Injuries carry offseason intrigue for fantasy owners
Whether your fantasy team is in a pennant race or not, by this time in the season it’s natural to start looking toward next year. One thing to consider when doing so is injuries.
Most fantasy GMs are familiar with the one-year timeline to recover from Tommy John elbow surgery, but beyond that the situations get more complicated. Often the effects of an injury in the current season can linger into the next, even if the player returns to the field.
Let’s take a look at some significant 2016 injuries and try to assess their impact on 2017 in terms of risk level, playing time and effectiveness.
National League
• Kyle Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs suffered tears to the anterior and lateral cruciate ligaments in his left knee in the season’s first week, and his recovery appears to be going well. He should resume baseball activities before reporting to camp in February. However, he will likely need ongoing rehab and might not be at full strength until 2018. There’s a good chance his knee will not hold up under the strain of catching in 2017, so consider Schwarber an outfielder from here on.
Potential impact: Permanent position change, reduced playing time, reduced effectiveness.
• Michael Wacha of the St. Louis Cardinals faces a recurrence of a rare baseball injury, scapular stress reaction, he first suffered in 2014. Only three other pitchers have ever been diagnosed with this injury, and though Brandon McCarthy has returned to pitch, he has been beset with shoulder problems since.
Wacha performed well after the injury in 2014, and he has plenty of time to get ready for 2017. While he could return to form, the likelihood of the injury popping up again makes him a high-risk player for the duration of his career.
Potential impact: Elevated risk, reduced playing time, reduced effectiveness.
• Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco had surgery in May to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Then he had a second surgery to repair a right hip impingement. Doctors are optimistic that once he recovers he will be stronger and more athletic than before the procedures. However, labrum surgery does not have a robust track record.
Mesoraco has missed almost two full years of baseball, so expect some rust in early 2017. On the plus side, the Reds might give him some time in the outfield to help ease him back in, which would give him some lower-stress playing time.
Potential impact: Elevated risk, reduced effectiveness early, possible position change.
• Matt Harvey of the New York Mets had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, a condition in which the blood vessels and nerves descending from the neck get pinched between the collarbone and the first vertebrae. Only a dozen or so pitchers have had this surgery, so it’s a limited sample, but the majority of pitchers have resumed their typical career path afterward.
The Mets are expecting Harvey to be ready to go in the spring, and the most likely result is a return to his ace form. However, his risk is still elevated because of his Tommy John surgery in 2013 and high workload in 2015.
Potential impact: Elevated risk.
• Right-hander Tyson Ross of the San Deigo Padres illustrates the challenges in evaluating baseball injuries, especially when details are hard to come by. After his first start of 2016, he was placed on the disabled list with “shoulder soreness,” and the team thought he’d be back on the field in the minimum 15 days.
Over time, “soreness” became “inflammation,” and he has had several setbacks during his rehab. At one point it was hoped he would return to pitch a few innings at the end of September, but that’s becoming unlikely. An injury that has lingered this long could lead to offseason surgery, and shoulder surgery can have a long recovery period. He might be fine in 2017, but he’s an elevated risk in any case.
Potential impact: Elevated risk, reduced playing time, reduced effectiveness.
• Trevor Story of the Colorado Rockies tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb at the beginning of August. The typical recovery time is six to eight weeks, and patients normally return to full strength in about three months. Story should be at full strength by next spring.
Potential impact: Minimal.
American League
• The Cleveland Indians’ Michael Brantley had surgery in November 2015 to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. After 11 games in 2016, he developed biceps tendinitis in the same shoulder and had surgery in August to fix it. The surgery has a four-month recovery time, so he should be ready by spring training. However, the scant data on recovery from this procedure suggests a high rate of recurrence of pain and need for additional procedures. Brantley should be treated as very high risk for the foreseeable future.
Potential impact: Very high risk, reduced playing time, reduced effectiveness.
• Garrett Richards of the Los Angeles Angels has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, for which the usual treatment is Tommy John surgery. Instead, Richards has opted for a stem cell injection and rehab. This is a relatively untested treatment, especially among professional athletes, with uncertain outcomes. As a result, his risk is highly elevated because of the possibility he will need Tommy John surgery in the future.
Potential impact: Very high risk, reduced playing time, reduced effectiveness.
• Lance McCullers’ 2016 season was delayed by shoulder soreness, and the end came prematurely (in August) because of a sprained elbow. The elbow injury wasn’t considered serious, but as of mid-September the Houston Astros right-hander still was was unable to throw off a mound.
While he’ll have time to recover for 2017, these injuries to different parts of the arm raise his risk of completing a full season in the majors.
Potential impact: Elevated risk, reduced playing time.
• Mike Moustakas of the Kansas City Royals tore the ACL in his right knee in May and had surgery at the beginning of June. The typical recovery time is four to six months, which means he should be ready for the start of the 2017 season. As with Schwarber, there might be lingering effects. But Moustakas’ injury was much less serious, so any effects should be minimal.
Potential impact: Reduced playing time in early 2017.