Projected NL lineups and offensive outlooks for 2016
We should learn a great deal more about what teams plan to do on offense once spring training games begin this week. But here’s our best guess at how each National League team will line up from 1 to 8 (with projected NL rank in runs scored in parentheses):
Arizona Diamondbacks
CF A.J. Pollock
SS Jean Segura
1B Paul Goldschmidt
RF David Peralta
C Welington Castillo
3B Jake Lamb
LF Yasmany Tomas
2B Chris Owings
Pollock (.315, 20 HRs, 39 stolen bases, 111 runs) is coming off a breakout season that elevated him to a borderline first-round status in 2016 drafts. If newcomer Segura can get on base at a decent clip, Pollock could slide into the No. 2 or No. 4 spot.
MVP candidate Goldschmidt is the gold standard among first basemen. Peralta hit .312 with 17 homers in 462 at-bats as part outfield rotation. There’s competition at both middle-infield slots with defense-first shortstop Nick Ahmed in the mix.
Projected NL rank: 5th
Atlanta Braves
CF Ender Inciarte
SS Erick Aybar
RF Nick Markakis
1B Freddie Freeman
3B Adonis Garcia
C A.J. Pierzynski
LF Hector Olivera
2B Jace Peterson
After finishing last in runs in 2015, the Braves made a concerted effort to put the ball in play more often. The two newcomers at the top of the order were both among the majors’ top 16 in contact rate in 2015. Markakis ranked third.
Freeman is working his way back from a wrist injury. Olivera was a big-money signee last offseason with the Dodgers before being traded. The jury is out on whether the 30-year-old Cuban can be a productive hitter in the majors. Veterans Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher could have larger roles if Olivera is miscast.
Projected NL rank: 13th
Chicago Cubs
CF Dexter Fowler
2B Ben Zobrist
1B Anthony Rizzo
3B Kris Bryant
RF Jason Heyward
LF Kyle Schwarber
C Miguel Montero
SS Addison Russell
Fowler’s return after he had apparently agreed to a deal with the Orioles is the cherry on top of a decadent offseason. He and Zobrist (career OBPs of .363 and .355) will set the table for the power bats of Rizzo and Bryant.
Heyward, the team’s most significant new addition, should see more RBI opportunities in the No. 5 spot and should continue to steal bases. Fowler’s arrival likely means fewer starts in left for Schwarber now that Jorge Soler won’t play everyday. While it’s a good problem for the Cubs to have, it’s a concern for fantasy owners expecting breakout seasons from either one.
Projected NL rank: 1st
Cincinnati Reds
CF Billy Hamilton
SS Zack Cozart
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
RF Jay Bruce
C Devin Mesoraco
3B Eugenio Suarez
LF Adam Duvall
Despite his anemic .274 on-base percentage, Hamilton will get another chance to prove he can be an effective leadoff man. He’s not fully recovered from shoulder surgery.
Votto led the league in walks for the fourth time in five seasons, plus hit 29 homers. Phillips and Bruce will need to make opposing pitchers pay if they pitch around Votto. After one proposed trade already fell through, Bruce could still be on the move — either this spring or closer to the trade deadline. Fleet-footed second-base prospect Jose Peraza is also waiting in the wings if Phillips is dealt.
The left-field job is up for grabs in camp with Duvall, Scott Schebler and Yorman Rodriguez all possibilities – and top prospect Jesse Winker potentially ready by midseason.
Projected NL rank: 14th
Colorado Rockies
CF Charlie Blackmon
2B DJ LeMahieu
RF Carlos Gonzalez
3B Nolan Arenado
LF Gerardo Parra
1B Ben Paulsen
C Nick Hundley
SS Rafael Ynoa
Blackmon followed his breakout 2014 season with a nearly identical one: .287/.347/.450(batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage). The big difference was a jump in stolen bases from 28 to 43. He’s a top power/speed target.
Arenado led the majors with 130 RBI and combined with Gonzalez to give the Rockies a pair of 40-homer guys. The trade of former starter Corey Dickerson opens regular playing time for Parra.
The big question mark is the status of shortstop Jose Reyes, who won’t play until his domestic abuse case is resolved — and then could face an additional suspension.
Projected NL rank: 2nd
Los Angeles Dodgers
2B Howie Kendrick
SS Corey Seager
3B Justin Turner
1B Adrian Gonzalez
RF Yasiel Puig
LF Andre Ethier
C Yasmani Grandal
CF Joc Pederson
Expectations are high for rookie of the year candidate Seager, who hit .337 in 98 September at-bats and took over the starting job. He has excellent power for a shortstop.
Pederson went through growing pains last season after breaking camp with the big club, hitting 20 homers in the first half and making the All-Star team — only to struggle mightily in the second half.
Puig is the great unknown. Can manager Dave Roberts tap into his wealth of raw talent? Carl Crawford, Scott Van Slyke, Chase Utley and Enrique Hernandez give the Dodgers perhaps the best depth of any big-league team.
Projected NL rank: 7th
Miami Marlins
2B Dee Gordon
LF Christian Yelich
RF Giancarlo Stanton
1B Justin Bour
3B Martin Prado
CF Marcell Ozuna
C J.T. Realmuto
SS Adeiny Hechavarria
Gordon led the majors in steals for a second consecutive year and won the NL batting title with a .333 average. Stanton is the early favorite to lead the majors in home runs — especially now that the team has moved in and lowered the height of the outfield fences at Marlins Park.
Bour (23 HRs, 73 RBI in 409 at-bats) was a pleasant surprise last season who’ll get an opportunity to play every day in 2016.
Realmuto is a popular sleeper pick because he offers a rare combination of power and speed in a catcher.
Projected NL rank: 11th
Milwaukee Brewers
2B Scooter Gennett
C Jonathan Lucroy
LF Ryan Braun
1B Chris Carter
3B Aaron Hill
RF Domingo Santana
SS Jonathan Villar
CF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Braun’s health is the key to the offense. He’s recovering from offseason back surgery but expects to be 100% by opening day.
Lucroy will look to bounce back to the hitter he was in 2014, when he led the league with 53 doubles. Carter was acquired for his power. He slugged 37 homers two seasons ago for the Astros, but he has never hit above .227 in a full season. Santana, 23, hit .333/.426/.573 in 95 games at Class AAA before finishing the season in Milwaukee.
More young talent will soon be on the way from a stocked farm system. One in particular to watch is shortstop Orlando Arcia, 21, who was one of the top players in the Class AA Southern League last year.
Projected NL rank: 9th
New York Mets
RF Curtis Granderson
CF Yoenis Cespedes
3B David Wright
1B Lucas Duda
2B Neil Walker
LF Michael Conforto
C Travis d’Arnaud
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
The offense will depend on Cespedes to make things happen, as he did after arriving at last season’s trade deadline (.287, 14 HRs, 54 RBI in 230 at-bats). Wright’s spinal condition won’t allow him to play every day, so keep expectations in check.
Walker arrives in a trade with Pittsburgh. He hits much better from the left side, which could open up at-bats for Ruben Tejada or Wilmer Flores. Defensive whiz Juan Lagares will play a lot of center field and could start against left-handers with Cespedes moving to left and Conforto to the bench.
Projected NL rank: 10th
Philadelphia Phillies
CF Odubel Herrera
2B Cesar Hernandez
3B Maikel Franco
1B Ryan Howard
LF Aaron Altherr
C Cameron Rupp
SS Freddy Galvis
RF Peter Bourjos
Franco hit 14 homers and slugged .497 as a rookie before a broken wrist ended his season in August. He looks like he’ll be the cornerstone of the Phillies’ rebuilding plans. Altherr, 25, showed promise as well in his first taste of major league playing time, slugging .489 in 137 at-bats.
Howard can’t hit lefties anymore (.130 average, .418 OPS in 2015), so he’ll sit in favor of Darin Ruf (.371, 1.107 OPS in 97 at-bats vs. lefties) against southpaws. Bourjos was added off waivers primarily for his defense.
He could share time with Cody Asche or Rule 5 pickup Tyler Goeddel.
Projected NL rank: 15th
Pittsburgh Pirates
RF Gregory Polanco
3B Josh Harrison
CF Andrew McCutchen
LF Starling Marte
1B John Jaso
C Francisco Cervelli
SS Jordy Mercer
2B Sean Rodriguez
Polanco, 24, could be a top breakout candidate now that he’s over the nagging knee injury that hampered him last season. His nine homers and 27 steals could be the floor for his 2016 numbers.
The top of the order could be as dangerous as any in the majors, but there are questions after Marte — especially while Jung Ho Kang recovers from a broken leg he suffered in September. If he’s not ready for opening day, the second-base job is up for grabs with veteran Rodriguez and prospect Alen Hanson the leading candidates.
Jaso is an on-base machine, but he has never played first base in the majors after spending all of last season as a designated hitter. Michael Morse could start against lefties.
Top hitting prospect Josh Bell may be better than both of them offensively, but he’s still learning the position after transitioning from the outfield.
Projected NL rank: 6th
San Diego Padres
2B Cory Spangenberg
1B Wil Myers
3B Yangervis Solarte
RF Matt Kemp
C Derek Norris
SS Alexei Ramirez
LF Jon Jay
CF Travis Jankowski
Myers was off to a terrific start (.291/.340/.493 through May 10) before a wrist injury derailed him. With eligibility at first base and outfield, fantasy owners would love to see what he could do in a full season.
Solarte isn’t a high fantasy pick, but he could be in a nice spot hitting between Myers and Kemp. For the second year in a row, Kemp struggled in the first half, then caught fire after the All-Star break (.286, 15 HRs, 53 RBI).
Newcomers Ramirez and Jay, along with holdover Melvin Upton Jr., provide experience if some of the youngsters aren’t quite ready. Keep an eye out for outfielder Manuel Margot, 21, and shortstop Javier Guerra, 20.
Projected NL rank: 12th
San Francisco Giants
CF Denard Span
3B Matt Duffy
C Buster Posey
1B Brandon Belt
RF Hunter Pence
SS Brandon Crawford
2B Joe Panik
LF Angel Pagan
Span was plagued last season by a hip injury. With that no longer an issue, he should be an excellent table-setter for a potent lineup. Pence and Panik also had their 2015 seasons shortened by injuries, but health doesn’t seem to be an issue as camp opens.
The Giants’ outfield depth with Gregor Blanco and Jarrett Parker will likely keep Belt at first base full-time and out of the lineup against some left-handers when Posey moves to first.
Duffy took over the starting job at third and hit .295 with double-digit homers and steals. Crawford led NL shortstops in home runs (21) and RBI (84).
Projected NL rank: 4th
St. Louis Cardinals
2B Kolten Wong
RF Stephen Piscotty
3B Matt Carpenter
LF Matt Holliday
SS Jhonny Peralta
1B Brandon Moss
CF Randal Grichuk
C Yadier Molina
There are so many open questions. Carpenter has done an excellent job as leadoff hitter, but with his power breakout in 2015 — team-bests in home runs (28) and RBI (84) — he might be moved into a better run-producing spot in the order.
Youngsters Grichuk and Piscotty surpassed expectations and will be counted on to contribute in full-time roles. Grichuk offers more power, while Piscotty gets on base at a higher clip.
Wong could hit anywhere from first to eighth in the lineup. First base is up for grabs with Moss, Matt Adams and possibly Piscotty in the mix. Late-season spark plug Tommy Pham will also see starts in center field.
Projected NL rank: 8th
Washington Nationals
CF Ben Revere
3B Anthony Rendon
RF Bryce Harper
1B Ryan Zimmerman
2B Daniel Murphy
LF Jayson Werth
C Wilson Ramos
SS Danny Espinosa
The Nats made a conscious effort this offseason to cut down on strikeouts, adding the high-contact bats of Revere and Murphy. An injury-free season from Rendon might be what turns a good offense, centered around league MVP Harper, into a great one.
Zimmerman and Werth each appeared in fewer than 100 games last season because of injuries. If they can’t stay healthy, there’s not much depth behind them.
Although new manager Dusty Baker has tended to favor experience over youth, both outfielder Michael Taylor (.229, 14 HR, 16 SB) and shortstop Trea Turner (.322/.370/.458 in the minors) could end up playing their way into the starting lineup.
Projected NL rank: 3rd