Spring lineups offer up clues for regular season
With spring training games underway, one of the most interesting activities for fantasy owners is scouring box scores to see how managers are arranging their batting orders.
This year we have a bit of a twist with a number of starters leaving their major league teams for the World Baseball Classic, so fantasy owners might not see players in their opening-day lineup spots until late in the spring.
Let’s run down each American League team’s most likely lineup construction and touch on some of the finer points fantasy owners should know about them.
Next week: NL teams.
Baltimore Orioles
CF Adam Jones
RF Seth Smith
3B Manny Machado
1B Chris Davis
DH Mark Trumbo
2B Jonathan Schoop
C Welington Castillo
SS J.J. Hardy
LF Hyun Soo Kim
Machado is a slam-dunk first-rounder in fantasy drafts, especially after adding shortstop eligibility. Yes, his zero stolen bases hurt fantasy owners, but he was so good otherwise (.294, 37 homers, 96 RBI), it didn’t matter. Jones dealt with a nagging side injury early last season, and his numbers took a hit. Look for his .265 average to rebound, but he’ll have fewer RBI if he spends most of his time in the leadoff spot.
Boston Red Sox
2B Dustin Pedroia
LF Andrew Benintendi
SS Xander Bogaerts
RF Mookie Betts
DH Hanley Ramirez
CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Mitch Moreland
C Sandy Leon
Betts will be one of the first players drafted after his huge breakout (.318, 31 HRs, 113 RBI, 26 steals). He does everything well and is 24. Benintendi hit .295 in 105 at-bats as a 21-year-old, so there’s plenty of potential.
Bogaerts (21 homers) might not be in the elite tier of shortstops, but he’s very close. Like Betts, he benefited from hitting in front of retired DH David Ortiz, so look for their sky-high run totals to decline at least somewhat. Ramirez had a huge bounce-back season in 2016, hitting .286 with 30 homers and 111 RBI. DH’ing should help reduce his injury risk.
Chicago White Sox
CF Charlie Tilson
SS Tim Anderson
1B Jose Abreu
LF Melky Cabrera
3B Todd Frazier
RF Avisail Garcia
DH Rymer Liriano
2B Tyler Saladino
C Geovany Soto
Anderson took over the starting job midway through last season and hit .283 with surprising pop. He was a speed-first guy in the minors but swiped only 10 bases in 99 games with the White Sox. Look for him to run more in his first full major league season.
Abreu is the team’s best overall hitter with three consecutive 100-RBI seasons. But his home run totals have gone from 36 to 30 to 25. Frazier had 40 homers and 98 RBI, but a .225 average limited his fantasy upside. Keep an eye on the strain to his side this spring.
Who is the DH is anybody’s guess, but top prospect Yoan Moncada, who was acquired from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade, will probably start the season in the minors -- although that could be a little less certain with the White Sox releasing veteran Brett Lawrie two weeks into camp.
Cleveland Indians
1B Carlos Santana
2B Jason Kipnis
SS Francisco Lindor
DH Edwin Encarnacion
LF Michael Brantley
3B Jose Ramirez
RF Lonnie Chisenhall
C Yan Gomes
CF Tyler Naquin
There were skeptics who thought Lindor, who turned 23 in the offseason, couldn’t duplicate the offensive numbers he put up in little over half a season as a rookie. But he was up to the challenge, hitting .301 with 99 runs, 15 homers and 19 steals.
Ramirez was a breakout multiposition star (.312 average, 84 runs and 22 steals). He’s an everyday starter at third — and an elite contact rate says he should be able to repeat.
Brantley, 29, missed nearly the entire 2016 season with shoulder problems, which aren’t completely resolved. With the addition of free agent slugger Encarnacion, a good offense could be great if Brantley is healthy.
Detroit Tigers
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Nick Castellanos
1B Miguel Cabrera
RF J.D. Martinez
DH Victor Martinez
LF Justin Upton
C James McCann
CF Mikie Mahtook
SS Jose Iglesias
An intriguing possibility in the No. 2 spot is Castellanos, who had a huge first half (.302, 17 HRs, 51 RBI) before missing most of August and September with a broken left hand. Injuries are always a possibility with a veteran lineup such as this one. Kinsler, Cabrera, Upton and J.D. Martinez are all between 29 and 34 — and Victor Martinez is 38.
Mahtook has an early lead in camp for the center-field job with Tyler Collins and JaCoby Jones also in the mix.
Houston Astros
CF George Springer
3B Alex Bregman
2B Jose Altuve
SS Carlos Correa
DH Carlos Beltran
C Brian McCann
1B Yulieski Gurriel
RF Josh Reddick
LF Norichika Aoki
Altuve added power to his repertoire last season and is one of the game’s few true five-category stars. A top-three overall pick.
Correa put up solid stats (.274, 20 homers, 96 RBI, 13 steals), but they somehow came as a disappointment after his incredible rookie season. Fantasy owners are banking on a rebound in home run/fly ball rate, which would get him back into elite territory.
Bregman shook off a 2-for-38 start to his MLB career and ended up hitting .264 with eight homers and 34 RBI in 201 at-bats. He’ll play every day at third while Gurriel moves to first.
Kansas City Royals
LF Alex Gordon
CF Lorenzo Cain
1B Eric Hosmer
C Salvador Perez
3B Mike Moustakas
RF Jorge Soler
DH Brandon Moss
SS Alcides Escobar
2B Whit Merrifield
Back-to-back seasons of .293 and .292 on-base percentages from Escobar might force manager Ned Yost to rethink putting him at the top of the order. Don’t read this as an opening-day lineup, but more of a strong suggestion.
Hosmer had career highs in home runs (25) and RBI (104), but his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging all declined from the season before.
Moss won’t hit for a very high average but had 25 home runs and slugged .525 against right-handed pitchers last season with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Los Angeles Angels
3B Yunel Escobar
RF Kole Calhoun
CF Mike Trout
DH Albert Pujols
1B C.J. Cron
LF Cameron Maybin
2B Danny Espinosa
SS Andrelton Simmons
C Martin Maldonado
Now a two-time AL MVP, Trout is back atop the fantasy rankings after hitting 29 homers, scoring 123 runs and driving in 100 runs at age 24. He’ll have a little more help around him as Maybin and Espinosa give the offense an upgrade at their positions.
Calhoun gets a boost from hitting in front of Trout and behind the excellent on-base skills of Escobar. Pujols, questionable for opening day after a foot injury, is no longer the most feared hitter in the game, but he makes pitchers pay for mistakes. Luis Valbuena could be important if Pujols misses time.
Minnesota Twins
CF Byron Buxton
1B Joe Mauer
2B Brian Dozier
3B Miguel Sano
RF Max Kepler
DH Kennys Vargas
LF Eddie Rosario
C Jason Castro
SS Jorge Polanco
Dozier set an American League record for home runs by a second baseman with 42, hitting 23 of those after Aug. 1. Fantasy owners have been waiting for Buxton to start showing some of his immense potential, almost to the point of writing him off as a bust ... at age 23. Don’t fall into that trap. He retooled his swing after being sent to the minors and finished with a .287/.357/.653 line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with nine homers in 101 September at-bats. If he earns the leadoff role, watch out.
The outfield experiment for Sano has mercifully ended with Trevor Plouffe no longer around. Sano’s batting average dipped to .236, and he lost 135 points of OPS from the season before (.916 to .781). Still, he has a ton of raw power that will play in any ballpark. And he’s 23.
New York Yankees
LF Brett Gardner
CF Jacoby Ellsbury
C Gary Sanchez
DH Matt Holliday
SS Didi Gregorius
2B Starlin Castro
1B Greg Bird
3B Chase Headley
RF Aaron Judge
Sanchez hit 20 home runs after he was called up from the minors in early August. But fantasy owners should be wary of expecting that kind of power projected over a full season. Those home runs came with a 40% home run to fly ball rate, something that’s extremely unlikely to repeat.
Bird returns after missing last season with a shoulder injury. But he was the 2015 version of Sanchez, hitting 11 homers in 157 at-bats. He’ll likely share time with Chris Carter, who tied for the National League home run title last year with 41 but was released by the Milwaukee Brewers.
Holliday is coming off two injury-plagued seasons in St. Louis, but the power he lost in 2015 returned last year (20 homers). Playing DH should make him less susceptible to injuries.
Oakland Athletics
CF Rajai Davis
C Stephen Vogt
DH Ryon Healy
LF Khris Davis
RF Matt Joyce
SS Marcus Semien
3B Trevor Plouffe
1B Yonder Alonso
2B Jed Lowrie
Rajai Davis surprisingly got a full season’s worth of playing time in Cleveland and ended up leading the AL with 43 stolen bases. He inherits the center-field job and will likely lead off, despite a .306 on-base percentage.
Healy, 25, has hit wherever he’s been in the minors, and he continued to rake with a .305/.337/.524 line and 13 homers in the second half of the big-league season. Adding first-base eligibility only adds to value as a late-round sleeper.
Seattle Mariners
LF Jarrod Dyson
SS Jean Segura
2B Robinson Cano
DH Nelson Cruz
3B Kyle Seager
1B Dan Vogelbach
RF Mitch Haniger
C Mike Zunino
CF Leonys Martin
Segura (33 steals last season) and Dyson (30 steals) add elite speed to the top of the lineup, while Vogelbach and Haniger have shown intriguing power in the minors. Cano is a model of consistency with at least 156 games played in each of the last 10 seasons. Last season was his best in runs (107) and home runs (39). At 34, he’s at the top of his game.
Over the last three seasons, no one has hit more home runs than Cruz’s 127. Despite being 36, there are no hints of a decline in his skill set, so pencil in another 40 homers and 100 RBI. Cruz kept his outfield eligibility intact by playing 48 games in right field.
Tampa Bay Rays
CF Kevin Kiermaier
2B Brad Miller
3B Evan Longoria
DH Corey Dickerson
SS Matt Duffy
LF Colby Rasmus
RF Steven Souza
1B Logan Morrison
C Curt Casali
Despite being in the bottom quarter of MLB teams in scoring, the Rays hit 216 home runs last season -- more than the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox or Colorado Rockies -- but they also struck out more than any other AL team.
A Gold Glover in center, Kiermaier saw his offensive production curtailed by a wrist injury. He was an impressive 21-for-24 in stolen-base attempts. A full, healthy season could make him an interesting breakout candidate.
Miller was one of last season’s unlikely 30-homer hitters as he moved from shortstop to first base when Morrison was injured. With Morrison returning and Duffy now at short, Miller will add in-season fantasy eligibility at second base.
The Rays took a chance on All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos with a two-year deal. He’s a nice draft-day stash in leagues with an unlimited disabled list. He might not be ready to play until July as he recovers from a knee injury.
Texas Rangers
CF Carlos Gomez
DH Shin-Soo Choo
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Mike Napoli
2B Rougned Odor
C Jonathan Lucroy
RF Nomar Mazara
SS Elvis Andrus
LF Jurickson Profar
Gomez enjoyed a resurgence after the Rangers picked him up on waivers in August, hitting .284/.362/.543 in 130 plate appearances. Those numbers are comparable to when he was at his peak in 2013-14 with Milwaukee. Odor doubled his home run output (33) and posted a career-best .271 average, despite drawing just 19 walks.
Lucroy came over at the trade deadline to fill a gaping hole behind the plate and delivered a .539 slugging percentage (11 homers) in 152 at-bats. He is the AL’s top fantasy catcher and, at 30, is in the prime of his career. Profar will qualify only at third base on draft day. He’ll add outfield as he platoons with Ryan Rua in left. He could also see time in the infield if anyone gets hurt.
Toronto Blue Jays
2B Devon Travis
RF Jose Bautista
3B Josh Donaldson
DH Kendrys Morales
SS Troy Tulowitzki
C Russell Martin
1B Justin Smoak
CF Kevin Pillar
LF Melvin Upton Jr.
Travis has had issues with injuries, but in parts of two major league seasons, he sports a .301 career average and .342 OBP. If he plays a full season and hits leadoff, as expected, Travis would be a virtual lock for 90-100 runs.
Keep an eye on Donaldson’s calf strain. He’s the key to the offense having averaged 39 homers, 111 RBI, 122 runs and a .387 OBP in his two seasons with Toronto. Upton struggled after arriving in Toronto at last year’s trade deadline (.196 in 57 games), but he still hit 20 homers and stole 27 bases over the full season. He should beat out Ezequiel Carrera and youngster Dalton Pompey for the most playing time in left.