These closers-in-waiting are worth a speculative pickup

Finding cheap saves in the free agent pool won’t guarantee you a championship, but it sure helps. With the demise of the solid, reliable closer over the last 20 years or so, fishing in the free agent pool is often the only way to go to compete in the saves category. Here, we will try to identify a group of relievers who aren’t the “capital-C” closer but who are likely to get the opportunity to take over at some point.

These pitchers might fall into saves in one of three ways: trade, injury or an incumbent’s ineffectiveness. In particular, with the July 31 trade deadline around the corner, there could be a number of pitchers who inherit the job from the departing closer.

Finally, in our discussion of these potential closers, we’ll try to keep the speculation to a minimum. When discussing trades, we’ll focus on bullpens where the incumbent is widely expected to be traded or where a trade is an obvious outcome.

American League

Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels: The Angels are sort-of contenders, but they have several good (albeit unhealthy) arms in the bullpen. Whether buying or selling, they are likely to deal a reliever. The most obvious choice is Bud Norris, who is a free agent at the end of the year and is also having his best season ever at 32.

Bedrosian has seen action in much higher-leverage situations than Norris has, so if Norris turns into a pumpkin at some point (even for a short while) Bedrosian would likely take over. If he’s healthy.

Confidence: Moderately high

Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers: Closer Justin Wilson has been mentioned in a couple of different trade rumors. Plus, his contract is up at the end of the year, so there’s a strong chance he will be traded.

Bruce Rondon has the future closer label, but while his Class AAA ERA was respectable, he’s still walking hitters at a brutal pace. Greene doesn’t have the pedigree (and issues a fair amount of walks himself), but he’s been effective for most of the year and he could be a strong consideration for the closer’s role.

Confidence: Moderate

Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles: While Zach Britton hasn’t formally reclaimed his closer role, it’s assumed he will soon. That would leave Brach as the primary setup man. However, Britton wasn’t pitching all that well even before the injury. While his 1.00 ERA prior to going on the DL looked good, his 7.0 K/9 and 1.8 K/BB showed a decline in skills from 2016. His skills could have been affected by his injury the entire season, but they haven’t been any better since he returned. If other owners are discounting Brach because Britton is back, he would be worth acquiring.

Confidence: Moderate

Other AL considerations: Joakim Soria (Kansas City), ­Keone Kela (Texas).

National League

Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks: Closer Fernando Rodney has been very lucky this year, as he’s only notched a 1.9 K/BB. However, despite his mediocre skills and his 5.58 ERA, he’s blown only five saves. Thus far in 2017, Rodney has had only one really good month (June), and he fell apart in the second half of 2016; at age 40, a repeat blowout is certainly possible.

Meanwhile, Bradley has excelled, with a 1.50 ERA and a 6.3 K/BB, and he has been used in high-leverage situations. It’s only a matter of time before Rodney implodes — if that happens sooner rather than later, Bradley is the obvious choice to replace him.

Confidence: Moderately high

Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves: Closer Jim Johnson has seven blown saves and the Braves have no good reason to hold on to him, even though his skills have been very good.

Vizcaino has had the closer role in the past, for brief periods, and has the skills to do the job. The big question is health, which has never been his strong suit. His injury (strained index finger) is a minor one that could be resolved by the time you read this, but he will obviously need to stay healthy to have value.

Confidence: Moderately high

David Phelps, Miami Marlins: Both Phelps and closer A.J. Ramos have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining, so there isn’t an urgency to deal either one. However, Ramos has the closer pedigree, and that’s going to result in a higher salary in arbitration. It also enhances his trade value.

Although the Marlins could certainly trade them both (and have been rumored to be doing so), the purported heir to the closer role, Kyle Barraclough, is the type of pitcher who gives managers indigestion and a 6.2 BB/9 is his biggest weakness. Also, Barraclough has rarely been used in high-leverage situations this season.

That leaves Phelps as the most likely one to take over for Ramos, even though he bears a great deal of trade risk himself.

Confidence: Shaky

Phil Maton, San Diego Padres: The Padres will almost certainly trade setup man Brad Hand, but whether they deal closer Brandon Maurer is a more difficult question. His ugly ERA has been mainly a product of bad luck, as he has a sparkling 5.3 K/BB, but many potential trade partners might not look at it that way. Maurer is also under team control for two more years after this one, though the Padres have never been shy about trading relievers if they can get good value.

With Matt Capps still trying to get back into form after Tommy John elbow ligament surgery, Maton is the team’s closer-in-waiting, with a career 13.7 K/9 in the minor leagues. If Maurer is dealt, Maton has the stuff to take over.

Confidence; Moderate

Other NL considerations: Jose Ramirez (Atlanta), Paul Sewald/Jerry Blevins (New York Mets), Trevor Rosenthal (St. Louis).