Lineup position helps add to players' fantasy values
Every April, we sing a familiar tune at BaseballHQ.com: “Exercise excruciating patience.” The motto reminds us not to overreact to early-season numbers, as the sample sizes just aren’t large enough to drive any meaningful roster decisions.
One of the few legitimate developments we can take from April, however, is the impact early-season lineup moves can have on playing time over a full season.
While the more obvious start/bench decisions and rookie call-ups garner the most attention, smaller tea leaves — such as tweaks to a team’s batting order — can have considerable impact on a player’s overall production.
For example, moving a hitter from eighth in the order to leadoff last season would have resulted in an average of 122 additional plate appearances (an increase of roughly 20%), according to Baseball-Reference.com.
Those extra opportunities can help boost several fantasy counting stats over the course of a full season. A 15 homer/15 steals line, all things being equal, can push towards 20/20, and a 30-steal speedster hitting low in the order could see a bump up to 35 or 40 with more runs if he moved near the top of the lineup.
There have been several notable ascents up the batting order early in 2016, some of which have further bolstered some already popular breakout targets and could lead to significant profit:
The top of the Arizona Diamondbacks batting order changed considerably after A.J. Pollock’s season-ending elbow injury April 1. Jean Segura has assumed the leadoff role, which should lead to a considerable jump in at-bats given that half of his playing time with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2015 came from the seven-hole.
Segura’s batting average has hovered around .250 since 2014, and he doesn’t draw many walks, but his excellent speed resulted in 89 stolen bases from 2013 to 2015. Segura should also get a boost playing for a team that led the majors in steal attempts last season under manager Chip Hale. Segura led the majors with 111 at-bats in April, and he makes frequent contact, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another 30-steal season from him in 2016.
After spending much of his short career hitting sixth for Arizona, Jake Lamb has moved up to the two-hole behind Segura, which should fuel the fire for an already popular breakout target.
Lamb, 25, has taken advantage of his move up the order with 22 hits in his first 79 at-bats (.278) and a .370 on-base percentage. Lamb has made plenty of hard contact as well, so the additional at bats from his new lineup spot should help kick in a few more home runs — and potentially a few steals — for the third baseman who is still in growth mode.
The Cincinnati Reds have a new 1-2 punch atop their lineup in Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez. Cozart, who was mostly stuck in the 5-8 slots last season, got off to an excellent start in 2015 (.258 batting average, nine home runs, three stolen bases in 194 at-bats) before a June knee injury cut his season short. Cozart consistently makes excellent contact and has shown growing power and decent speed at a thin position. The extra plate appearances at leadoff, combined with his improving skill set, suggest a healthy Cozart could be in for a career year.
Suarez took over Cozart’s job last June as a result of that knee injury and never looked back, as he hit .280 with 13 home runs in 372 at-bats. Most of that production came from the sixth and seventh spots in the order.
Suarez’s performance was enough to net him the full-time third base gig and a spot in the two-hole for 2016. The additional at-bats will only help the 24-year-old, who is showing a much-improved plate approach early in 2016 with a 0.44 walk-to-strikeout ratio (which was 0.18 in 2015). Suarez hit five homers with four steals and a .270 batting average in April, so we could be witnessing a breakout.
The leadoff gig for the Cleveland Indians has mostly gone to Rajai Davis early on, and while Davis’ 18 stolen bases last season were a career low, he long has shown the ability to swipe bags. He has seven steals through his first 19 games this season.
Davis’ questionable on-base percentage (.306 in 2015) is a risk, but he seems to have free rein on the basepaths, which could lead to another season of 30-plus steals.
Carlos Santana has made a few cameos as Cleveland’s leadoff man as well. Santana is a master at drawing walks (career 16% walk rate), a coveted trait for any leadoff hitter. Santana doesn’t run, but the extra appearances might lead to a few more home runs if he continues to see time atop the lineup.
In what was one of the more surprising ascents up an organizational ladder this spring, Joey Rickard went from Rule 5 pick to not only make the Baltimore Orioles, but to be their regular leadoff hitter. Rickard is off to a hot start with a .280 batting average through his first 93 at-bats. He racked up 79 steals over his last three minor league seasons, and his runs should get a significant boost in a Baltimore lineup that led the American League in home runs through April. Rickard might still be an unknown in your league, but that will change if he stays in the leadoff role.
Logan Forsythe enjoyed a breakout season in 2015 with a .281 batting average, 17 home runs, and nine stolen bases, most of which came from the fourth and fifth spots in Tampa Bay’s lineup.
Forsythe has been rewarded with an everyday job at leadoff in 2016, which should lock in a second consecutive 500 at-bat season and improve his odds of a repeat. He’s an even more intriguing option in daily leagues or daily formats against left-handed pitching: Forsythe owns a career .287 batting average against southpaws with 22 home runs in 550 at-bats.