What's been the key to these surprise fantasy performances?
CINCINNATI – In case casual baseball fans weren’t aware, this year’s All-Star festivities helped show just how much emerging young talent there is in the game.
There were surprises, too. Here are six All-Star players who have exceeded the expectations fantasy owners had for them this spring. What has been the key to their breakout seasons? I had a chance to ask them.
OF A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks
What the numbers say: Hitting .299 with 11 home runs, 42 RBI and 19 stolen bases at the break, Pollock also ranked third in the NL in runs scored (58) and tied for fourth in hits (100).
He has picked up where he left off last season, when a broken hand limited him to 75 games.
What Pollock says: “When you’re staring down a pitcher, there’s a big instinctual side of baseball that has nothing to do with stats. There’s maybe a couple of tendencies — this guy likes to lean on this pitch here or this pitch there — but I’m trying to hit a line drive every time. If you do that, the sabermetrics are going to show that it’s pretty positive.”
Sure enough, he has improved his line-drive rate from 14.2% last season to 19.9% this season.
Pollock has done most of his damage out of the No. 2 spot in the order, hitting .319/.345/.500 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in 194 first-half plate appearances.
He says Paul Goldschmidt’s presence in the lineup helps considerably. “I’m sure there’s been a bunch of times I’ve gotten different pitches because of him (hitting) behind me.”
3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
What the numbers say: Arenado set career highs in home runs (24) and RBI (70) by the All-Star break, putting him seventh and tied for first in the majors in those power categories.
Proving he’s not just a product of inflated offensive numbers at Coors Field, Arenado hit more of his pre-break homers on the road (15) than at home (nine). Last season, 16 of his 18 home runs came at Coors.
His average fly-ball distance has increased from 289 feet in 2014 to 293 in 2015, and he ranked among the game’s top 10 hitters at the break in fly-ball rate (46%).
What Arenado says: “Before, I was trying to figure out what kind of a hitter I was, if I was just trying to hit the ball or drive the ball, but now I know who I am and I feel like good things are happening.”
So who is he?
“A line-drive hitter. My whole key up there is just trying to hit the ball hard. I’m not trying to hit home runs. The ball’s been going out this year. I don’t know why, but it’s definitely a better feeling this year.”
The one drawback in his stat line is a paltry 5% walk rate, but he makes up for it by not striking out much (14%).
“I’m an aggressive hitter, but sometimes it helps me and sometimes it doesn’t.”
With an isolated power index (.305) that put him behind only Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton, fantasy owners will gladly accept the trade-off.
SP Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
What the numbers say: Cole leads the majors with 13 wins, to go along with a stellar 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
His deadly fastball-slider combination has him as one of four starting pitchers to have both pitches ranked in the top 15 in Fangraphs’ pitch value ratings.
What Cole says: “I’ve kinda settled in a little bit in terms of my delivery, in terms of my comfort on the field. Things aren’t going as fast. It’s just allowed me to keep things simple.”
He has improved his walk and ground-ball rates from last season.
“(I’m) executing some pitches better. Locating better. Not letting things out of my control affect me as much as maybe I have in the past.”
C-1B-OF Stephen Vogt, Oakland Athletics
What the numbers say: Vogt was the American League’s most valuable fantasy catcher over the first half of the season, hitting .287 with 14 home runs and 56 RBI. Not bad for someone whose foot and ankle injuries last season kept him from playing enough games at catcher (15) to qualify there on draft day.
What Vogt says: “Had I not been able to play right field or first base, I definitely would not have made it to the big leagues and would not have been able to hit the way I did last year when I first came up.”
The big difference for him in 2015?
“Confidence. Finally, for the first time this year, Bob (Melvin) and Billy (Beane) and the A’s told me, ‘You’re going to be our catcher against right-handed pitching.’ It was the first time in my life somebody had said, ‘This is your role, you’re going to do it.’ ”
He has more than justified the A’s confidence in him on the field — with a .301/.389/.533 slash line against right-handers.
“I know a lot more now than I did a year ago. More experience. But really, the confidence is what has really helped me turn the corner.”
3B Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals
What the numbers say: At 26, Moustakas has made major strides in virtually every offensive category. He raised his batting average from .212 last season to .297 at the break. His on-base percentage went from .271 to .353.
He also is making much more consistent contact, cutting his strikeout rate to 10.8% (from 14.8% last year).
What Moustakas says: Working with hitting coach Dale Sveum has helped him change his overall approach to hitting.
“In spring training, I was (hitting) No. 2 … and I started doing things that I usually didn’t do — bunting, hitting and running, getting guys over. I ended up liking it. It made me become a complete ballplayer again.”
Part of that new approach has Moustakas hitting the ball to the opposite field to beat defensive shifts. Last season, he pulled 71% of his ground balls; this year, he’s pulling 55%.
He’s hitting more line drives, too. Last season, 13% of them went to the opposite field. This season, 42% of them have.
The result is a .313 batting average on balls in play that’s almost 60 points higher than his career norm.
SP Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
What the numbers say: Santiago’s 6-4 record at the break wasn’t overly impressive, but his 2.33 ERA ranked third in the American League and ninth in the majors.
What Santiago says: “Before, I used to be almost afraid to throw my slider. I was almost afraid to mix in a curveball first pitch because I didn’t want to give up a first-pitch curveball home run. … You build that confidence in yourself and your stuff.”
Santiago also has the highest fly-ball rate (50.2%) of any starting pitcher in the majors. Although it’s not the most common approach, he says he has found what works best for him.
“When I get ground balls, they go through the six-hole or they go through the four-hole, so why get ground balls? Strike out a few guys, get some soft contact in the air. … A fly ball is a more secure out than a ground ball.
“It doesn’t hurt to have any of those guys in the outfield, especially Mike Trout.”
Follow Steve Gardner on Twitter: @SteveAGardner