Look at teams first when mining for stolen bases

In 1987, Vince Coleman led a track meet in Major League Baseball, as 31 players logged 40-plus stolen base attempts

Fast-forward to 2016. The game is as freewheeling as 5 o’clock on a Friday on a Florida freeway. At this point in the season, only 11 players project to more than 40 attempts.

As recently as 2011, managers started runners about 7% of the time when there was a stolen-base opportunity. This season, that’s down to 5%. Two percentage points might not seem like much, but over a full season, it’s 900 fewer attempts, and 625 fewer stolen bases.

Today, teams increasingly flash the green light only to their best basestealers. In 2011, half of all stolen-base attempts were piled up by 69 players; this year, that number is down to 55.

Avoid these teams

Fantasy managers looking for stolen bases should probably avoid players on eight teams. The Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers run on 4% of their opportunities, Specifically, the Angels have held Mike Trout to seven attempts in 83 opportunities despite his 86% success rate.

Four more teams are sending runners 3% of the time:

• Without Dee Gordon, the Miami Marlins have no batter with a success rate of 70% or better, including oft-touted Christian Yelich.

• The New York Mets’ two stealers, Alejandro De Aza and former threat David Wright, are also both under 70% success rate in limited tries.

• St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong is 3-for-3 but doesn’t play much. Their top player in attempts, outfielder Stephen Piscotty, has six attempts — and was gunned down in three of them.

• And the Toronto Blue Jays don’t need to steal bases. Outfielder Ezequiel Carrera has had the green light in 10% of his opportunities, many as a pinch-runner. Outfielder Kevin Pillar is 4-for-5 but might get even fewer opportunities now that he and his .271 on-base percentage are at the bottom of the order where they belong.

Finally, avoid Baltimore Orioles altogether. They have run in 2% of their opportunities.

Teams to target

To boost stolen-base totals, look to players with good stolen-base success rates with good on-base percentages but not much power and playing for teams willing to run.

Start with the Milwaukee Brewers, who send runners in about 9% of their opportunities. As a team, they have a break-even 72% success rate.

Three Milwaukee players are more than 25% in attempts and more than 71% in success rate. The obvious target is stolen-base leader, Jonathan Villar. Also check out third baseman Hernan Perez, 7-for-8 in stolen bases, who sports a .353 OBP in 69 plate appearances since his late-April call-up. Be warned, though: Although Perez had a .364 OBP this season at Class AAA Colorado Springs, he hasn’t been a reliable OBP guy in the past.

A speculative pick in Milwaukee is outfielder Keon Broxton, a speedster who stole 39 in Class AA and Class AAA last season in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ organization. He started this season in Milwaukee but was demoted to Colorado Springs.

In the thin air, he fattened his OBP to .390, with a 13% walk rate, and was 15-for-19 (79%) in steals. He also hit seven home runs. Broxton’s current OBP is barely over .200, but he is 2-for-2 in attempts and has a huge playing time opportunity with outfielder Domingo Santana on the disabled list and outfielder Ryan Braun battling a balky back.

The Houston Astros send runners with a profitable 73% success rate, even though George Springer has been wildly unsuccessful (3-for-9). Jose Altuve is an obvious target, running in 16% of his opportunities with a 94% success rate. Outfielder Jake Marisnick has a favorable stolen-base history, and could be worth watching if he gets added playing time. He was 24-for-33 last season in 372 plate appearances and is 2-for-2 in limited play this season.

The Cincinnati Reds have impressive team-level stats, but they are skewed by outfielder Billy Hamilton, who has run in 36% of his opportunities; no other Red is over 17%. Hamilton is a controversial acquisition because his offense is empty once you get past the steals and runs. He also has a good — though not great — 75% success rate.

Five teams are running on 7% of their opportunities:

• Cleveland Indians outfielder Rajai Davis runs in one-quarter of his opportunities with a 79% success rate, though his .319 OBP holds him back. No such issue for shortstop Francisco Lindor, whose .371 OBP sets him up for plenty of chances, which he takes 13% of the time and succeeds in over 90%.

• Kansas City Royals outfielder Terrance Gore’s baserunning metrics are off the charts, though there’s little else appealing about his offensive game and very little playing time looming. Outfielder Jarrod Dyson has run in 33% of the time, and his 80% success means he’ll see a continued green light. Outfielder Lorenzo Cain and shortstop Alcides Escobar have attempt rates in the mid-teens, but Cain’s 67% success rate could put the brakes on. Escobar is 10-for-12 (83%) and should keep running.

• The Minnesota Twins have a few options, starting with infielder Eduardo Nunez. He’s at 19% in attempts and 75% in success rate. Outfielder-shortstop Danny Santana is tied for sixth in majors with 10 steals, but a 63% success suggests the Twins will be hanging the stop sign.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have two studly basestealers and a speculative play. The studs are outfielder Starling Marte, who has succeeded 85% of the time, and third baseman Josh Harrison, who takes fewer chances (8% attempt rate) but is 7-for-8 (88%). Outfielder Gregory Polanco runs 14% of the time, but his 70% success is borderline, especially for this metrics-conscious team.

• The San Diego Padres offer resurgent outfielder Melvin Upton Jr., who has run in almost 20% of his opportunities at a 75% success rate. Upton has run in the past, with five consecutive years with more than 30 steals, three of those more than 40. He even had 20 in a dreadful 2014. Outfielder Travis Jankowski and utility man Alexi Amarista are at 26% attempts in limited plate appearances, but while Amarista is 80% successful, Jankowski is at 67%.

When searching for steals, remember to focus on aggressive running teams, then on individual players.