Don't get too comfy with closers
Every year there is a great deal of turnover at the closer position, which affects traditional Rotisserie teams greatly where total saves is a category. Many closer roles have the potential to change between now and June — and that's without accounting for injuries.
Here are some of the incumbents who are at risk for a variety of reasons.
• LaTroy Hawkins, Colorado Rockies. Hawkins, 42, is projected to have fewer than six strikeouts per nine innings and rarely, if ever, does the smoke-and-mirrors routine span two seasons.
Behind Hawkins, Adam Ottavino is a solid reliever with a better skill set. Ottavino strikes out more batters, has a better strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio and keeps the ball in the park. Another 40-year-old, Rafael Betancourt, is having a decent spring in his return. Hawkins' days are numbered.
• Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers. He is scraping by with some OK innings after a bobble early in spring. But the projections are not great, with a 2.4 K/BB ratio, compared with setup man Joakim Soria's 4.7.
Soria has been successful as a closer with the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers, so Nathan figures to be on a short leash as the Tigers look to repeat as champions of a much-improved American League Central.
• Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets. The closer of choice, Bobby Parnell, remains on the shelf for the start of the season. Mejia survived in the role last year, but he didn't light the world on fire.
When Parnell returns — possibly earlier than his late-April due date — he could return to close if Mejia struggles. Some predict it outright, but the skills are pretty close, so there are no guarantees either way.
• Dellin Betances, New York Yankees. He and left-hander Andrew Miller are an interesting pair. The Yankees are blessed with two of the best relievers in baseball, and figuring out how to deploy them might warrant something other than the traditional eighth inning-ninth inning setup.
If both get saves, Betances will be overvalued, that fantastic skill set notwithstanding. Make sure you are getting what you pay for — skills plus the correct allotment of saves.
•Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants. Casilla is reliable but unspectacular, with his 2.4 K/BB ratio asking for replacement. Sergio Romo is elite but far less reliable. He has a higher strikeout rate and more than double the K/BB ratio when healthy.
The Giants tend to go with the hot hand over the course of the season, and these two have flip-flopped before. Don't be surprised if they do it again.
•Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays. With lefty Jake McGee on the disabled list, Boxberger is expected to close initially. He has th e skill set to succeed, but all bets are off when McGee returns.
Both relievers have huge strikeout (over 11 per nine innings) and K/BB (over 4.0) rates, so whichever one does not get saves after McGee's return will have a disappointed owner. A mix-and-match approach from new manager Kevin Cash could disappoint both owners.
• Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies. Fantasy owners are buying Ken Giles as if he is the closer, anticipating a Papelbon trade. But Giles will start the season in a setup role. Despite his obvious skills, you will want to temper your enthusiasm to buy only those skills — and not pay for saves he hasn't yet produced.
• Neftali Feliz, Rangers. He returned late in 2014 from injury and scraped by. Feliz is throwing harder this spring and could hang in there, but he is projected to give up far too many home runs. Kyuji Fujikawa is in the wings and has potentially strong skills, but he, too, returns from injury and did not fare well late in 2014.
It sets up as an interesting skills case: What happens if Feliz fails (as one might expect) and Fujikawa is not pitching well either? There's always Tanner Scheppers and others, but the Rangers (and Feliz owners) certainly have to be concerned if Feliz starts giving up home runs.
• Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays. Injuries have pressed Aaron Sanchez into the starting rotation. Behind Cecil is fellow lefty Aaron Loup and not much else. Although Cecil is fine, the moving parts around him are not.
This could be a situation in which the Blue Jays acquire a starter and move Sanchez back to the bullpen, especially if he isn't faring well in the rotation. It could also be that the Jays find bullpen help elsewhere.
Either way, Cecil has to be considered temporary until the rest of the roles settle in.
• Committee, Los Angeles Dodgers. Kenley Jansen will start the year on the disabled list. His return date depends on when he can throw, when his velocity returns and when his command returns — all independent issues.
In the meantime, the Dodgers have Joel Peralta, Sergio Santos, Chris Hatcher and Brandon League. Even Yimi Garcia could be a candidate.
Jansen is not at risk of losing the job, but his uncertain return puts a lot of save opportunities up for grabs.
• Tyler Clippard, Oakland Athletics. Sean Doolittle will start the season on the disabled list.
Clippard will man the ship until Doolittle returns, and it shouldn't take too long.
Fantasy owners who have room to roster both should do so.
Others to watch
Addison Reed has been shaky for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Francisco Rodriguez was late getting to Milwaukee Brewers camp and is behind schedule.
The Houston Astros are counting on Luke Gregerson, but Chad Qualls is ready to step in should he struggle to start the season. Koji Uehara won't be ready for opening day with the Boston Red Sox.
Even some of the best closers have questions. Greg Holland's velocity is down with the Kansas City Royals. And it's even conceivable that the rebuilding Atlanta Braves could trade Craig Kimbrel.
Closers move around because of an ineffective week, a nagging injury, an emerging skill set or a manager's whimsy. Stay on top of these situations so you aren't caught flat-footed when opportunity knocks.