It's time to rethink our preseason rankings
There's a fine line fantasy owners walk every year between being patient with a slow-starting team and fixing something before it's too late.
I don't mean to be disrespectful to those trade offers that hit my in-box after the first week. But unless my team suffers a major injury, I'm probably not going to do much more than pick up a few free agents and juggle my starting lineup over the first month of the season.
My NL Tout Wars team is a good example. After two weeks, I was in last place — and not just casually lagging behind the field, either. I was trailing the 11th place team by 12.5 points in the standings and was more than 60 points behind the leader.
A month later, that same team (plus only the additions of Yimi Garcia, Kris Negron and Cliff Pennington) begins the week in first place with a 1.5-point lead.
But being patient with your team shouldn't prevent you from looking forward. An internal alarm clock tends to remind us right around the middle of May that it's time to re-evaluate what we thought we knew on opening day ... and how closely that corresponds to what has happened this season.
For example, it's fair to say Nelson Cruz, Joey Votto and Wil Myers are a little better than we thought they would be. Meanwhile, a surprising number of ace pitchers haven't been anywhere near as dominant over the first six weeks as we expected.
And what do we make of top rookies Joc Pederson, Kris Bryant and Devon Travis? They're not only getting regular playing time, they're also hitting in prime lineup spots. And producing.
Six weeks into the 2015 season, it's time to start the evaluation process again.
A season snapshot
The first step in formulating an updated set of rankings is taking into account what has happened.
At the beginning of the week, this season's top 10 performers were:
1. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
2. OF Nelson Cruz
3. OF Mike Trout
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez
5. OF Justin Upton
6. 2B Jose Altuve
7. OF Bryce Harper
8. SP Felix Hernandez
9. 2B Dee Gordon
10. SP Dallas Keuchel
With the exception of Keuchel (4-0, 1.39 ERA), each of those players was among the top 70 in Paste BN's preseason rankings. (The Houston Astros left-hander was No. 202.)
While players' current statistics can give us an idea of what to expect, fantasy owners have to remember that those numbers are already in the bank.
Cruz is No. 2 now, but trading for him won't net you any of his American League-leading 14 home runs. He might stay hot — and healthy — all season, but you only get what he does from this point forward.
That's the same mind-set that goes into formulating rankings for the balance of the season. Do we trust what we've seen, or is there a correction on the horizon?
The new order
So let's get to the fun part. To add context, each player's preseason ranking and his year-to-date ranking (through Saturday) are in parentheses.
There isn't a tremendous amount of movement at the top. Harper's recent streak of six home runs in three games might be giving him an added boost, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if this is the season the 22-year-old puts everything together.
Hot starts from Cruz, Votto and Gonzalez inspire enough confidence to vault them into the top 20.
On the other hand, it's too early to write off slow-starting preseason favorites such as Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gomez, Buster Posey, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano and Corey Kluber.
1. Trout (preseason: 1, current: 3)
2. Goldschmidt (3, 1)
3. Giancarlo Stanton (4, 18)
4. Miguel Cabrera (8, 39)
5. Altuve (17, 6)
6. Harper (28, 7)
7. Clayton Kershaw (5, 159)
8. Anthony Rizzo (18, 12)
9. Adam Jones (9, 38)
10. Jose Abreu (7, 117)
11. Hernandez (13, 8)
12. Max Scherzer (12, 35)
13. Hanley Ramirez (10, 32)
14. Jacoby Ellsbury (27, 22)
15. Cruz (66, 2)
16. Upton (29, 5)
17. Gonzalez (58, 4)
18. Josh Donaldson (30, 13)
19. Todd Frazier (33, 20)
20. Votto (43, 21)
21. Starling Marte (47, 42)
22. Michael Brantley (23, 60)
23. Nolan Arenado (41, 85)
24. Tulowitzki (16, 208)
25. Jose Bautista (14, 96)
26. Zack Greinke (37, 11)
27. Gomez (6, NR)
28. Buster Posey (25, 213)
29. Eric Hosmer (76, 17)
30. Matt Kemp (44, 59)
31. Madison Bumgarner (21, 92)
32. Matt Harvey (77, 30)
33. Ryan Braun (20, 82)
34. Edwin Encarnacion (11, 133)
35. Johnny Cueto (42, 36)
36. Sonny Gray (70, 14)
37. Freddie Freeman (38, 41)
38. Dee Gordon (69, 9)
39. Beltre (22, NR)
40. Cano (15, NR)
41. Ian Kinsler (55, 105)
42. Chris Archer (131, 43)
43. Matt Holliday (87, 69)
44. Brett Gardner (120, 29)
45. David Price (31, 193)
46. Gerrit Cole (92, 49)
47. Pederson (194, 27)
48. Manny Machado (99, 67)
49. Matt Carpenter (111, 25)
50. Kluber (32, NR)
Upon closer inspection, there are some big names missing from this list.
Andrew McCutchen (preseason rank: 2) drops all the way to No. 105, one spot ahead of another player with injury concerns, Anthony Rendon. Fantasy owners shouldn't give up on these two because they've demonstrated the kind of force they can be when healthy.
But what about some of this season's surprise performers who have given fantasy owners an unexpected boost?
• Pederson looks like the real deal with his combination of power and speed. He leads all rookies with nine home runs.
• Travis, the Toronto Blue Jays' second baseman, is 19th overall with a .287 average, seven homers and 24 RBI. Those numbers make him the front-runner for AL rookie of the year, but it's hard to see him maintaining that level all season.
Is he a better option than Rendon from this point forward? That's a tough call. I have Rendon at 106 and Travis at 107.
• Chicago Cubs third baseman Bryant worked his way up to No. 138 in the final preseason rankings. Now that he's in the majors and playing every day (and has finally hit his first big-league home run), he slots in at No. 78 overall.
• Oakland Athletics catcher Stephen Vogt wasn't among the preseason top 200 because he was only eligible at first base. But among catchers, he trails only the San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey and the Blue Jays' Russell Martin in our updated rankings.
• Houston Astros outfielder Jake Marisnick has secured an everyday role by hitting .330 with three homers and nine stolen bases. Even if he cools off, his defense in center field should keep him in the lineup. He's at No. 108 overall.
Most fantasy owners will look to the updated rankings to gauge trade values. Travis vs. Rendon, for example, is as close as you can get.
But the major difference between these rankings and the preseason ones is that during the year new information is available every day. And that data factors into what we can expect from players the rest of the way.
Follow Steve Gardner on Twitter: @SteveAGardner