Exhibit A of parks’ impact: Zack Greinke
With one-quarter of the season in the books, fantasy owners are looking for answers. (Of course, when are they not looking for answers?)
What’s wrong with Matt Harvey? When will Joey Votto start hitting?
Most often, the answer is: in due time.
We can look at all of the advanced metrics we want and see that Harvey’s velocity is down or that Votto is hitting the ball hard more frequently than ever yet has a batting average on balls in play that’s almost 100 points below his career norm.
Other than an unreported injury, we have no idea why players aren’t performing the way they have throughout their careers. Players are always changing. They go through ups and downs. Eventually, those short-term anomalies even out.
Ballparks, on the other hand, are much more consistent. Although they do have their own personalities and weather conditions can be unpredictable, the dimensions of the stadiums in the major leagues remain constant throughout the season.
How much of an impact does the ballpark have on a player’s performance?
We know a few generalities. Coors Field is a great place for offense. AT&T Park makes hitting home runs difficult. Those axioms have been true for years.
Although they might not provide all of the answers to our questions about some players’ early-season performances, park factors might help explain some anomalies.
Chase Field, Phoenix
It was almost a foregone conclusion that Zack Greinke wouldn’t be able to duplicate his stellar 2015 numbers once he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Over the past decade, Dodger Stadium has consistently favored pitchers, while Chase Field has been among the top 10 venues for scoring every year but one since 2003, according to ESPN’s Park Factor calculations. (Numbers are derived by taking the average number of runs scored by both teams at home vs. on the road.)
But Greinke’s 4.59 ERA through his first 10 starts with the Diamondbacks is nearly triple his ERA last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Could his new home park be responsible for the jump?
Greinke has yielded eight home runs in 64 2/3 innings, compared with 14 allowed in 222 2/3 innings last season.
Here’s the clincher: All but one have come at home.
Chase Field has been a launching pad in 2016. A year ago, it actually decreased home runs by 14%, but through Sunday it has seen a 54% increase over the average MLB park. That difference is the second-greatest in the majors. (Yankee Stadium, the No. 1 venue for home runs in 2016, is first.)
There might be hope for Greinke, however, as he learns to pitch in his new home.
Anecdotally, the ball carries much better when the roof is open. That was the case in Greinke’s first start as a Diamondback, when he served up three homers against the Colorado Rockies. He has pitched three times with the roof open, and in those starts he’s 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA.
In three starts with the roof closed, he’s 2-0 with a 5.14 ERA. But in four road starts, he’s 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA.
The oppressive Arizona heat means the retractable roof at Chase Field will be closed most of the time going forward. While it might not be enough to turn Greinke’s season fully around, it could help him cut down on the one thing that’s hurting him the most: the gopher ball.
Marlins Park, Miami
One of three stadiums that altered their dimensions for 2016, Marlins Park lowered the height of the outfield fences and brought them in closer in center and right field.
In 21 home games, the Park Factor for scoring there has gone from 5% below league average to 2% above average.
If the change was designed to increase home runs, it has worked swimmingly. Marlins Park ranked 28th of 30 for homers last season, suppressing them by 26%. In 2016, it ranks 11th with a 2% boost.
That should be great news for Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton, except he has four home runs at home and seven on the road.
Though he’s hitting homers, Stanton’s .211 average and a career-high 34% strikeout rate have made him a major disappointment to fantasy owners. He recently went hitless in an entire series against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The average should get better, because he’s hitting .263 on balls in play (compared to .327 over his career). The leader in average exit velocity last season, Stanton isn’t crushing the ball the way he usually does. His hard-hit rate this year (36.4%) would be the lowest he has had in any major league season.
As long as he can make a bit more consistent contact, Stanton should see a significant uptick in home runs as he takes advantage of his home park’s more hitter-friendly dimensions.
Citi Field, New York
The New York Mets also moved the fences closer in right-center field this offseason. Though it has seen a bit more offense in the early going, Citi Field is still playing as a pitcher’s park. It’s just not as extreme.
It decreased scoring by 13% a year ago, but only 8% this season, making it the 13th-worst park for offense instead of the third worst.
Despite the struggles Harvey and a few other Mets pitchers have experienced, their collective 3.10 ERA ranks third overall. At home, they’re even better with a 2.86 ERA.
Coors Field, Denver
The Rockies took the opposite approach in the offseason and raised the height of the outfield wall down the left-field line and in between right-center and right field.
Even so, Coors remains the top-ranked park for offense at 56% above the major league average.
Despite the structural changes, scoring and home runs are both running ahead of last season. Perhaps the Trevor Story factor is simply a greater force.
The rookie shortstop is slugging .620 at home with 13 of his 20 hits for extra bases. (A .594 slugging percentage on the road isn’t too shabby, either.)
However, the higher fences have taken at least two balls Story hit that would have been home runs last season and turned them into triples.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Perhaps the biggest of the surprises over the season’s first quarter is that traditionally hitter-friendly Camden Yards has seen a larger drop in its impact on both scoring and home runs than any other stadium.
That’s despite the Orioles leading the majors in homers with an average of 1.5 a game.
How is that possible? It’s because the O’s power-laden lineup can hit the ball out of any park, while their pitchers are doing a great job of keeping opposing hitters in the yard.
The question is whether the trend will continue.
In 2015, Oriole Park ranked third in promoting scoring (+23%) and second in home runs (+41%). Only once in the past decade has it not been among the 10 most hitter-friendly parks.
But through Sunday, it ranked 21st overall and had actually suppressed scoring by 11% and home runs by 10%.
Fantasy owners enjoying good production from Baltimore pitchers Chris Tillman (2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), Kevin Gausman (2.70, 1.12) or Tyler Wilson (3.68, 1.15) should be prepared for what could be a major correction as the season progresses.