Fantasy studs and duds: Beware brutal matchups in the playoffs
It’s fantasy playoff time for most leagues, so a bad matchup or a wrong lineup choice could end your season. Fortunately, we have these helpful hints.
STUDS
QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been fortunate to face some easy matchups in recent weeks (Matt Ryan as a visitor counts). A weakened Brees mustered 255 yards and a score against them in Week 2. Though he’s on the road this time, he comes in healthy and in better shape with his familiar offense.
WR Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks: Baldwin has blossomed thanks to the arm of quarterback Russell Wilson, whose evasiveness will pester the Baltimore Ravens front and allow him to slice through this woeful secondary. Baltimore gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to receivers.
RB Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins: The first week with new offensive coordinator Zac Taylor produced 113 yards (5.6 average) for Miller. Think they got the hint about running the ball? That trend will continue against a New York Giants club giving up the sixth-highest fantasy points per game (PPR) to running backs.
WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts: If QB Matt Hasselbeck (neck, rib) plays, Hilton’s on-again, off-again production would swing back into positive territory. He snared seven of 13 targets for 67 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 4, the first time this year Hasselbeck started in place of Andrew Luck. That’s close to his floor this time around.
TE Scott Chandler, New England Patriots: A depleted wideout corps has pushed QB Tom Brady to trust Chandler, who has found the end zone in three of his past four games. In the last two games when Rob Gronkowski either left early or was ruled inactive, Chandler averaged nine targets, 4.5 catches and 59.5 yards. The Houston Texans have defended tight ends admirably this year but caved against Travis Kelce, Julius Thomas and Charles Clay — above-average to excellent assets.
DUDS
QB Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders: Carr has thrown for at least 283 yards and two touchdowns in six of his last seven games. This sophomore has been the real deal. But he’ll slow down against the Broncos, the toughest opponent for quarterbacks this year. Carr mustered 249 yards vs. these horses in Week 5 but only threw one touchdown and turned it over twice.
RB Chris Ivory, New York Jets: He’ll still carry flex value for playoff teams, but there isn’t much upside, especially with the way Bilal Powell has excelled via the pass in recent weeks. The Jets passing offense has soared, and Ivory has been left behind a bit. Though they’ve been more resistant lately, the Titans have given up the least PPR points to running backs over the course of the season.
WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons: Jones had another big PPR day in Week 13 but questioned his team’s play calling in the red zone. He hasn’t scored over his last four outings. Now, he’ll line up against imminent Pro Bowler Josh Norman … on the road, where Matt Ryan and the Falcons often stumble. Benching the elite wideout in the postseason is a stretch, but tempering expectations will help you set your best lineup possible.
RB DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles: Coach Chip Kelly reminded the media that the Eagles backfield rotates its priorities and production weekly. Murray only played 14 snaps in Week 13, and Philadelphia might welcome back Ryan Mathews in Week 14. Darren Sproles also seems like a much better play against the Buffalo Bills, who’ve bent but not broken against this position.
RB LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots: Blount has averaged just 3.6 yards per carry in the last four games, and he hasn’t scored in the last three weeks as James White and Brandon Bolden have shown more. The Houston Texans have been a bottom-10 matchup in the last five weeks for running backs, and the lumbering Blount doesn’t profile as the type to conquer them.
SLEEPERS
RB Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns: Johnson yields to Isaiah Crowell on between-the-tackles work, but he commands the receiving job out of the backfield. The rookie has seven games with four-plus catches, including each of his last three. The San Francisco 49ers defense has coughed up the third-most fantasy points per game (point-per-reception settings) to running backs this year. That includes the fourth-most receptions (76) to them.
QB Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quarterback against the Saints? Start him. They’re the biggest doormat against the position this year. Winston has only thrown for one score in each of the two games since his five-touchdown Week 11, but he’s always a threat with his legs, and he ran for a score last week.
WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: He enjoyed a 7-for-7 target performance in Week 13 and a two-touchdown outing in Week 11. Jimmy Graham’s season-ending injury opens up looks from Russell Wilson, who’s beginning to trust the explosive rookie. Lockett might have assumed the Percy Harvin role — without the drama. In the first round of your fantasy playoffs or daily fantasy contests, few cheap wideouts match his boom-or-bust profile against the Ravens, a weekly top-five matchup for wideouts.
RB Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions: With improved ball security, the rookie has climbed back into a sizable role in this typically frustrating backfield. Abdullah put up a stellar 5.2 yards-per-carry average (13 for 67) in Week 13, and has a chance to seize the opportunity once again. The St. Louis Rams, who have a stout reputation on defense, have actually given up the fifth-highest fantasy scoring average to running backs in the last three weeks.
TE Jordan Cameron, Miami Dolphins: Want to go against the grain at a weakened position? Go with the preseason breakout candidate who’s floundered with the Dolphins, failing to catch more than four passes in a game this year and more than two in each of his last seven. Still, Cameron can find seams in the red zone, and the Giants have allowed the second most receptions and fantasy points per game to tight ends.