2022 Kentucky Derby: How to turn $100 bet into a profitable venture at the Run for the Roses
LOUISVILLE — From a handicapping and wagering standpoint, there are two different paths you can choose in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
The first way to analyze the race would be to frame everything around Zandon and Epicenter as two horses on a different level than the rest of the field, necessitating their involvement in all bets. The downside, of course, is that the favorites finishing 1-2 would diminish the chances of a major financial score.
The other way to look at this Derby is as a free-for-all where 10 or 12 horses could legitimately win the race, opening up the potential for huge paydays.
If we can pick the right one, we can hopefully turn a $100 bankroll for the race into a nice profit .
Let’s start by narrowing the thought process by throwing out the horses that we don't want to use at all.
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No. 2 Happy Jack hasn’t shown enough ability to compete in this race. Toss.
This task seems like too much for No. 4 Summer Is Tomorrow, who gave way down the stretch in the UAE Derby. Toss.
No. 9 Tiz the Bomb has shown promise on grass and synthetic surfaces but was a no-show on dirt in the Holy Bull in February. Toss.
No. 11 Pioneer of Medina will be a pace factor but never really challenged Epicenter in his last two races in Louisiana. Toss.
No. 13 Simplification is a nice horse but was soundly beaten twice in Florida by White Abarrio. Toss.
No. 14 Barber Road has been really consistent in his career but will need a much different gear to compete here that he hasn't shown yet. Toss.
No. 17 Classic Causeway is going to be at or nor the lead, but his fade to 11th in the Florida Derby is a big concern. Toss.
This looks like a reach for No. 18 Tawny Port, who got into the Derby by beating a weak field in the Lexington Stakes just a couple of weeks ago. Toss.
No. 21 Rich Strike drew into the field after Ethereal Road's late scratch. His trainer, Eric Reed, says it all: “We are entering and hoping and praying." Toss.
That still leaves 11 horses, which is too many to use in our wagers. These will be the more difficult cuts.
No. 5 Smile Happy had no excuse either time against Zandon or Epicenter in his last two races, finishing a well-beaten second both times. He just got out-finished. That’s a pretty good indicator that he’s just not good enough.
We’re also going to toss No. 6 Messier, whose monster performance on Feb. 6 in the Bob Lewis Stakes against a mediocre field looks like an outlier. Didn’t love the way he finished in the Santa Anita Derby.
No. 16 Cyberknife caught a pretty soft field in the Arkansas Derby, and his speed figures are not up to snuff for what this field is capable of.
No. 19 Zozos has a lot of potential, but getting stuck in that deep outside post could compromise his chances if he’s committed to running up front as he’s did last out in the Louisiana Derby. He's probably not ready for this assignment.
Our last cut is the most controversial: No. 12 Taiba, who is an impressive 2-for-2 and clearly has a ton of talent. But going from a six-furlong debut on March 5 to the Kentucky Derby on May 7 seems like way too much to overcome. Maybe he wins and he’s horse racing's next great star, but he’s running against a ton of history.
That leaves a more manageable six horses in play that we can separate into three tiers.
Top tier/most likely to win: Epicenter, White Abarrio, Zandon
Wildcards who could finish anywhere: Crown Pride, Charge It
Unlikely to win but could hit the board: Mo Donegal
With that setup, it’s hard to pick against Epicenter, who showed everything you’d want to see from a Derby contender this winter in Louisiana. So our first ticket, let’s key him on top of a $4 trifecta with White Abarrio and Zandon second and White Abarrio, Zandon, Crown Pride, Charge It and Mo Donegal in third. That’s a $32 ticket.
Let’s also add a $1 trifecta with Epicenter on top and the other five horses in second and third to cover our bases. That’s another $20.
At 10-1 on the morning line, White Abarrio offers more betting value than Zandon and may just be the better horse if he runs back to his effort in the Florida Derby. Let’s put $12 to win on him and add a $3 exacta with White Abarrio over the other five horses for another $15.
That leaves us with $21 to play with.
Among the longshots in the race, the Japanese horse Crown Pride has been training superbly. But there’s no way to know until the gates open Saturday if he’s good enough. Charge It came off his first win on Feb. 12 and made a big jump up in the Florida Derby, where he finished a good but troubled second to White Abarrio. Some of those troubles were of his own making, as he struggled to keep a straight line in the stretch but still closed to within a length of the winner. But if Charge It takes a leap forward, he could absolutely win this race at a huge price.
We’ll invest $11 to win on him and add $2 exactas over the other five.
That will exhaust our bankroll, but hopefully one of those bets will hit and turn Derby Day into a profitable venture.