Injuries overshadow fantasy tour of spring training

TAMPA – Spring training is a time for optimism … and anxiety.

We can argue about how much spring training stats really matter, but the most important factor for fantasy owners in March is seeing their players make it to opening day healthy.

In leagues that hold their drafts well before the regular season starts (such as the League of Alternative Baseball Reality), injuries can be devastating because the player pool has been picked clean.

This month, I had a chance to spend time in Arizona and Florida checking in on spring training sites, talking to players and catching a few exhibition games. And the subject of injuries always seemed to crop up — especially with pitchers.

In the American League, the free agent defections of Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields had already thinned the group of upper-level starters — even before a pair of season-ending injuries made things worse.

Yu Darvish of the Texas Rangers lasted one inning in his first spring start before exiting with what turned out to be a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL).

"We came to camp pretty pleased with our starting depth and some of the options we had competing for the fifth spot — now competing for two spots," general manager Jon Daniels said, adding that making a trade was a possibility. "We're going to look internally first. I don't think you rule anything out."

Darvish was one of the rare pitchers able to succeed at hitter-friendly Globe Life Ballpark, leading the AL two seasons ago with 277 strikeouts and finishing second in Cy Young Award voting.

His absence bumps everyone else up in the AL starting pitcher rankings and the Rangers rotation.

Even in deep or AL-only leagues, Ross Detwiler, Nick Tepesch and Anthony Ranaudo aren't worth more than a reserve-round pick, even if they open the year in the Rangers rotation.

Fantasy owners were fully aware of Darvish's health concerns after the Rangers shut him down early last season with inflammation in his pitching elbow. But the freak injury suffered by promising Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman came with no warning.

Stroman tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his knee during fielding drills and will miss the season.

After winning 11 games and recording a 3.65 ERA in 26 appearances (20 starts) last season, Stroman was a popular breakout pick for 2015. The loss hits keeper league owners especially hard since his considerable upside makes him worth holding for the future. Unfortunately, that means using a valuable keeper spot on someone who will provide no value in 2015.

Stroman's injury also has several ripple effects on the Jays pitching staff. Another live young arm, Aaron Sanchez, was in line to be the team's closer after posting a 1.09 ERA in 33 innings over the second half of last year.

But Sanchez's future is as a starter — and the transition most likely will begin sooner rather than later now that Stroman's spot is open. Sanchez and Drew Hutchison could be above-average fantasy starters, even more valuable than veteran rotation mates R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle.

The Jays' fifth starter also could have fantasy value. Marco Estrada has been hampered by the home run ball throughout his career, but his peripheral stats have been solid otherwise. And keep an eye on top prospect Daniel Norris, who was impressive over three minor league levels last season.

The National League wasn't immune to the season-ending injury bug with New York Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler tearing his UCL. Wheeler struck out 187 batters in 185¹/₃ innings last season and, at age 24, seemed poised to take the next step in 2015.

The injury will likely solidify Dillon Gee's spot in the rotation, but the more important ramification is that it also moves pitching prospects Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz one step closer to making their major league debuts.

Finally, one of the pitchers fantasy owners are watching most intently this spring got off to a great start in his initial appearance.

Masahiro Tanaka of the New York Yankees breezed through two innings against the Atlanta Braves, retiring all six batters he faced and throwing 15 of his 19 pitches for strikes.

"Overall, I think it was good," Tanaka said through an interpreter. "Probably the best part was that I was able to get first-pitch strikes."

Tanaka posted a 12-4 record and 2.51 ERA in 18 starts in 2014 before partially tearing the UCL in his pitching elbow. He and the Yankees opted against surgery, and he returned to the mound for two starts in September.

The big risk with Tanaka is that no one knows how long the ligament will hold up under the rigors of the regular season. We'll need a little more evidence, but he has shown enough pinpoint control and an ability to keep hitters off balance for fantasy owners to seriously consider rolling the dice.

Spring superlatives

Most of our analysis as fantasy baseball owners relies on stats far more than scouting.

But spring training is a chance to give a little weight to the other side of the equation.

After seeing 11 games (five in Arizona, six in Florida), the most frequent question I've been asked is simply, "Who impressed you the most?"

The answer isn't quite so simple.

Most times, the players we really want to see in the exhibition games are on the field only for a few innings. And every stat-head knows the inherent dangers of making projections from small sample sizes.

So here are some of the things that made an impression on me as a fantasy owner over the past two weeks.

•Best prospect: Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers. It appears Pederson will start the season in the minor leagues, but he'll be a valuable member of the Dodgers soon enough. He has a solid line-drive swing that looks similar to Carlos Gonzalez's.

Pederson's value on defense also was apparent, even when he was serving as the Dodgers designated hitter this spring. In one game, Andre Ethier started in center field and misplayed a deep fly ball to center that was ruled a double. It isn't a stretch to think Pederson would have made the play with ease.

But the talk of spring training has been Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, who began the week leading everyone with six home runs. But the one time I saw Bryant, he was overshadowed by catching prospect Kyle Schwarber.

The fourth overall pick in June's draft hit a grand slam off veteran Ryan Vogelsong in his first official at-bat in a Cubs uniform — providing another example of how deep the Cubs farm system is.

•Most intriguing player:Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates. After hitting 40 home runs last season, Kang is looking to become the first position player to make the jump from the South Korean league to the majors. He did hit a homer in his first spring game, but his average last week when I saw him was in the .230s.

Starting at third base and hitting cleanup, Kang was hit by a pitch by the Boston Red Sox's Clay Buchholz his first time up and delivered a solid single the next time.

His best chance of making the team seems to be as a utility player — third base, second base, shortstop — because Jordy Mercer has done a steady job starting at shortstop, where Kang played last season.

Can he make the transition? And, if so, will his power translate?

According to the statistical translations by Baseball Prospectus co-founder Clay Davenport, Kang's 2014 season equates to a .856 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) in the majors.

"You can definitely see the power potential is there," Mercer says. "As far as right now, he can play and he's going to be a big asset to our team."

•Most overlooked player: Ryan Howard, PhiladelphiaPhillies. He hit 23 homers and drove in 95 runs last season, but with the Phillies offense projected to be one of the worst in the majors this season, fantasy owners are understandably skeptical of 35-year-old Howard.

But he said he feels fully healthy in spring training for the first time in two years. In the game I saw, he hit a two-run homer and made an impressive leaping catch on defense against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Howard has power, something that is in fairly short supply these days. And he probably won't cost a lot on draft day.

•Most impressive home run:David Ortiz, Boston RedSox. Big Papi hasn't lost it. He crushed a pitch from minor leaguer Ryan Beckman of the Pittsburgh Pirates in Bradenton, Fla. It was one of the longest homers I've ever seen in a spring training game.

•Pressure pitching performances: Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays and Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals. The day after Stroman's season-ending injury, Hutchison limited a Baltimore Orioles lineup stocked with seven regulars to no runs and two hits in four innings of work.

Battling for the No. 5 starter's job in the Cardinals rotation, Martinez allowed a run on three hits in 2²/₃ innings against the Houston Astros. But manager Mike Matheny was impressed by what he saw.

Martinez's arm strength isn't an issue with an average fastball of 96.7 mph last season.

Martinez seems to be slightly ahead of Marco Gonzales and Jaime Garcia after an impressive stint in the Dominican Winter League (3-0, 1.86 ERA in 29 innings including the playoffs.)