Star running backs re-emerging down the stretch
Running backs have disappointed this season and four of last season’s top 10 are on injured reserve. But three of those studs from the second half of 2014 who flopped earlier this season are starting to show up just when fantasy owners need them the most.
C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos. Anderson showed glimpses of his 2014 form in Week 8, when he ran for 101 yards and one score in a win against the Green Bay Packers. While he turned in lesser efforts in losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs, he was back in Week 11 with 72 total yards vs. the Chicago Bears.
Sunday night, Anderson had his best game of 2015 with 113 yards and two scores on 15 runs, plus 40 yards on four catches in a win against the New England Patriots. He ran very well in the bad weather, which could come into play during the remaining matchups at home against the Oakland Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals, as well as in Week 15 at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Jeremy Hill, Bengals. In Week 11 at the Arizona Cardinals, Hill scored two touchdowns and finished with 45 yards on 13 carries. At home vs. the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, he rushed for a season-high 86 yards on 16 carries and caught a 14-yard pass. As long as there’s nothing to the ankle injury that forced him out of that win, he could be a must-start in the fantasy playoffs. He faces the Cleveland Browns, Steelers and San Francisco 49ers next.
Eddie Lacy, Packers. After a mostly disappointing start, Lacy recently roared back to life and rushed for more than 100 yards the past two weeks vs. the Minnesota Vikings and the Bears while adding a receiving TD on Thanksgiving night. Lacy finishes the year vs. the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Raiders and Cardinals.
Players on the rise
Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas missed the first four games of the year because of a finger injury and was slowed by a groin injury for several more weeks. But Thomas has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. He had his best game of the season in Week 12 when he caught nine passes for 116 yards and one score vs. the San Diego Chargers. With Allen Hurns often injured, Thomas could continue to play a major role in the remaining weeks.
San Francisco’s Vance McDonald already had seen a rise in work since Vernon Davis was traded to Denver. With Garrett Celek knocked out of Sunday’s game against the Cardinals, McDonald (six receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown) was second on the team to wideout Anquan Boldin in targets and catches. Celek is expected to miss at least a few weeks or more with a high ankle sprain. That leaves McDonald as the primary tight end.
Scott Chandler scored his third touchdown of the season in the Patriots’ loss in Denver, when he was targeted 11 times and caught five passes for 58 yards. With rampant injuries to Patriots pass catchers, including Rob Gronkowski, Chandler’s fantasy outlook has never been brighter.
The Vikings’ Kyle Rudolph scored three times but was held to minimal catches and yards for the first 10 weeks of the season. In Week 11, he broke out with six receptions for 106 yards and one score. He followed that with seven catches for 53 yards Sunday at the Atlanta Falcons. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has targeted Rudolph 19 times over the last two games, and the Vikings are certain to look for their tight end in coming weeks as they face difficult matchups against the Seattle Seahawks and Cardinals.
Seattle wide receiver Doug Baldwin produced moderate results this season until Week 10, when he caught seven passes for 134 yards and one score in a loss to the Cardinals. After turning in 60 yards on six catches in Week 11, he had a career day Sunday with six receptions for 145 yards and three scores.
Baldwin’s stats increase when the Seahawks face tough opponents, and the loss of tight end Jimmy Graham will force quarterback Russell Wilson to seek out Baldwin first. The defense is no longer keeping game scores low, so the Seahawks likely will end up in more shootouts such as Sunday’s 39-30 win vs. the Steelers.
DeVante Parker was the Miami Dolphins’ first-round pick (14th overall) in this year’s draft and was expected to provide quarterback Ryan Tannehill with another talented receiving option. But Parker’s rookie season has been mostly about sitting on the bench.
Against the Jets on Sunday, he replaced injured Rishard Matthews and caught four passes for 80 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Granted, it was in trash time of an already-decided game, but it was good to see him in action. Depending on Matthews’ health or just a coaching whim, Parker could see more time against the weaker secondaries of the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Chargers and Colts.
The loss of quarterback Tony Romo for the rest of the season depresses the value of Cowboys receivers, but Cole Beasley could be the exception.
His career-best game came in Week 9 when Matt Cassel threw 11 passes to him that became nine catches for 112 yards with two touchdowns.
After Romo broke his collarbone again in Week 12, Cassel’s only touchdown pass went to Beasley. For what it’s worth, Dez Bryant has produced one notable game with Cassel as the starter.
Cardinals running back David Johnson will be a popular waiver pickup this week. The Cardinals lost Chris Johnson to a knee injury and Andre Ellington to a foot sprain. After scoring a touchdown in relief Sunday, the rookie could come into play more this week should either back be unable to play.
The Cardinals face the Rams for the second time this season. In the teams’ first meeting, Johnson produced a season-high 63 receiving yards on four catches, including a touchdown, and gained 18 yards on three carries.
Every point counts
Week 12 produced only four kickers who scored more than 10 points. Overall, scoring tends to decrease as the season progresses into the colder months. That’s also true for kickers.
But what is really coming into play is the change in distance for extra points and how that is impacted by weather.
Consider that there were 35 missed extra point attempts over the first 11 weeks. Throw a bit of bad weather into the mix in Week 12 and we had a season-high eight failed attempts — exactly as many as there were in all of 2014. And worse weather is surely on the way.