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Prediction: Gracie Gold or Ashley Wagner will end U.S. medal drought


ST. PAUL — For nine consecutive world figure skating championships, going all the way back to when George W. Bush was landing triple salchows in the Oval Office, U.S. women figure skaters have failed to do something that once was as American as Dorothy Hamill’s haircut: win a medal at the worlds.

Not the gold. Just any medal. Silver, bronze. We’re not asking for much here. Just one podium spot of the 27 available since Kimmie Meissner finished first and Sasha Cohen third at the 2006 worlds in Calgary a month after the Torino Olympics.

Michelle Kwan won nine world medals by herself, five of them gold. Because she made it look so easy, we all thought it was simple, a U.S. birthright of sorts. Put on skates, win a national title or two, then go to the world stage and paint it red, white and blue.

So what happened? Japan happened. South Korea happened. Now Russia is ascending again, with a revolving cast of teenage characters that seems to change with the seasons. And, try as they might, an earnest group of American women who grew up in Kwan’s shadow found themselves finishing fourth, fifth, seventh, ninth — year after year after year.

The next world championships are going to be a home game for the Americans, being held in Boston this spring, and I have a prediction: either Gracie Gold or Ashley Wagner is going to win a medal there. I don’t mean to count out 17-year-old Polina Edmunds, who nearly won her first national title Saturday night, but her international resume is nowhere near as strong as Gold’s or Wagner’s, and her skating is not yet as mature.

Gold, 20, rode a majestic long program to her second national title in three years, while Wagner, the 24-year-old three-time national champion, eased into third to qualify for her sixth world championships.

If Gold nails both of her world programs as she did that long program, she’s on the podium in Boston. And if Wagner conjures up performances from past Grand Prix finals, where she won medals three years in a row against the best in the world, she’s there, especially if Gold isn’t.

They’re both good enough to do it, and perhaps even more important, they are tired of having to answer questions about why they haven’t.

“I think at this point, if we had that answer, it wouldn’t be a nine-year drought,” Wagner said. “I think that the international scene is so strong, and it’s getting stronger every single year. I think that it is never a question whether or not the U.S. ladies are capable of being on that podium, it’s more a question of when we are going to step up to the challenge. In years past, consistently we’ve faltered in one program or the other, so consistency has been the challenge. This year, it’s going to be about going out there and nailing those triple-triple combinations and putting up the technical marks and performing the hell out of those programs.”

Gold drew a laugh at a post-competition news conference when she said, “Personally, I can only be held accountable for three of those years.”

She continued: “We’ve had great performances at the world championships, so while that statistic is really sad, it’s not as if U.S. women have been irrelevant to the sport. It’s just that elusive title. Last year was definitely my bad. ... Going into Boston, another fourth or fifth place feels irrelevant to me. If I’m not on the podium, I feel like I didn’t do anything.”

Wagner has always been the most quotable skater of her generation, but Gold is coming on fast. These are strong athletes who speak forcefully, honestly and with no regrets.

Now they have to skate that way.