Jameson Taillon makes splash for Pirates
NEW YORK – It’s not always the case, but some nights there’s a feeling at the ballpark that something special is about to happen.
Baseball has a way of slowly building up to its dramatic moments.
I felt it earlier this season at Nationals Park in Max Scherzer’s 20-strikeout game. The tension level kept rising as he racked up the K’s, reaching a fever pitch as he struck out the side in the eighth to get to 18 — and then whiffed the first two batters in the ninth to tie the single-game record.
It happened again last week when Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Jameson Taillon took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the New York Mets — before Curtis Granderson grounded a single through the overshift to break it up.
We talk about numbers so much in fantasy baseball, but it’s particularly rewarding when the eye test backs up those statistical conclusions.
Taillon was outstanding with Class AAA Indianapolis, posting a 2.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) in 10 starts. Even more impressive, he struck out 61 batters and walked six in 612/3 innings. His ability to command the strike zone pushed him ahead of another highly regarded pitching prospect in the Pirates system, Tyler Glasnow.
With ace Gerrit Cole on the disabled list, the Pirates might have no choice but to keep the 24-year-old right-hander in their rotation for good.
From a fantasy standpoint, Taillon is the classic case of a post-hype sleeper.
He was the second overall pick in the 2010 MLB draft — after Bryce Harper and before Manny Machado — but his route to the majors was far less direct.
Injuries, including a torn elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery, cost him the 2014 and 2015 seasons, so it wasn’t a surprise to see him off the fantasy radar this spring.
Even in deep single-league formats such as the National League-only League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), Taillon wasn’t among the 348 players taken in either the auction or the reserve round. Because of LABR’s rule that only active major leaguers can be picked up during the season, Taillon was available on the waiver wire for the first time this week. Out of a $100 free agent acquisition budget (FAAB), he went for $42 in the NL-only league and $33 in the mixed league.
Those fantasy owners are banking on Taillon remaining in the Pirates rotation for a significant portion of the season. But the move carries a lot of risk.
In addition to the ups and downs all rookie pitchers experience (and he got a dose of reality Sunday when the Chicago Cubs hit three homers against him in four innings), the fact that Taillon didn’t pitch the past two seasons means the Pirates will almost certainly limit his workload.
This season, Taillon has thrown 18 innings in the majors and 79 2/3 overall. His highest total in any professional season was 147 1/3 in 2013.
Fantasy owners in keeper leagues should welcome the Pirates’ concern for Taillon’s long-term health. But owners playing for this year would be wise to consider trading him while his value is high.
Second thoughts
Another noteworthy event in that Pirates-Mets game was that it might have marked the end of outfielder Andrew McCutchen’s time hitting in the No. 2 spot.
From a sabermetric perspective, a team should slot its best hitter second — to maximize the number of at-bats he gets and to give him the best chance to score and drive in runs.
That was the Pirates’ line of thinking when they slotted McCutchen there in spring training.
After hitting third all of last season, the 2011 NL MVP spent the first 61 games of the season hitting second, and the results were less than optimal.
His .237/.317/.402 slash line put him on pace for career lows in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Manager Clint Hurdle moved McCutchen to the No. 3 spot. Two days later, he ended a 0-for-15 slump and hit his first home run since May 27.
McCutchen said the key for him was making better adjustments at the plate, not any difference mentally between hitting second or third. But he’s not the only high-profile player to struggle uncharacteristically in the No. 2 spot this season:
• Detroit Tigers outfielder Justin Upton began the season hitting No. 2 in what seemed to be a prime position ahead of two-time American League MVP Miguel Cabrera. The results were dismal — a .211/.238/.303 slash line with one home run and four RBI in 18 games. The Tigers dropped him down in the order April 27, and his numbers have improved (.246/.309/.400 through Sunday). But they’re a long way from what he has done in the past.
• Washington Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon began the season hitting second in front of Harper.
Yet he, too, struggled to produce anywhere close to his career level. He had a .236 average, two homers and six RBI in 36 games hitting second when Nats manager Dusty Baker dropped him down in the order May 17, and he has hit .283 with five homers and 20 RBI in the 30 games since.
• With good speed and a .351 career on-base percentage, Chicago Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward fits the mold of a prototypical No. 2 hitter. In one of the game’s best offenses, he should be putting up huge numbers. Yet that hasn’t necessarily been the case.
Heyward is getting on base at a .330 clip. He didn’t hit his first home run of the season until May 17, and he has four for the season. Still, manager Joe Maddon has resisted moving him in the order.
The odd thing about these underperforming hitters is that bad luck hasn’t really been a major contributor to their struggles.
Through Sunday, McCutchen had a .301 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), 37 points below his career norm. His biggest problem has been a career-worst 25% strikeout rate.
Upton’s BABIP was a few points higher than his career mark, and Rendon’s and Heyward’s BABIPs were slightly lower than their career norms.
Perhaps at least some of these players’ struggles can be attributed to hitting in unfamiliar places in the lineup. But contrast that to several others who’ve been moved to the leadoff spot this season as a way to get out of their offensive slumps — and succeeded tremendously.
George Springer started leading off spot for the Houston Astros on May 24 and since then has a .279/.350/.486 slash line with six homers, 19 runs and 16 RBI as the Astros have won 17 of 25.
Around the same time, the Baltimore Orioles moved .223-hitting Adam Jones to the top of the order, and over the next 23 games he hit .281 with eight homers, 19 runs and 22 RBI. His slugging percentage before the switch: .357. Afterward: .573.
A 14-9 record with Jones hitting leadoff elevated Baltimore to first in the AL East.
Conventional wisdom has generally frowned on putting sluggers first in the order, but the success Springer and Jones have enjoyed might make it worth a second look.
In fact, two of the three most valuable hitters in fantasy this season have spent most of their time in the leadoff role.
Jose Altuve ($40) occupied that spot for the Astros before Springer moved up. And the Boston Red Sox’s Mookie Betts ($37) has become a multicategory fantasy star by igniting baseball’s most prolific offense.
As is the case in most instances, it’s better to be No. 1 than No. 2.