Players to target, avoid in 2016 fantasy drafts

One of the questions I’m asked most often around fantasy draft day is which players I consider must-haves for the upcoming season.

Of course, there’s no way to answer the question properly.

The easiest way to mess up a draft is to go into it with the idea certain players have to be on your team. That kind of single-minded thinking closes off any number of pathways to building a strong team.

It doesn’t hurt to target players who are likely to outperform their draft spot, but being flexible and adapting to the dynamics of the draft room is much more important.

So now that we have the basic disclaimer out of the way, there’s no way I can go through a week of watching spring training games in Arizona and another week of games in Florida — as well as participating in three industry drafts — without developing a few favorites along the way.

While the basic idea that just about every player has a price that makes him worth drafting still applies, here are the players I’m making an extra effort to acquire this season — as well as players I’m actively avoiding.

• Target: OF Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins.

While some fantasy owners might see an injury-prone slugger who has averaged a mere 114.5 games over the past four seasons, I see a 26-year-old in the prime of his career with the most raw power in the game.

What Aroldis Chapman is to throwing the ball hard, Stanton is to hitting it hard.

According to MLB Statcast data, Stanton’s average exit velocity off the bat last season was 99.1 mph, a full 4 mph greater than second-place Miguel Cabrera.

He played less than a half-season’s worth of games in 2015 because of a broken bone in his hand, which happened when he was hit by a pitch. Yet he still slugged 27 home runs and drove in 67.

A knee injury this spring might perpetuate the notion Stanton can’t stay healthy. It might even even help lower his price in drafts. But a closer look at those injuries doesn’t provide definitive proof of anything chronic. Several of them were simply unlucky breaks.

Stanton’s overdue to play a full season. And when he does, the results are going to be spectacular.

• Avoid: OF Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers.

For someone who has as much athletic talent as anyone in the game, Puig has been a major disappointment on and off the field. He never has been able to return to the level of success he enjoyed in his first season after leaving Cuba.

Now 25, Puig has a new manager and more adjustments to make, something he hasn’t done well with during the past two seasons. The Dodgers have several other options in the outfield if Puig is unable to handle full-time at-bats.

There’s a point at which Puig’s considerable upside is worth the risk of another disappointing season. I just haven’t found it yet.

• Target: 3B Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies.

The rebuilding Phillies could be one of the worst teams in the majors this season. But that shouldn’t prevent fantasy owners from getting excited about one of the game’s top young power hitters.

At 23, Franco has been allowed to progress through the minors at a fairly restrained pace, gaining confidence and racking up impressive numbers.

Franco’s 2015 season was cut short by a broken wrist. But up to that point, he hardly looked overmatched the way a typical rookie might be — hitting .280 with 14 home runs and 50 RBI in basically a half-season (304 at-bats).

Now fully recovered, Franco is having a fantastic spring, ranking among the Grapefruit League leaders in home runs.

• Avoid: 3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles.

This should in no way take away from the fact Machado is an exciting player who can do just about everything well.

The problem I have with him is that his performance in 2015 was such a tremendous leap from what he’d accomplished in three previous major league seasons that it seems a step backward is inevitable.

He never before had hit as many as 14 home runs before slugging 35 last season.

And the 20 bases he stole obliterated his previous career high of six.

Machado deserves to be considered as a potential first-round pick, but things aligned perfectly for him in 2015. And the Orioles’ inability to find a leadoff hitter this offseason could return Machado to the role again this year.

He might be the most-qualified player to hit first on the Orioles roster, but the team won’t get the full benefits of his broad skill set.

Of his 35 home runs last season, 26 came with the bases empty. Unless the Orioles can improve their team on-base percentage — unlikely after the offseason additions of sluggers Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez — Machado again will be coming to the plate frequently with the bases empty.

He returned first-round value for his fantasy owners last season, but the odds are stacked against him doing so again.

• Target: SP Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians.

Teammate Corey Kluber deservedly gets most of the attention among the Indians pitchers after he won the American League Cy Young Award in 2014.

But Carrasco has shown he can be just as dominant.

Among starting pitchers last season, Carrasco’s rate of 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings was the fifth highest in the majors — behind only Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Chris Archer.

His 3.63 ERA wasn’t overly impressive, but when compared to his Fielding Independent Pitching (which takes into account only the things pitchers can control such as walks, strikeouts and home runs), Carrasco was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game.

His FIP was 2.84 — 0.79 lower than his actual ERA — the second-largest gap of all qualified starting pitchers.

Carrasco isn’t usually considered one of the game’s elite pitchers, but his underlying stats say this may be the last chance you’ll have to draft him below that price point.

• Avoid: New York Mets starters.

I’m sure I’m in the minority here.

And chances are pretty good that at least one and maybe two out of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard will return full value for their fantasy owners this season.

But the risk that comes from depending on young pitchers who throw so hard — and who threw so many innings last season — is not one I’m willing to take.

Before the Mets made their late-season playoff push, the front office was extremely vocal about wanting to limit the workloads for their budding aces.

At one point in the middle of the season, the team even experimented with a six-man rotation for that reason.

But once they made the playoffs, the Mets knew they had to rely on their starters to advance.

After missing all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery, Harvey threw a total of 216 innings, including the postseason.

DeGrom pitched a career-high 216 innings. And Syndergaard totaled 1982/3 innings in the minors, majors and playoffs.

There’s likely a price to be paid for all those innings, many of them high-stress innings, from last season.

For that reason, I’m just not paying the elevated rate for any of those three based on their success last season.