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Under-the-radar fantasy bargains for 2016


Thirty years ago, Simple Minds crooned the song Don’t You (Forget About Me) for the hit movie The Breakfast Club. While that’s well in the past, heed their advice when turning your attention to your 2016 fantasy baseball season.

Some stud players — as well as young up-and-comers — missed all or most of this season because of injury. Keeping a half-step ahead of your competition — perhaps even snagging a few of these guys now in keeper leagues — could give you a leg up on your 2016 roster.

Pitchers

• With 20 wins and the best ERA of his career in 2014, Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals generated plenty of interest in 2015 drafts. But an Achilles tendon injury felled him after four starts, apparently ending his season.

Does the 34-year-old have anything left in the tank?

Exercise caution — Wainwright dealt with a balky elbow throughout 2014, and it likely contributed to fading velocity and a dip in strikeouts in the second half. Wainwright posted solid stats for years, but these injuries make him a risky pick in 2016.

•Yu Darvish had Tommy John elbow surgery in March, so he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the 2016 season. But when healthy, he still possesses a skills tool shed.

Combine good velocity with a potent pitch mix, and Darvish generates plenty of swings and misses, leading to a lofty strikeout rate (K/9) to go along with an ERA that’s hovered around 3.00 for two years. While he’s obviously a risky play for 2016, Darvish is a great stash candidate.

•When the Oakland Athletics won the American League West in 2012 and 2013, Jarrod Parker was a big contributor to their success, winning 25 games. But Parker had his second Tommy John surgery in March 2014, then fractured his elbow in rehab this year. Is he worth a flyer in 2016?

Though Parker generates a lot of swings and misses, he never has translated that to a high K/9. He also gave up a healthy number of fly balls in 2013.

Still, always look to bank starters who toe the rubber at O.Co Coliseum, where fly balls don’t sting as much. But with all those elbow issues, monitor Parker in deep leagues only.

•Yes, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw lead the hunt for the National League Cy Young Award, but don’t forget about a key component missing from the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation. Hyun-Jin Ryu tried to pitch through the shoulder pain he encountered in spring training but eventually elected surgery.

In 2014, Ryu improved on his rookie year numbers, cutting down on the free passes, striking out more batters and keeping the ball on the ground. At 28, he’s got plenty of experience (spending seven full years in the Korean Baseball Organization), and should be a prominent factor in 2016 drafts.

•The Tampa Bay Rays have a habit of producing stud starters. Despite battling injuries in 2013-14, Alex Cobb lived up to that credo, totaling 31 wins to go along with an ERA below 3.00.

Cobb tried pitching through shoulder discomfort in spring training, but then succumbed to the Tommy John knife in May. That timeline puts him back on the mound in late 2016, at best, so those in re-draft leagues should look elsewhere. But in keeper leagues, Cobb should be on your radar — his proven pitch command and a strong ground-ball bent are a very good combination.

•With several young starters vying for the title of staff ace, the New York Mets are well-positioned for a long playoff run. But don’t forget Zack Wheeler, he of the dominant fastball, who followed up a solid 2013 debut with a strong 2014. Going 8-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in the second half had people salivating at 2015 drafts. But Tommy John surgery in March put an end to his season.

Wheeler needs to reduce his walks to achieve true ace status, and he’s not likely to be ready for the start of the season. But it would be unwise to ignore him in 2016 drafts.

•The Los Angeles Angels’ Tyler Skaggs registered a mundane ERA in 2014, making it easy to dismiss him as a future contributor. But don’t forget that the 24-year old ranked as a top prospect a few years ago, routinely unleashing 94-mph fastballs and snapping off killer curveballs.

Skaggs made major improvements to his walk rate in 2014, regained the velocity with the Arizona Diamondbacks and did a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. Skaggs underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2014, so there’s a good chance he’ll be ready to go in spring training.

Hitters

•The Toronto Blue Jays have bludgeoned their way to prominence in the AL East, but few remember that outfielder Michael Saunders factored into their preseason plans after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners.

He never got to flash his combination of power and speed in Toronto, as he underwent meniscus surgery on his left knee in February. He made it back for a few games in late April, but inflammation has shelved him since. While Saunders isn’t going to be confused with the Jays’ big boppers, if healthy he can be counted on for at least mid-teens home runs and stolen bases in 2016.

•Early in his career, Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco made pretty good contact, striking out at a league-average rate. But between a low batting average and little power, his bat didn’t generate much excitement. That changed in 2014, when he opened up his swing and started mashing the ball.

More line drives and fly balls resulted in better batting average and plenty of home runs. But Mesoraco suffered a hip injury in April 2014, and after trying to rehab it, succumbed to surgery in June. Mesoraco expects to be ready for spring training, and if his hip can deal with the strain of catching, he’ll be one of the top receivers in 2016.

•After spending years as a top prospect in the Rangers’ system, it seems like Jurickson Profar must be in his mid-to-late 20s, right? No, he’s 22. He garnered attention with a fine season at Class AA at age 19, showing both power and speed.

A bum shoulder cost him all of 2014 and most of 2015; he played a few rehab games this summer but was shut down when it became obvious he wouldn’t get back to the majors this year. Profar will play this offseason in the instructional league and Arizona Fall League. As a middle infielder who can generate both home runs and stolen bases, he could be a factor in 2016.