Finding relief in some of LABR's lessons

Spending a good chunk of time analyzing one particular fantasy baseball draft, especially one in mid-February, is generally a fruitless pursuit.

A lot can happen between now and opening day that could turn good picks into silly ones — or vice versa. But just as the exhibition games that begin in less than a week are merely an appetizer for the real thing, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) mixed draft fills a similar void.

We have some real results for the 2016 season. Let’s see what they tell us.

The first round

Unfortunately, I drew the short straw and ended up at No. 5 — probably the toughest draft slot there is this season. Though you’ll definitely get someone great, you’re not likely to score a great value. By my count, it’s possible to justify as many as nine different players in that spot and not have to stretch the truth one bit.

My choice: Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs.

In most drafts, he won’t go this early. His average draft position (ADP) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championships, which are also 15-team leagues, is 11. Most people seem to prefer one of four elite third basemen — Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson or Kris Bryant, all of whom have lower ADPs. (All four were taken in the first round of this draft.)

But here’s my rationale for Rizzo. You can look at what he’s averaged the past two seasons (.282, 31.5 homers, 89.5 RBI, 91.5 runs, 11 steals) and feel confident his statistical floor is pretty solid.

Now take a Cubs offense that’s markedly better at the top of the order with the addition of on-base machines Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist. Hitting third (with Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber behind him), Rizzo, 26, is in the perfect spot to take his performance to an even higher level.

Not many picks this early in a draft still have upside potential. Rizzo definitely does.

First base is also an extremely difficult position to fill because the elite ones (Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion) fly off the board quickly. After they’re gone, the talent level drops quickly and there was no guarantee any of them would be there on the way back to me in Round 2.

Better get that ace

With my second-round pick, I had a choice of Todd Frazier — the top third baseman on my board — and several ace starting pitchers. I was all set to draft Madison Bumgarner or Jake Arrieta when both were taken immediately before me.

In a vacuum, Frazier with the 26th pick is an overdraft. But there were still four top-flight starters available (David Price, Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber) and four teams — with two picks each — ahead of me.

None of the first four teams had a third baseman yet, so I decided to take Frazier and wait until Round 3 to get my ace.

While the No. 5 spot was a disadvantage in the first round, I was fortunate to be right in the middle of a massive run of starting pitchers in the third. Starting with Sale as the last selection in Round 2, a total of 10 starters were snapped up in the span of 13 picks. With Greinke and Kluber still available, I went with the one in the National League: Greinke.

Of the eight starting pitchers I drafted (including the reserve rounds), six of them are in the NL. As daily fantasy players know so well, the key to success in pitching is in the matchups.

A season-long fantasy owner can have inferior starters but still put up better numbers this season by maximizing starts against the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies (away from Coors Field), Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres.

By the end of Round 3, all but two of the 15 teams had at least one starting pitcher. Of the 65 players chosen in the first five rounds, 23 of them (or 35%) were starting pitchers.

My team

(with round and overall pick number)

1. (5) 1B Anthony Rizzo

2. (26) 3B Todd Frazier

3. (35) SP Zack Greinke

4. (56) OF Jason Heyward

5. (65) 2B/3B Anthony Rendon

6. (86) SP Jordan Zimmermann

7. (95) OF Kole Calhoun

8. (116) SS Jose Reyes

9. (125) C Travis d’Arnaud

10. (146) SP Raisel Iglesias

11. (155) SP Jake Odorizzi

12. (176) OF Delino DeShields

13. (185) RP Dellin Betances

14. (206) SS Jhonny Peralta

15. (215) SP Kyle Hendricks

16. (236) DH Victor Martinez

17. (245) SP Aaron Nola

18. (266) 3B/OF Danny Valencia

19. (275) SP Hyun-Jin Ryu

20. (296) 1B/OF Chris Colabello

21. (305) RP Kelvin Herrera

22. (326) OF Nick Markakis

23. (335) C A.J. Pierzynski

Bench: OF Rymer Liriano, OF Michael Taylor, RP Luke Gregerson, SP Tanner Roark, OF Andre Ethier, SP Jorge De La Rosa

The closer conundrum

The most glaring weakness on my team is at closer: I don’t have one.

That doesn’t have to be a problem, however. In fact, last year’s LABR Mixed champions — Mike Gianella and Bret Sayre of Baseball Prospectus — didn’t draft a closer last year, yet still finished with 83 saves.

I didn’t go into the draft planning to punt saves. But a good drafter should never be without a backup plan. And in this case, the backup plan was to target high-strikeout relievers — fantasy assets, even if they’re not getting saves.

Dellin Betances in Round 13 and Kelvin Herrera in Round 21 fit the bill. Betances led all relievers last season with 131 strikeouts, averaging more than 14 per nine innings. Herrera wasn’t as dominant (8.3 K/9) but he’ll likely see more work as he moves into the main setup role this season.

There also are a couple of reasons why I don’t mind being without a closer at this point. Our draft is so early, exhibition games haven’t even begun. Several teams are looking at open closer competitions this spring. (Even the Houston Astros, who traded for Ken Giles this offseason, haven’t officially named a closer. So my 26th-round Gregerson pick could still pay off.)

Some teams might not even want to put their best relievers in the closer’s role. If a club, especially one that’s rebuilding, wants to ensure a competitive and affordable roster down the road, why put a future closer in position to rack up saves now — only to drive up his price in arbitration or lose him to free agency?

Arodys Vizcaino, Jake McGee, Will Smith, Carter Capps and Kevin Quackenbush could be held back in favor of more expendable veterans.

Besides, there will always be closer changes during the regular season — and future closers available on the waiver wire. Last year, Jeurys Familia (43 saves), Tolleson (35), A.J. Ramos (32), Jason Grilli (24) and Roberto Osuna (20) went undrafted.

And finally, saves are the easiest commodity to find on the trade market because they don’t have a significant impact on any of the other four pitching categories. A roster surplus in almost any area can usually be swapped for saves.

In a league this size, it’s awfully difficult to draft a team without at least one weak spot. Mine just happens to be in saves. Over a month away from opening day, that’s hardly something that can’t be overcome.

For inspiration, all I need to do is look at last year’s champs.