Results can be tied to the radar gun
An essential part of any run to a fantasy championship involves identifying which early-season pitching performances can carry on throughout the year and which are likely to fizzle.
Typically, this is a matter of digging deeper than a pitcher's surface stats (wins, ERA, WHIP, etc.) and analyzing the underlying skills that can validate his current performance.
One indicator used at BaseballHQ.com is average fastball velocity. Specifically, we like to target pitchers who have had notable changes in fastball velocity from year to year. For example, a flamethrower who sits at 97 mph every year is less attractive to us than someone who has traditionally thrown in the low-90s and sees an increase to 94 mph. On the flip side, drops in velocity can hint that trouble, or a hidden injury, could be on the horizon.
Here's a list of notable early-season velocity gainers and losers, and how this might affect their outlook for the rest of 2015.
• Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels has seen his fastball velocity drop each of the last five seasons, and it's now to a level (83.6 mph) that wouldn't get him pulled him over on some state highways. Not surprisingly, Weaver's strikeout total has dropped dramatically in 2015 with 24 through 502/3 innings — well below his career rate of 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9).
Weaver routinely put up ace-level numbers in his peak seasons from 2010 to 2012, but he has seen a steady rise in recent years, and his 4.44 ERA this year is on pace to be a career worst. Weaver's continued velocity decline suggests that owners hoping for a renaissance season from the 32-year-old will be disappointed.
• Danny Salazar didn't even make the Cleveland Indians' opening-day roster, but his strong early-season performance indicates he'll be a fixture in their rotation for some time. Salazar's 4.06 ERA through six starts has been inflated by an abnormally high home run-per-fly ball rate. There are plenty of encouraging signs that suggest better days are coming.
Salazar's strikeout rate has exploded to 12.4 K/9, and a key factor has been an increase in fastball velocity to 95.4 mph. His electric fastball has been combined with considerable control gains (six walks in 372/3 innings), which can be seen in his excellent 8.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB). At 25, Salazar has strong velocity and strikeout potential that offer plenty of fantasy upside for 2015 and beyond. He has ace-level skills.
•Two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants has been a shell of his former self in recent seasons. After three years of sub-3.00 ERAs between 2008 and 2011, Lincecum has been unable to break the 4.00 barrier in any season since, and his waning fastball velocity has played a major role. Lincecum is averaging 87.3 mph on the gun this season, well below the 90-plus mark we've seen throughout most of his career. As a result, Lincecum's current 7.1 K/9 is on pace to be the lowest of his career by a wide margin.
Lincecum seems to be adjusting for the lack of velocity by generating more ground balls. His 52% ground ball rate would be well above what he has put up before. At face value, Lincecum's 2.43 ERA might conjure memories of his Cy Young days, but his inability to get strikeouts suggests the hot start won't last.
• Jesse Chavez is off to a hot start with the Oakland Athletics, posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 372/3 innings. Chavez spent the first part of April pitching out of the bullpen, but he was bumped up to the rotation April 23. Chavez has benefited from a favorable .276 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), so while he might not sustain this level of performance, he's making some noticeable strides.
A key sign Chavez could be in for a good year is an increase in fastball velocity from 91.3 mph in 2014 to 93.1 mph this season. The result can be seen in his strikeout totals, as he's striking out nearly a batter per inning, which has resulted in a solid 2.9 K/BB. Chavez also has the benefit of pitching half of his games at pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum, so if he sticks in the rotation, there's plenty of room for profit this year.
• Alfredo Simon is enjoying his first season with the Detroit Tigers, going 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA through seven outings. The hot start comes on the heels of a strong 2014 performance in which he moved to the rotation and posted a 3.44 ERA over 1961/3 innings. However, an underlying fade in fastball velocity suggests trouble might be on the horizon. Simon's heater has routinely sat around 94 mph throughout his career, including last season in the rotation, but it has dropped to 92.3 mph in 2015. At 34 with minimal strikeout potential (5.9 K/9 in 2015), Simon has limited upside moving forward. He's more likely to post a 4.00-ish ERA the rest of the way than maintain his current performance.
• Though his 5.58 ERA through seven starts doesn't look all that exciting, Joe Kelly of the Boston Red Sox has made some impressive velocity gains early in 2015. In fact, Kelly's 96.1 mph average fastball velocity tops all other MLB starters, and it's up from his 94.7 mark in 2014. As a result, Kelly currently boasts a career-high 8.0 K/9 — his previous best was a 6.3 mark in 2012.
Kelly has had some issues with his control (4.0 walks per nine innings), though much of that can be attributed to one bad outing — a seven-walk performance against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 9. Kelly does a good job keeping the ball on the ground with a 52% career ground-ball rate, so there are signs of improvement ahead if he can hold the velocity gains. We don't see a major breakout on the horizon, but Kelly's slow start probably makes him available in deeper leagues, and he has the skills to post a sub-4.00 ERA the rest of the way.