Fantasy owners need to stay ahead of potential trade talks
As major league teams look to position themselves based on strengths and needs, the potential moves and trades in the upcoming months can have a significant impact on the playoff races. Research, anticipation and even speculation can pay dividends in your championship drive, so here are situations worth monitoring.
The Houston Astros have a first-place team in a mediocre American League West, where they are surprisingly solid postseason contenders. Their strengths include organizational player depth and versatility that is the envy of their divisional rivals. After tearing up Class AA, elite shortstop prospect Carlos Correa continues beating up on pitchers (with Class AAA Fresno) and advancing toward an inevitable second-half promotion to the majors. His arrival will force Jed Lowrie to another position or to the bench.
Slugging first baseman Jon Singleton has cut down on his swings and misses in Class AAA and posted his best numbers (14 home runs, 35/29 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 158 at-bats) in several years. His promotion and left-handed bat could pinch the playing time of right-handed Chris Carter (37 home runs in 2014 but hitting .170 entering Monday) and Evan Gattis (.201).
Or will it? What the Astros don't have is a solid back of the rotation, where mediocre Roberto Hernandez's 4.77 ERA through 54 2/3 innings looks shaky. Five different pitchers had appeared in the No. 5 rotation spot. Left-handed-hitting Preston Tucker has flashed power and plate skills, with a .324 batting average through 37 at-bats, along with an 12% walk rate, four doubles and two home runs. But he's certainly expendable for the right arm.
Speedy shortstop Jonathan Villar and powerful but contact-challenged minor league outfielder Domingo Santana would also seem to be available. Both players would likely get an extended opportunity on a new team, should the Astros attempt to use their position excess to acquire veteran starting pitching depth.
Injuries and a dismal start stamp the Oakland Athletics as rebuilders — and a potential trade match for the Astros. Free agent-to-be Scott Kazmir (3.09 ERA, 8.6 K/9 through 551/3 innings) is a fit for any pitching-needy contender, and his contract is one the financially conscious A's can do without. Moving Kazmir would extend the rotation life of Jesse Chavez (2.89 ERA through 432/3 innings), whose 8.5 K/9 rate makes a fine strikeout target. It would also accommodate the second-half return of A.J. Griffin, who posted two sub-4.00 ERAs and 21 wins over 2012-13 before having Tommy John elbow surgery.
After season-ending surgery for Hyun-Jin Ryu, the Los Angeles Dodgers are an obvious landing spot for Kazmir, Cole Hamels and most any other available and established starting pitcher. Behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, brittle Brett Anderson has been unable to reach the 50-innings mark in any of the past four seasons. And despite their decent initial rotation work, Carlos Frias and Mike Bolsinger had a combined total of 20 career starts and zero postseason experience entering Monday.
The NL West-leading Dodgers' financial resources make job security at the back of their current rotation look shaky. And like the Astros, they also have extra position players who could find themselves in better playing-time situations before the trade deadline. Part-time outfielder Andre Ethier entered Monday seemingly in the middle of an offensive rebirth, sporting a .915 OPS (on-base-plus-slugging percentage) with all metrics flashing positive.
Alex Guerrero had seven home runs and a .300 batting average through his first 80 at-bats, but he looks like a designated hitter in the making — particularly given the eventual arrival in Los Angeles of another Cuban import, infielder Hector Olivera. And while versatile utility man Enrique Hernandez has been virtually shut out of meaningful playing time, he's flashing the skills in his limited chances (35 at-bats, .754 OPS) that intrigued onlookers during his 2014 debut.
The rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies have Hamels on the trade block, along with surprising veteran Aaron Harang. But the arrival of top pitching prospect Aaron Nola is more dependent on his own performance ( 1.54 ERA, 39/6 K/BB in Class AA) than the needs of the big club. His need for time in Class AAA will likely delay his major league debut until August at the earliest.
In the meantime, the Phillies continue to try to move closer Jonathan Papelbon, for whom hard-throwing Ken Giles — 1.86 ERA in 191/3 innings but with deteriorating strikeout and walk rates — is the obvious replacement.
If the Phillies really want to rid themselves of Ben Revere's or Ryan Howard's contract, they might find a willing taker in the Los Angeles Angels, whose anemic offense has struggled vs. left-handed pitching all season and desperately needs help in left field and at designated hitter. If this happens, Matt Joyce and C.J. Cron will find themselves with fewer opportunities to work out of their season-long funks. And if the Angels deal from strength — starting pitching — expect Andrew Heaney (3.02 ERA, 49/12 K/BB in Class AAA hitter-friendly Salt Lake City) to get his next MLB shot soon, whether in Anaheim or elsewhere.
With perpetually high expectations and the AL's second-worst rotation ERA, the Boston Red Sox could begin their makeover at any time. But a trade might not be the first order of business. Class AAA prospect Eduardo Rodriguez (2.98 ERA, 44/7 K/BB through 481/3 innings) is on the 40-man roster, has a solid midrotation ceiling and should be rostered in fantasy leagues that use reserve spots. Still, expect the Red Sox to use a position player glut and deep player development system to inquire on any available upper-tier starting pitchers. Outfielders Jackie Bradley Jr. (.343 in 99 Class AAA at-bats) and Allen Craig are among the more experienced players who could potentially have trade value.
The Milwaukee Brewers' early-season misery makes them midseason sellers, with closer Francisco Rodriguez — 1.13 ERA, 8-for-8 in save opportunities and a team-friendly contract through 2016 — an obvious trade candidate. Experienced Jonathan Broxton would be the favorite to replace Rodriguez despite a terrible batting average on balls in play and inflated left-on-base percentage. But don't ignore Will Smith (foreign substances notwithstanding) or Jeremy Jeffress, both of whom have been used in equally high-leverage situations as Broxton and had sub-3.00 ERAs with elite strikeout rates.
Jock Thompson writes for BaseballHQ.com, a Paste BN Sports Digital Property. Follow their writers on Twitter: @BaseballHQ.