Fantasy: Location matters in the batting order

Already this season, we have seen some names in curious places on lineup cards. But does batting order really matter?

According to research by Bob Berger at BaseballHQ.com, the answer is yes. Berger's research showed that, for each spot in the batting order a player drops, he will lose roughly 15 to 20 plate appearances over the course of a season. In the extreme, a drop from leadoff to ninth in the order could result in a loss of 140 plate appearances, a significant reduction in his opportunity to accumulate counting stats.

Moreover, Berger found that batting order had an impact on runs, stolen bases and RBI, beyond what could be attributed to the fewer plate appearances alone. Leadoff hitters will have more chances to steal bases and score but fewer opportunities to drive them in. Instead, those RBI opportunities will go somewhat disproportionately to those who land in spots three, four and five in the order.

Of course, the positive effects of ascending the batting order will be fleeting if a player does not perform well enough to maintain his manager's trust. Thus, as we look at some of the surprise early-season batting-order beneficiaries, we'll assess not just a potential boost to their stats but also their chances to hang on to their lineup spot over the long haul.

National League

Now that A.J. Pollock has settled in atop the Arizona Diamondbacks' lineup, he can maximize the benefit of his first-rate wheels. He has been a little slow out of the gate on the basepaths (1-for-3 on steal attempts through Sunday), but stealing 30-plus should be well within reach. No one on the Arizona roster is likely to bump him from the spot.

The Atlanta Braves seem committed to having a speedster atop their lineup. Alas, neither Eric Young Jr. nor Cameron Maybin has shown the sort of on-base ability that would make either a long-term answer. It's too bad, because stolen bases by the bucketful likely would result. Meanwhile, after a season hitting leadoff for the Baltimore Orioles, Nick Markakis could see his RBI totals rebound … if the players ahead of him don't make outs.

The Chicago Cubs might have waited the requisite 12 days to add rookie Kris Bryant to their roster for contractual reasons, but they wasted little time inserting him as their cleanup hitter. If he is as good as his monster spring suggests, the RBI could pile up quickly. Meanwhile, leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler never has lacked for speed, but a strong stolen-base success rate has been tough to come by. His new team appears more inclined to give him the green light, and he has rewarded his fantasy owners. If he can stay healthy, Fowler could top 20 steals for the first time since 2009.

After hitting second most of last season with the Philadelphia Phillies, Jimmy Rollins is back in the familiar leadoff role and getting more frequent green lights (3-for-4 in steal attempts) with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Though he is 36, a return to 30 stolen bases is not out of the question, if he remains healthy. Meanwhile, Howie Kendrick has been hitting cleanup behind white-hot Adrian Gonzalez. Don't expect too many home runs from Kendrick, but with a batting average at or near .300, if he holds that lineup spot all year, he could surpass his career high of 75 RBI.

With the New York Mets, Curtis Granderson would seem to be an ill fit atop the lineup, since the last time he had as many as 10 stolen bases was in 2011. Juan Lagares might have superior wheels, but his reticence to get on base via the walk might be holding him back from an opportunity to bat higher in the lineup.

The Phillies might have found a leadoff hitter in Rule 5 pick Odubel Herrera. Given the weakness behind him in the lineup, Herrera might get less of a boost in runs than some of his peers. But watching his stolen-base totals climb might be one of the few things to generate excitement in Philadelphia this season.

Leadoff seems like an odd landing spot for the San Diego Padres' Wil Myers, who came up through the minors with elite power credentials but not much of a stolen-base track record. Myers has taken advantage of the new role (two stolen bases in three tries), but any help he provides in steals might be offset by the loss of RBI opportunities.

American League

In Markakis' absence, the Baltimore Orioles have installed Alejandro De Aza as their leadoff hitter, at least against right-handed pitching. While De Aza has a bit of speed, his lack of success on the basepaths might curtail his running opportunities, and his on-base skills are not ideal. Still, given the lack of another player who would be a natural fit in that spot, De Aza could hold on to the role and be in line for a return to the 80-plus runs he achieved in 2012 and 2013.

Plenty of buzz accompanied Mookie Betts' installment as the Boston Red Sox leadoff hitter. While he has made noise with his feet, including stealing two bases on one play, he might need to pick up his on-base pace to remain there.

With a number of their big boppers mired in early-season slumps, there has been considerable flux in the Houston Astros lineup behind elite leadoff hitter Jose Altuve. But the team has not been shy about giving heart-of-the-order opportunities to shortstop Jed Lowrie and third baseman Luis Valbuena. Either or both could surprise in the RBI department.

After floating around the lineup in 2014, Lorenzo Cain has settled in as the Kansas City Royals' No. 3 hitter, and the run-producing role has agreed with him. He is on pace to pass his career high of 53 RBI, and as a bonus he is running (3-for-4 in stolen bases).

The uncertain status of Josh Hamilton has created an opportunity for Matt Joyce and David Freese. Joyce has been hitting cleanup against right-handed pitching, with Freese moving up from fifth to fourth against southpaws. Freese has done a little better job seizing the opportunity, with three home runs and seven RBI.

After spending most of last season hitting first or second, the Oakland Athletics' Ben Zobrist was put back into the No. 3 slot, where his RBI totals should rebound after dipping to 52 last season. But the speedy center-field platoon of Sam Fuld and Craig Gentry might not survive the June return of Coco Crisp.

Nothing about Asdrubal Cabrera screams heart-of-the-order threat, but the rebuilding Tampa Bay Rays don't have many other options. Thus, his role should be secure, and for what it is worth, he does have a 92-RBI season on his résumé (2011).