Full-season's worth of stats reveal the true All-Stars
The players who deserve to be recognized as All-Stars and the players who actually represent their leagues at the Midsummer Classic aren’t always one and the same.
Of course, that’s one of the reasons we love baseball. There’s always plenty of room for debate on just about any subject.
As fantasy owners, it all comes down to the numbers. Since the first three months of this season don’t quite give us a large enough statistical sample, we prefer to cast our votes for the players who have proven themselves over a full season’s worth of games.
So with the help of BaseballHQ.com, let’s look at the best players at each position over the second half of last season and the first half of this one — from July 1, 2016, to June 30, 2017 — to determine which ones truly deserve to be called All-Stars. (Our picks for American and National League starters are in bold. Players eligible at multiple positions are listed at the one they played more frequently.)
CATCHER
Even at 30, Buster Posey is still the gold standard behind the plate. He’s one of three catchers to post an average above .300 over the past full season’s worth of games. Playing half of his games at spacious AT&T Park takes its toll on Posey’s power numbers — his 15 home runs kept him out of the top 10 — but it hasn’t prevented him from outpacing his NL colleagues in RBI and runs.
In the AL, it’s Gary Sanchez in a runaway. And that’s despite him not being called up last year until August and missing nearly a month with a biceps injury this April.
There might have been skeptics on draft day who didn’t believe he could maintain his crazy home run pace from the final two months of 2016. But he has put those doubts to rest. Sanchez’s production in essentially four months of action has been far greater than what any other AL catcher has done in six months.
FIRST BASE
There are so many great candidates at first base, especially with several of 2017’s breakouts creating incredible depth at the position. With his rare combination of elite run production and basestealing excellence, Paul Goldschmidt has been the NL’s top-rated fantasy player regardless of position this season. No one has scored more runs over the past full season than Goldschmidt’s 131, and he’s fifth overall with 108 RBI.
Goldschmidt just barely edges out Joey Votto, who had a dominant second half of 2016 (.397, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 57 runs) and has hit for even more power this season. Last year’s pick, Anthony Rizzo, is almost an afterthought despite 31 homers, 101 RBI and 96 runs over the past full season.
It’s a little tougher to find similarly qualified candidates in the AL, where Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion have dominated the past several years. Perhaps the most surprising stat is Albert Pujols with more RBI (121) than any first baseman in either league.
Encarnacion matched Votto’s position-high 38 homers, but for overall performance, Jose Abreu gets the nod. He leads AL first basemen with a .310 average to go with 28 homers, 104 RBI and 86 runs.
SECOND BASE
The power at second base seems concentrated in the AL, but Daniel Murphy is the NL’s clear leader in fantasy value. It helps to have the position’s highest batting average (.338) and the most RBI (106).
Though Murphy doesn’t have the speed of the position’s elite basestealers, he’s second in the league in runs with 94 and second in homers with 25.
Anything Brian Dozier did after last year’s second-half power explosion would have to qualify as a letdown, but remember … he had a poor first half a year ago, so his numbers over the past full season look a lot like 2016’s. Dozier and Robinson Cano are neck and neck in fantasy value with Cano’s .289 average balanced out by Dozier’s 22 stolen bases.
Still, there’s no denying Jose Altuve’s greatness in every category. Though he can’t touch Dozier’s 42 homers, Altuve is right there in RBI (90) and runs (100). And he leads the league in batting average (.324) and steals (23).
SHORTSTOP
Trea Turner won’t be at the All-Star Game in Miami because of a broken wrist, but his statistical dominance since he was promoted for good last July says he not only should be there, but he should be starting for the NL.
Turner has the batting average (a league-leading .308) and twice as many stolen bases (68) as any other shortstop over the past full season. Plus, he’s one of only three with more than 100 runs. Corey Seager is a worthy runner-up, but Turner is the overwhelming choice for fantasy owners.
In the AL, Carlos Correa leads all shortstops in both home runs (23) and RBI (100). Throw in a .294 average and 92 runs, and he gets the nod over Jean Segura, Elvis Andrus and (surprisingly) Andrelton Simmons.
Over the past year, Simmons quietly has transformed from a late-round fantasy draft pick to someone worth starting, even in mixed leagues.
He had that one outlier season in 2013 when he hit 17 home runs in Atlanta, but with nine already in 2017 and a career-high 13 stolen bases, Simmons — at age 27 — has been a secret weapon for his fantasy owners.
THIRD BASE
No question Nolan Arenado has put up better numbers than any other third baseman. Perhaps playing his home games at Coors Field helps, but when you have the most homers (35), RBI (a major league-leading 129) and runs (110) at your position … there’s not much room for argument.
Final vote candidates Kris Bryant and Anthony Rendon are worthy runners-up.
In the AL, things are considerably more muddled. Jose Ramirez leads the way in batting average (.322), stolen bases (21) and runs (99) but doesn’t have the power typically associated with the position.
Manny Machado has the edge in homers and Evan Longoria is tops in RBI, but Ramirez’s 81 RBI get him close enough to earn the unexpected nod.
OUTFIELD
Who has been the best outfielder in either league over the past full season? There’s a good case for Charlie Blackmon. He leads everyone at the position in batting average (.327) and runs (127). But what’s even more surprising is that he’s among the leaders in home runs (34) and RBI (97) as well. Blackmon isn’t running as much as he has in the past, but that’s a small price to pay for his overall excellence.
Bryce Harper’s batting average tanked in the second half of 2016, but his on-base percentage remained high. He’s still a standout in runs (98), and his excellent home run and RBI production in 2017 put him among the NL’s top three. Billy Hamilton’s dominance in stolen bases (72), plus his top-20 finish in runs (85) get him the third spot.
In the AL, Mike Trout makes the cut despite being out since May 28 with a thumb injury. He leads the league with a .318 average, while still making the leaderboard with 28 homers, 83 RBI, 29 steals and 103 runs.
George Springer is a three-category stud and the AL’s version of Blackmon with 36 home runs, 86 RBI and 124 runs out of the leadoff spot.
The final spot goes to Mookie Betts, who’s the only outfielder in either league to rank among the top 15 outfielders in all five of the traditional fantasy categories.
PITCHER
Health is perhaps the most important quality for pitchers, and Max Scherzer has been the standard-bearer. He has made at least 31 starts in each of the past eight seasons and is well on his way to do it again in 2017.
Scherzer is the only starting pitcher in either league with 20 wins over the past calendar year. He also has more strikeouts (287), and among NL pitchers trails only Clayton Kershaw in ERA and WHIP. The third spot goes to Carlos Martinez, who ranks third in the league in whiffs (222) to go with 15 wins and a 3.05 ERA.
In the AL, Corey Kluber ranks in the top 15 in all four starting pitcher categories — tying for the league lead with 17 wins and posting a stellar 2.88 ERA with 222 strikeouts. No one else is among the leaders in more than two other categories. Chris Sale’s 279 strikeouts and 1.00 WHIP carry him to a spot. The final one goes to Yu Darvish with his 228 K's and 1.10 WHIP.
The closer spots go to this season’s most dominant relievers, Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. Jansen leads all closers with 42 saves to go with a 1.54 ERA, while Kimbrel has notched 38 saves with a 2.34 ERA.
OVERALL HITTING
Statistics compiled by Matt Cederholm, BaseballHQ.com