8 players who started slow but can save your fantasy season

Every player goes through a slump during the long baseball season.

When it happens at the beginning of the year, fantasy owners often begin to panic, thinking their draft day investment isn’t going to pan out as expected. This can create a buying opportunity, because more often than not a player with a history of strong skills will return to form.

Let’s look at several players who have fallen short of expectations so far but are worth targeting in trade talks.

• Entering this season, Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds was a career .311 hitter with a .423 on-base-percentage and coming off a second half in which he got on base at a .530 clip. He has struggled out of the gate, hitting .229 through his first 109 at-bats. His line-drive rate is down a bit but not enough to explain his .288 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), way down from his .356 career mark.

Votto is striking out far more than usual, but he is back to drawing a lot of walks lately, with 11 in his last 12 games. That’s a good sign, and his long history of elite production should far outweigh a slow month. So buy him now if you can get him at any sort of discount.

• Justin Upton of the Detroit Tigers also has a long track record of excellence. Over the past seven seasons, he has hit .275 while averaging 25 home runs and 16 steals a season. The Tigers were confident he would continue at that level when they signed him to a six-year, $132 million deal in January, but he’s batting .235 with two home runs and one stolen base through 119 at-bats.

Upton’s plate approach has been abysmal. He has drawn a walk in 6% of his plate appearances, while 39% of his at-bats have ended in a strikeout. Though the early returns raise eyebrows, the sample is far too small to override a history of consistently strong skills. Odds are Upton will return to form in the near future.

• The St. Louis Cardinals’ Randal Grichuk made a big splash in 2015, when he connected for 17 home runs in 323 at-bats. He struck out more than a one-third of the time, but a .365 BABIP (the league average is around .300) kept his batting average afloat. This season, he has cut down on the strikeouts, but his BABIP is only .224, resulting in a batting average of .198.

The crowded Cardinals outfield could cut down on his playing time, which could leave Grichuk owners even more willing to move him. His plus power is unquestioned, and his batting average should soon be on the rise, leaving plenty of room for profit if you can grab him from an impatient owner.

• After missing most of the 2014 season, Prince Fielder came back strong with the Texas Rangers in 2015. He hit one homer in April but went on to hit .305 with 23 home runs. This season hasn’t started out well, as he has gone deep twice and is hitting .190 through 121 at-bats. Furthermore, he has walked eight times, resulting in an awful .235 on-base percentage.

Fielder has been victimized by a .214 BABIP, and he should fare much better in that category going forward. Though his power isn’t what it once was, he’s a good bet to make a run at 20 home runs again.

• Scott Kazmir was terrific for most of 2015, posting a 2.38 ERA along with an 8.3 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) in 18 starts with the Oakland Athletics. But after he was traded to the Houston Astros in late July, his numbers fell dramatically (4.17 ERA, 6.6 K/9). Through six starts with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2016, Kazmir’s surface stats look even worse, as his ERA sits at 5.68. However, look closer and you’ll see that his K/9 is up to 8.5, while he boasts a career-best 2.3 BB/9 (walks per nine innings).

Kazmir has been the victim of some rotten luck, as 18% of the fly balls he has surrendered have left the park (league average is 11%) and only 64% of the base runners he has allowed have been stranded (league average is 73%). Given the skills he’s flashing, he’s deserving of a much better fate. It shouldn’t be long before Kazmir’s ERA looks a lot better.

• Nathan Eovaldi of the New York Yankees has a 4.78 ERA through six starts in 2016, and a glance at his marks from the past couple of years (4.20 in 2015, 4.37 in 2014) wouldn’t suggest there’s anything to get excited about. However, Eovaldi made real gains during the second half of last year. He increased his splitter usage to more than 30%, leading to a jump in both ground balls and strikeouts.

This year, Eovaldi is throwing the splitter 25% of the time and has a 55% ground ball rate and 8.8 K/9, not to mention an elite 1.9 BB/9. The primary reason for his inflated ERA has been, as with Kazmir, an elevated rate at which fly balls leave the park (a fluky 19%). Eovaldi still has breakout potential in 2016, and the window to buy low on him might close quickly.

• Alex Wood of the Dodgers was a bit of a disappointment in 2015, when his ERA jumped more than a full run from the previous year, to 3.84. Through six starts this year, that number is up to 5.18, causing some owners to jump ship. Wood’s skills were admittedly shaky in his first four outings, when he had an ugly 1.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, his last two starts have netted 16 strikeouts against just one walk, and he recorded double-digit swinging strikes in both outings.

Wood has shown the swing-and-miss stuff before. He recorded an 8.9 K/9 in 2013 and 2014, before it fell to 6.6 a season ago. He also has bumped up an already strong ground ball rate, with 57% of his balls in play falling into that category. That combination could make him valuable in even the shallowest of leagues.

• Sonny Gray entered the season with a 2.88 career ERA, and while expecting some regression was reasonable, his current 4.84 ERA is a little extreme. Gray continues to induce a ton of ground balls, and his K/9 sits at a healthy 8.2. But he has issued more walks than usual (4.2 BB/9), and he has had issues with the long ball for the first time in his career.

Gray’s percentage of pitches inside the strike zone are at a career high, so his walk rate should improve. If a Gray owner is having his doubts, don’t be afraid to make a deal for the pitcher.