NFL's evolution alters fantasy game plans

There are a handful of fantasy draft absolutes (avoid first-round kickers and retired players). But every season serves up significant change. The championship fantasy roster from last year won’t repeat even though most owners in your league will draft on that premise. Not only is there the standard changing of the guard, but 2015 also serves up even more fundamental change among the various positions.

The NFL has evolved into a passing league, and that is showing up in fantasy drafts in a big way this season. Gone are the days of blindly drafting two running backs and then starting to build the rest of your team.

Wide receivers are taking up nearly half of the first round in many leagues, which makes for a deeper crop of running backs than ever before. Expect to use a first- or second-round pick if you want a difference-maker at wideout. And starting out with two wide receivers has never made more sense. You’ll be surprised at the running back value in the fourth and even fifth rounds.

Position expectations

•Quarterbacks: Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers will go first. Both are significantly better than the rest if only from their lack of risk. After these two, there will be a lull before any others are taken. The next eight quarterbacks will start a few rounds later depending on the value of the position in your league.

There is no set order on how they are drafted, though Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees tend to be earlier picks. As in most years, there’s no real reason to take an early quarterback unless there are six-point passing touchdowns or you start two of them. In most leagues, you are better loading up on other positions until at least Round 5 or 6.

Don’t wait on a backup quarterback. They’ll quickly follow the last of the starters drafted and begin to drain once teams have already fielded all their starting spots other than defense and kickers.

•Running backs: The darlings of every draft have taken a hit in recent years and never as pronounced as in 2015. You can still expect the top eight will go quickly. In leagues with no points for receptions, the elite backs are gone in the first round. With reception points, they still only last until the early second round. But fantasy starters exist well into the fifth rounds.

Many drafters this season seem to be loading up on premier wide receivers before they start to fill their backfields in the third or even fourth round. That means Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde and Andre Ellington are likely available. Meanwhile, the fifth round can still offer Joique Bell, Rashard Jennings, Doug Martin or LeGarrette Blount. If you ever wanted to wait on a running back and not have it hurt, this is the year.

•Wide receivers: Rather than taking riskier running backs, drafters are opting for elite wide receivers fast and heavy in drafts. The top five are always a mixture of Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant. In point-per-reception (PPR) leagues, all might go in the first round. But the run doesn’t stop there.

Expect roughly half of the second round to also be wide receivers. Everyone wants at least one if not two plug-and-play wideouts.

This is a position that can still offer upside as late as the sixth and seventh round with players such as Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson and Jeremy Maclin. Waiting until the third round to start drafting wideouts puts you at a disadvantage in that position. Prudent drafters are taking an early wideout if not two and then loading up on running backs. Getting a third wide receiver by the sixth round means a solid set of fantasy starters.

•Tight ends: This year is easy to forecast. Rob Gronkowski will cost a second-round pick and maybe a first-rounder in PPR formats. Second up is always Jimmy Graham, who fosters a little less confidence now that he is a Seattle Seahawk but still more than any other tight end. There are only two real difference-makers here; the next six are more about avoiding a liability than gaining an advantage.

You can wait until the seventh or even eighth round and still be able to draft a top-eight tight end. Unless you get reception points and want the advantage of Gronkowski, waiting on your tight end makes the most sense again this year. And expect to pay a noticeable price when you start with Gronkowski and delay all other positions by a round.

•Kickers: While Stephen Gostkowski and Adam Vinatieri are almost always the first two kickers taken, they last until there are only three rounds left in every draft. There is almost no consistency in how any others are taken, so just wait on a kicker until your final pick.

•Defenses: Expect to see the Seahawks taken early, perhaps even just after the midpoint of your draft. And then there will be a multiround lull so long that the Seattle ploy looks like an expensive miscalculation — which it is.

The Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills and St. Louis Rams are generally the next three, but you’ll be safe as long as you acquire a top-10 defense. In most leagues, drafters will start on defenses in the third-to-last round before they get their kickers. Once those three are taken, there will be an immediate run on defenses.

Reversal of fortune

The first three picks in a draft have long held a significant advantage because they allowed owners to take a top running back and still have access to elite wide receivers and quarterbacks with their second pick. Everyone was so running back greedy that they largely left all other positions alone.

That’s not the case in 2015. By the end of the second round, Luck, Rodgers, Gronkowski and the top eight to 10 wide receivers are gone. There will be no obvious difference-makers left for those with early first-round picks.

The teams that draft in the back of the first round have more of an advantage this year because they can start with two premier wide receivers and still find running backs who won’t be a liability. Select a mixture of high upside (Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, C.J. Spiller) and established backs (Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram) and you’ll already have a highly competitive core by Round 5.

Drafts this year are mixing up the positions more than ever, which provides opportunity for astute drafters. Player value stands out more than blindly drafting positions. Simply taking the best player will help you construct the best overall team.