Fantasy football undervalued: Take advantage of these cheap buys

An undervalued player cannot be confused with a sleeper. Sometimes sleepers are undervalued, but undervalued names aren’t always sleepers.

Average draft position (ADP) isn’t a be-all, end-all indicator for fantasy player valuation, but that doesn’t mean it is useless, either. Treat it as a small piece of the puzzle when trying to identify a player’s perceived worth.

Casual leagues may stray wildly from the ADP figures below, so be careful. More competitive leagues tend to follow the averages, incidentally or otherwise.

Note: ADP figures based on 12-team, PPR scoring formats.

QB Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders | ADP: 13th round

What more must Carr do to gain the trust of most fantasy owners? He posted wonderful numbers as a rookie in 2014 and followed with a strong sophomore campaign in which he wound up tied for the seventh-most touchdown passes thrown (32). Wide receiver Michael Crabtree resurrected his once-promising career, and that was while playing second-fiddle to Amari Cooper, who is poised for a monster effort in his second season. The Raiders sport a strong offensive line and a competent running game. To answer the question, Carr needs to produce slightly more yardage through the air to solidify his status as a weekly fantasy start and earn that respect.

RB Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 8th round

The 16th overall scorer among PPR running backs a year ago, there’s no reason to feel Sims should regress much. He’s in the prime of his career and has an aging starter ahead of him. While Sims is best used as a change-of-pace back, the Bucs gave him 107 carries in ’15, which he made the most of at 4.9 yards per pop, and he may see more carries. Receiving touchdowns for running backs are tricky to project, and it’s unlikely Sims will exceed the four he produced last season. He didn’t find the end zone on the ground, though, giving hope for improvement. Sims is a handcuff to Doug Martin or flex target in reception-rewarding leagues.

QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 11th round

Ryan finished 16th in standard fantasy passing points last year with only one weapon, which is down from seventh, ninth, fifth and eighth, respectively, the previous four seasons. You know, when he had weapons. The front office made it a point to give him more targets in tight end Austin Hooper and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. It would be foolish to omit Julio Jones’ name from this paragraph. Ryan’s line was upgraded, as well. His schedule is so-so, but if nothing else, he should be a volume passer.

TE Jordan Cameron, Miami Dolphins | ADP: 14th round

Miami’s entire offense should improve, especially their offensive line, which frees up Cameron from some blocking responsibilities. He’ll have the benefit of being utilized to his skill set in this system, and head coach Adam Gase was able to take a similar tight end in Julius Thomas to new heights. Cameron’s price tag means you can either wait entirely on the position or nab him as a high-upside reserve.

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 10th round

Regardless of the quarterback battle between Sam Bradford and Carson Wentz, Ertz is the clear winner. Both passers will rely heavily on the tight end position in Doug Pederson’s offense. Perhaps a little more should it be Wentz under center. Ertz’s athleticism and downfield capabilities give Pederson a weapon similar to what he had with Travis Kelce in Kansas City. Ertz broke out in 2015 and should get even better this season around the goal line.

RB Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions | ADP: 7th round

Detroit tied Jacksonville for the second fewest rushing attempts in the NFL last season, with just 22.1 per game. Seven individual running backs rushed for more touchdowns than the Lions’ seven. Detroit’s running game can go almost anywhere but down. Losing Calvin Johnson should assist the transition into a more even approach — Detroit was the least balanced offense in 2015. Abdullah is coming off January shoulder surgery, which is causing his stock to fall. It’s a shoulder, not a wheel. Use this to your advantage as long as he remains on track for training camp. Abdullah is a value buy after Round 8.

TE Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars | ADP: 8th round

On a per-game basis in 2015, Thomas averaged 10.1 PPR points. It was his first year in a new system, and he didn’t get a chance to build a strong on-field rapport with quarterback Blake Bortles after suffering an early injury in camp. It’s hard to see both wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns being as lethal again this year, and Thomas should pick up some of that slack.

WR Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta Falcons | ADP: 11th round

There are enough balls to go around in this offense for players other than Julio Jones to offer meaningful fantasy contribution. Sanu seemingly has locked up the No. 2 gig over Justin Hardy. The Falcons are likely to send some of Devonta Freeman’s 73 receptions to Sanu, and it’s hard to imagine Julio will see a whopping 203 targets again this year. Sanu is a late-round value buy.

RB C.J. Spiller, New Orleans Saints | ADP: 14th round

Spiller was a sleeper darling last offseason and proved to be one of the biggest flops in recent memory. A summer knee injury cost him valuable practice time and put him into the doghouse. He never recovered. It’s a new year with a fresh slate, but watch his camp battle with Tim Hightower. PPR owners only should see a smidgen of upside left in Spiller. He’s worth his late-round price tag.

RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina Panthers | ADP: 14th round

Jonathan Stewart (ankle) is already banged up and no stranger to injury throughout his career. CAP comes into his second year with a less dizzying offseason to learn the nuances of the system and gain trust among the coaching staff. He fits the model of a true replacement should Stewart miss significant action. More touches are in store either way. Secure Carolina’s backfield if you own J-Stew, or add Artis-Payne as a speculative RB buy.

QB Robert Griffin III, Cleveland Browns | ADP: 14th round

Injury concerns and playing for Cleveland — surrounded by largely unproven talent and who-knows-what in Josh Gordon Week 5 return — rightfully weigh down Griffin’s fantasy appeal as well as draft stock. He has to reprove himself to gain respect. Fantasy owners need to get ahead of these things, and when the price is right, as it is in this case, there is no harm in drafting RG3’s upside after a fresh start in the final rounds of your draft as a QB2 behind a stud or a QB3 in a weekly rotation.

QB Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers | ADP: N/A

Frankly, Kaepernick is a wild card. He has undergone three surgeries in the past year and needs to prove himself all over. The battle with quarterback Blaine Gabbert can go either way once Kap gets back on the field, but his raw athletic gifts may endear him to Chip Kelly. Stay tuned.

K Matt Prater, Detroit Lions | ADP: 15th round

Avoid a kicker until your last pick. Always. Prater makes for a sneaky buy after your league mates whiff and spend earlier picks on the position. He connected on 22 of his 24 field goal attempts in 2015, tying him with the overdrafted Stephen Gostkowski in accuracy (91.7%). Count on closer to 30 attempts from this neutered offense.