Fantasy owners can cash in on these hot starters
The ideal time to acquire a player in fantasy baseball is when he’s at or near his lowest value. Once he hits his basement, the only direction to go is up. One of the keys to winning is riding that upward wave with as many players as possible.
Contrarily, the best time to sell a player is at his peak value, especially those without an extensive track record or those who carry certain risky traits.
Sellers should consider these reasons to unload a potential commodity (all stats through Sunday):
1. Skills drop-off
The most common reason to offer up an excelling player is the likelihood of his statistics returning to a normal, less-helpful pace.
Players over time can establish vastly different statistical benchmark expectations, and that should dictate how believable their performance can be.
Say, if a player typically bats .280 and has hit .320 so far, the normalization won’t be particularly hurtful. The wider the gap between what’s happening now and a realistic expectation, the harsher the crash he — and, more important, your fantasy team — is likely to feel.
In fact, batting average is one of the easiest anomalies to notice and one of the most consistent statistics to correct itself over the length of a season. A few examples stand out:
2B-3B Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
Murphy isn’t Ted Williams. So that .400 batting average will not last. He also has kept a ridiculous .425 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which ranks near the top of the league, per Fangraphs. The highest BABIPs at the end of the last two seasons were .387 in 2015 (Odubel Herrera) and .373 in 2014 (Starling Marte).
That gives you an idea of how far that number and, in turn, Murphy’s average will dip. He also doesn’t lock in as a threat for double-digit stolen bases, which would be ideal to supplement the value of a middle infielder. A large chunk of his value relies on his batting average.
Still, at fifth, sixth or even sometimes cleanup, Murphy occupies an advantageous spot in this dangerous order, and he has hit at least .281 in six of his previous seven seasons. So he could still rank among the batting average leaders at season’s end.
Also, with five home runs, his expanded power in last year’s postseason looks realistic, instead of a fall fluke.
3B Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers
He had been one of Paste BN Sports’ favorite breakout candidates this preseason. You can strongly believe in the power, backed by the increase in fly balls. That batting average, though? No thanks.
While he has increased his ability to make contact, it’s still a weak point for him. That, combined with his paltry 5.8% walk rate, do not back up his .398 BABIP.
Expect a 20-plus-homer season … along with a hit drought sometime during the final four months that will drag him and your team down.
SP J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers come with much of their own risks if they’re overperforming, because their sample size is much smaller, meaning there could be an even bigger skew in output and a larger correction.
Happ took a step forward last season when he was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. He carried that over to his first seven starts with the Blue Jays, with a 2.05 ERA and a career-best 1.16 WHIP, held down by a sturdy 2.42 walk rate.
There’s more to this story, though. He enjoyed plenty of good fortune: He stranded 89.9% of runners that reached base against him during that stretch — way above the league average that usually hovers in the low 70s.
While he’s inducing plenty of swinging strikes, he was not finishing hitters off, striking out only 5.59 of them per nine innings entering start No. 8. That’s quite the Doug Fister-like number.
The volatility behind his peripheral indicators predicted a steep rise in ERA, and he was rocked by the Tampa Bay Rays for eight runs on seven hits in two innings Monday.
2. Role change in the future
Fantasy owners frequently enjoy a player thriving after playing time fell into his lap after spring training. But not every early opportunity will last the whole season. To maximize what such fleeting contributors offer, pawn them off before they lose their window for productivity.
SS Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals
Diaz is not a total smoke-and-mirrors display. His power looks legit, and many might underestimate his batting average ability while overlooking his nice contact rate.
But his .381 BABIP is way too high, and he’s bound to slow down. If that happens right around the time that Jhonny Peralta returns from the disabled list, Diaz might struggle to keep an everyday job, especially if he can’t improve his defense.
RP Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
Maybe your competitors haven’t read that Kevin Cash aims to reinstall Brad Boxberger as closer upon his return, set to happen in the next few weeks. Colome has flexed great skills as a reliever, but without save opportunities, they won’t make as big a dent in standard mixed leagues. You could even try selling him to Boxberger’s owner for the security of locking up this saves situation, on the tale that Boxberger could injure himself again or Colome could push him out.
3. Health risk
Sometimes, we’re thankful that players are simply on the field to showcase their talents. These two names, however, carry a history of health issues (recent or extended), and present more risk than most when it comes to staying active.
SP Matt Harvey, New York Mets
The Mets’ marquee pitchers were forced to throw extensive innings in last year’s postseason, which led to a notable increase from 2014.
In turn, the Mets’ big arms have had different levels of health scares.
Harvey was supposed to be limited last season after the previous year’s Tommy John elbow surgery, but he was busy and seems to be feeling the effects.
Despite his 4.93 ERA, most will believe he’s bound to get back to business as usual because of his 8.08 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.56 walks per nine. Time to extract maximum value from his new owner.
OF Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays
Saunders has a high ceiling in power and speed. But he also has lost lots of time in recent years because of freak injuries. How long can he sustain his momentum in the first month and a half, when he has hit .328 with five home runs and 12 RBI in his first 32 games?
You’re likelier to persuade potential buyers in deeper leagues. Many who need an offensive boost will look at Saunders’ important place in a potent lineup and drool over the chance they could own him for his breakthrough year. Play into that fantasy and exchange him for a much more reliable contributor.