Coaching carousel: Who does LSU hire? Is it Tom Herman to Texas?
Once this weekend’s results become final, the coaching carousel will start to spin furiously as administrators make their final decisions and coaches will be free to officially pursue other opportunities.
Behind the scenes, conversations have been going on for weeks between athletics directors, agents and search firms planning for every possibility. But there are still plenty of question marks in a very fluid process, and there are always a few surprises along the way. Here are some of the key pivot points for how the next week might play out.
What happens if LSU strikes out on Jimbo Fisher?
We should know pretty quickly whether Fisher’s refusal to flatly deny interest in LSU was a negotiating ploy or foreshadowing. If it’s the former and he stays at Florida State, the LSU coaching search becomes a very different animal. Surely athletics director Joe Alleva has a Plan B, but he is also under extreme pressure to come up with a home run hire. That means grabbing someone who has a proven ability to compete at the highest level, which simply isn’t easy to come by.
If LSU is thinking big, it has to at least check with Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. But assuming Stoops says no as he always has to other opportunities, there are very few logical candidates with a strong enough résumé to really excite the LSU fan base. According to a Paste BN Network report, LSU is moving in the direction of Houston coach Tom Herman, who so far has been mostly seen as Texas' top candidate.
There’s a lot of noise about Brian Kelly being interested in an escape route from Notre Dame, but his stock isn’t as high as it once was. What about Mike Gundy, who is closing in on his fifth 10-plus win season in the last seven years? It would be weird in a way to replace Les Miles with another Oklahoma State coach, but he’s got the offense and swagger to compete with the likes of Nick Saban. And given Gundy’s hot/cold relationship with booster T. Boone Pickens, there’s at least a perception that he’s gettable.
Is Herman really a “done deal” to Texas?
Probably not quite as much as the conventional wisdom, but in the end it’s still by far the most likely outcome. Texas, which thought it could land Nick Saban last time it had an opening, would be foolish not to at least gauge interest of the top of the top-level coaches. (Can you imagine how big Dabo Swinney, who has a lot of Mack Brown’s best qualities as a recruiter and head coach, would win in Austin?) But Herman and Texas just seems like a marriage that has been percolating too long not to happen.
If it does, Houston immediately becomes the most attractive Group of Five opening and probably better than several Power Five jobs. Current Houston offensive coordinator Major Applewhite and defensive coordinator Todd Orlando would likely get consideration, along with some of the top young offensive minds in the game like Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley and Troy’s Neal Brown.
Will Larry Fedora end up somewhere besides North Carolina?
Despite agreeing to a contract extension through 2022 last December, there has been constant speculation that Fedora will be on the move. The list of better situations this cycle, however, isn’t that long. LSU would be a no-brainer for him, but realistically a few people would have to say no before he becomes a prime candidate there. If Texas A&M or Oklahoma State came open, Fedora (who grew up in College Station) would make a lot of sense.
If Fedora were to leave, North Carolina becomes an interesting potential domino. Current defensive coordinator Gene Chizik, Tulsa’s Philip Montgomery, Arkansas State’s Blake Anderson and Western Michigan’s P.J. Fleck would be logical candidates.
What’s Charlie Strong’s next move?
If the end plays out as expected at Texas, he’ll have no shortage of options. He could certainly pull a Will Muschamp and be someone’s defensive coordinator for a year or two, but don’t discount the possibility of Strong landing on his feet as a head coach right away. One spot that would make sense is Cincinnati, where Tommy Tuberville seems unlikely to keep his job. He would also be a great fit at South Florida if Willie Taggart gets a Power Five opportunity, as Strong’s recruiting ties in the state could pay off in a big way.
How big can Oregon go?
The reports of Nike founder Phil Knight throwing $10 million at a coach were always more fantasy than reality, given that no coach actually worth $10 million would take the job in the first place. But it’s still highly likely the Ducks will be searching for a new coach, and the question will be whether they will be tempted to remain within their insular culture (UCF’s Scott Frost would realistically be the only option there) or start anew.
Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen would make a lot of sense there, as he’s an offensive innovator who has proved that he can win at a high level with a recruiting system that emphasizes talent identification and development, which is key to success at a place like Oregon. Mullen has probably squeezed all he can out of the Mississippi State job, and if a New Englander can fit in well in Starkville why not Eugene? Mark Helfrich's predecessor certainly showed it's possible.
Where do things stand in the Group of Five?
The American has become a premier spot for coaches to prove themselves, and South Florida’s Willie Taggart, Temple’s Matt Rhule, Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo, Tulsa’s Montgomery are all attractive commodities. SMU’s Chad Morris appears to be the favorite for the Baylor job, and obviously Herman is likely to move on. This league could look significantly different in a couple weeks.
The Mountain West should be relatively stable, though Air Force’s Troy Calhoun is a candidate at Purdue, Boise State’s Bryan Harsin could be in the mix if Oregon opens and San Diego State’s Rocky Long is 66. Don’t be surprised if San Jose State fires Ron Caragher.
In the MAC, Rod Carey is expected back at Northern Illinois despite this year’s 4-7 record, and Miami’s Chuck Martin saved his job after an 0-6 start. Besides Fleck, the only real candidate to move up is first-year Toledo coach Jason Candle.
Other Group of Five jobs that could/will likely open include UTEP, Florida Atlantic and Rice. There has also been chatter Georgia Southern isn’t happy with Tyson Summers’ first season, though it would be costly to buy him out.
FAUX PAS OF THE WEEK
It is abundantly clear these days that despite improving Tennessee’s win total each of his four seasons, there is a large disconnect between head coach Butch Jones and the Volunteers’ fan base. Jones first made himself the butt of jokes on Monday from Tennessee fans and non-Tennessee fans when he said the Vols’ senior class had won the “biggest championship and that’s the championship of life” despite losing out on the SEC East to Florida.
Then, in an attempt to clarify on Wednesday, Jones pushed back, telling reporters he’s “still amazed that when I talk to people and I bring up the success of this program, it’s minimized. I don’t understand how it can be minimized, from the graduation to being 14-3. I don’t know. I don’t get it.”
Jones is the rare species of objectively successful and ridiculously wealthy college football coach who constantly needs validation and appreciation. And that’s not a great trait at a program like Tennessee, which is historically among the 10 or 15 most successful of all time and has a passionate fan base that craves a return to SEC and national championship contention. You need thick skin to survive at a program like that, and you get paid $4 million per year to take the criticism — whether it’s warranted or not.
Yes, Tennessee fans have high (and maybe unrealistic) expectations, but that doesn’t make them unique. And while it’s fair to recognize that Jones has made progress and brought Tennessee back into the discussion, it’s also not some over-the-top critique to also say the Vols under Jones have left some wins on the table and not quite maximized their potential.
YOUR WEEKLY HARBAUGH
This year marks the 30th anniversary of Jim Harbaugh guaranteeing a win against Ohio State in his final season playing for Michigan, which seems rather benign these days but was a pretty big deal at that time. “I guarantee it,” the young Harbaugh said. “We’ll beat Ohio State and will be in Pasadena on Jan. 1.” Harbaugh delivered on the guarantee — barely. Michigan won that game 26-24 needing a missed field goal with a minute remaining to preserve the victory. It went to the Rose Bowl but lost to Arizona State to finish the season 10-2.
A lot has changed in three decades, and Harbaugh seemed intent not to say much about anything this week leading up to “The Game.” But he did offer an interesting response on the Big Ten teleconference when asked about how he would handle a player who made a Harbaugh-esque guarantee. “Having done it,” he said, “I don’t recommend it.”
DUD OF THE WEEK
After playing such an ambitious non-conference schedule with an annual game against Notre Dame and typically another Power Five opponent (this year it was Kansas State), it’s hilarious to see Stanford’s season end with such a thud against a 36-point underdog in 3-8 Rice. Assuming a win, Stanford will finish 9-3 and have a chance in its bowl game to reach double-digit victories for the fifth time in David Shaw’s six years.
Subplot: If Rice makes a coaching change, its athletics director Joe Karlgaard has deep Stanford ties and could look to Shaw’s staff for a replacement. Offensive coordinator Mike Bloomgren could make some sense there.
TOP 10 GAMES IN WEEK 13