Week 1 is time to recalibrate fantasy expectations
Now that the regular season is at hand, freshly drafted fantasy teams can take their initial steps toward league domination.
No matter how much research and analysis was required for your draft, there’s still the matter of taking advantage of that knowledge. It all starts in Week 1.
Slow-starting rookies
Almost all rookies open up to a dud first week — and ones who explode in Week 1 often fade starting the very next game. Last year, Amari Cooper opened with five catches for 47 yards. Todd Gurley ran for 9 yards on six carries in his first game.
Temper expectations for rookies in their initial games. Talent matters most, and it often takes time to show up. Not all rookies turn into stars, but far too many of them are cast aside by impatient owners.
Injury report changes
The NFL made changes this season to the way injuries are reported, and Week 1 will be our first glimpse of how that applies to your roster.
There will be no more “probable” status. Instead, a player must be listed as either “questionable” (uncertain to play), “doubtful” (unlikely to play) or “out” (will not play). The fantasy dilemma is that “out” has been removed from practice reports. Owners who have to make decisions involving players in Thursday games cannot be certain whether another player might be out Sunday because his final status is not reported until Friday.
Week 1 will indicate if the new rules will actually help or hurt in determining players’ true injury status.
Week 1 flukes
Every season, a few surprising players — usually wide receivers — have big games in Week 1. It might be their only notable performance.
Last year, Nate Washington’s first game as a Houston Texan saw him catch six passes for 105 yards. That was more than his next three games combined. In 2014, Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings gained 128 total yards and scored once before disappearing.
Fantasy owners still remember the Dallas Cowboys’ Kevin Ogletree, who opened 2012 with eight catches for 112 yards and two scores. The next week he had one catch for 26 yards.
Before running to the waiver wire to pick up one of these guys and dump an unproductive rookie, make sure there is a reason for that breakout receiver to continue to produce. He must be one of the two starting wideouts for his team, or you’re chasing inconsistent play at best. There is no better week for waiver wire finds than after the season opener, but don’t let a single big game impress you more than it should.
Stat sheet truths
The season opener gives fantasy owners an opportunity to put things in proper perspective. Teams’ only real goal in the preseason was to determine which 53 players made the final roster. Week 1 is the very first time we’ll see reality. Several teams will roll out new offenses and new players — with big fantasy implications.
The Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants have new offensive coordinators, but they all promoted from within and don’t expect much change.
Other teams will be showcasing all new situations that could yield fantasy advantages and must be followed for Week 1. Theirs are the most interesting box scores of the year.
Cleveland Browns: Head coach Hue Jackson imports his offense from Cincinnati. Quarterback Robert Griffin III now passes to top rookie Corey Coleman and a converted quarterback in Terrelle Pryor, while waiting for Josh Gordon to serve his four-game suspension. On paper this is already a much-improved team.
Dallas Cowboys: While the coaches and scheme remain the same, rolling out rookie Dak Prescott as the starting quarterback alone is a major new slant. The draft’s best running back, Ezekiel Elliott, behind a great offensive line could help open up the passing lanes for Prescott.
Detroit Lions: Jim Bob Cooter’s first full season as offensive coordinator kicks off without star wideout Calvin Johnson. But newly arrived Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin join Golden Tate in a new-look set of receivers. A plan to get Ameer Abdullah more work in the backfield only adds another layer of fantasy intrigue.
Miami Dolphins: A clean slate was given to ex-Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase to run the team and work his quarterback magic on Ryan Tannehill. Wide receiver Kenny Stills worked his way up to a starting spot, and veteran running back Arian Foster seeks to continue his career. There should be much more offensive punch than there was the last few years.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Chip Kelly regime is no longer around, but the focus remains on the offense with coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich. Trading quarterback Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings brings an earlier-than-expected switch to rookie Carson Wentz under center. Acquiring Dorial Green-Beckham upgrades the receivers, while the trade of DeMarco Murray means more work for Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles.
San Francisco 49ers: Kelly’s quick-fire offense is certain to bring big changes to the mundane offense of the last few years. The players are essentially the same but are in new roles.
Carlos Hyde works in an offensive scheme that ranked No. 1 in carries in each of last two years. Torrey Smith is the only starting receiver returning from 2015. There are bound to be surprises in an offense that will generate more plays teamed with a defense that could force the 49ers to play from behind in most games.
Tennessee Titans: Mike Mularkey was promoted to head coach, but he’ll employ a run-heavy scheme along with offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie. With both Murray and Derrick Henry in the backfield, this is all new. And when they pass, second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota has all new starting wideouts plus a green light to run more when the receivers are not open.
The beauty of Week 1 is that we don’t have to guess anymore. We just have to find the previously unknowable advantages and react.