Buying low in fantasy baseball often requires a high degree of risk

With terms such as “value,” “trading,” “discount” and “profit” part of the everyday discussion, it’s no wonder fantasy baseball is compared to playing the stock market.

One of the basic tenets of investing in stocks is buying low and selling high. We hear that often in fantasy baseball as well.

The major difference, however, is it’s relatively easy to buy or sell a stock. The hard part is knowing when it has reached a high or low point. In fantasy baseball, we have a pretty good idea when a player’s value is exceptionally high or low. But it’s much more difficult to find another owner in our league willing to help us cash in.

In fantasy leagues, trades are frequently a matter of two teams addressing positional or category needs than they are buying low and selling high.

For example, Nick Castellanos of the Detroit Tigers began the week leading the American League in hitting with a .371 average. Meanwhile, Kyle Seager of the Seattle Mariners needed a seven-game hitting streak to lift his average to .213. The main reason for the huge discrepancy: Castellanos had one of the highest batting averages on balls in play (.443), while Seager had one of the lowest (.205).

Both play the same position — third base — but Seager was among our preseason top 10 at the position, and Castellanos barely cracked the top 20. Clearly, the proper move would be to sell high on Castellanos and buy low on Seager. But that would require the other owner — who has access to the same statistics — to buy high and sell low.

Not so simple, is it?

In reality, fantasy owners who are truly looking to buy low have to go really low — for players who might as well be considered radioactive to everyone else in the league.

Yes, these players have been horrible values so far, but if you have roster space to buy low, there’s definite profit potential.

•SP Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks. Absolutely nothing was encouraging about his first six starts. With his control all over the place (7.3 walks per nine innings), his ERA was a staggering 8.49. He was hitting the ground with his pitching hand on his follow-through, indicating something drastically wrong with his mechanics.

However, he finally picked up his first win of the year Saturday, allowing two runs in six innings — and walking only two — against the Atlanta Braves. Miller is 25, and his highest ERA in four major league seasons is 3.74. There’s plenty of time to fix whatever’s wrong.

•RP Ken Giles, Houston Astros. Based purely on his raw talent and his brief but successful stint closing with the Philadelphia Phillies, I pegged Giles, 25, as a potential top-five closer when the Astros acquired him last offseason.

His fastball touches 100 mph, and his pretrade ERA was 1.56. He averaged 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

But something has gone dreadfully wrong since he joined his new team. In 11 2/3 innings as an Astro, Giles has already yielded more home runs (four) than he did in his entire time with the Phillies. Take away the homers and opponents still have a .396 average on balls in play. No wonder Giles’ ERA sits at 9.26.

But if fantasy owners are going to speculate on the likes of Joe Smith, Kevin Jepsen or anyone in the Cincinnati Reds bullpen for saves, why not take a chance on Giles regaining his dominant form and siphoning off a few opportunities from Luke Gregerson?

•DH Evan Gattis, Astros. There isn’t a whole lot of excitement surrounding someone who had offseason surgery, sat out the entire spring plus the first week of the regular season, doesn’t play the field and is hitting .203 with one homer. Plus, he was just demoted to Class AA.

Gattis has proven he can hit for power — with at least 20 homers in each of his three seasons in the majors. However, he’ll need to prove he can do one more thing.

Though he hasn’t played the position since 2014, the Astros sent Gattis to the minors to work on his catching skills with the hope he can give their offense a boost from behind the plate. (Astros catchers produced a .167 average, four home runs and 11 RBI through Saturday.)

If he’s successful — and he plays enough to qualify as a catcher — Gattis can be an even bigger asset in fantasy leagues.

•OF Billy Hamilton, Reds. His value has to be at an all-time low. He had a shoulder injury to start the season and has recently been dealing with a jammed thumb. That has led to a .205 average and .256 on-base percentage with five stolen bases.

We often talk about players who are “one skill away” from taking a significant leap in value. What if Hamilton figures out how to hit the ball on the ground to take advantage of his game-changing speed? Someone as fast as he is shouldn’t have a .250 average on balls in play or be striking out 20% of the time.

Like Miller and Giles, Hamilton is 25. There’s still time for these young pups to learn new tricks that can make them more fantasy-relevant.

Intriguing brew

This spring, I spent a significant amount of time at the Milwaukee Brewers camp.

I came away with the impression that although they might not be competitive in 2016, there were some decent pieces in place for the future.

I spent $16 on Chris Carter as my first baseman in NL LABR. And in my NL-only home league, I added outfielder Ryan Braun and shortstop Jonathan Villar to keeper Jonathan Lucroy at catcher (plus top prospect Orlando Arcia as my top pick in our minor-league draft).

Although the Brewers reside in the National League Central basement (an MLB-worst 5.69 ERA will do that), each of those hitters has been a fantasy asset.

Carter and Villar have been two of the more pleasant surprises.

Carter is hitting a robust .288 with 11 home runs, and is third in the majors in slugging percentage at .673.

Yes, this is the same Chris Carter who hit .199 last year with the Astros.

He has had streaks like this before. In 2014, Carter slugged 20 homers and posted a .278/.340/.629 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) slash line over a 51-game span in July and August.

It’s way too early to think he can sustain this year’s fast start. But he has cut his strikeout rate below 30%.

More important, the rebuilding Brewers won’t bench Carter even if he does slump. There’s no reason to think he can’t top his career high of 37 homers two years ago.

In contrast to the hulking, slugging Carter, Villar leads the NL in stolen bases with eight, including one in three consecutive games last week. Although he always has had good speed, an inability to get on base has kept him from using it.

A newfound patience at the plate (he’d walked in 12.8% of his plate appearances through Monday) pushed Villar’s on-base percentage to .366, giving him more opportunities to run.

Despite all his success, there’s still the question of how long Villar can hold off Arcia, the Brewers’ shortstop of the future. After all, the 21-year-old has adjusted nicely to his first taste of Class AAA — hitting .304 with three homers and 17 RBI in 92 at-bats.

But even when Arcia is ready, Villar could be an everyday player at third base.

As for the rest of the Brew Crew, Miller Park has given teams a 12% boost in scoring (ninth-best in the majors) and a 56% bump in home runs (fourth-best) this season, according to ESPN’s park factors.

That bodes well for Braun, Carter, Villar and Co. staying fantasy-relevant for the long haul.