Question marks abound as 2018 fantasy baseball drafts draw near
Any other year, fantasy baseball draft preparations would already be in full swing as players first report to spring camps.
But this season, things are different. The top free agents have taken much longer than usual to find new homes — and fantasy owners are approaching their drafts with even more uncertainty than usual.
Fantasy rankings: Top 200 overall for 2018
We can’t wait until the free agent freeze-out ends before we start digging into the season. There are plenty of things we do know. And plenty of questions we should start asking.
Impact of Ohtani
There is no bigger story entering the 2018 season than the arrival of a mysterious player who can both pitch and hit at an elite level.
Major League Baseball hasn’t seen anything like Shohei Ohtani since perhaps when a kid nicknamed "The Bambino" arrived a little more than a century ago. And as Babe Ruth once changed the game of baseball, Ohtani is already pushing the limits of fantasy baseball.
He’ll take the mound every fifth or sixth day for the Los Angeles Angels — and in between he’ll be in the lineup as the designated hitter. In this age of specialization, Ohtani gives the Angels two players in one roster spot.
Commissioner services have never had to account for a player compiling both pitching and hitting statistics. One idea is to have two separate players: Ohtani the pitcher … and Ohtani the hitter. It’s a simple technical solution, but it doesn’t give a fantasy owner any of Ohtani’s two-way benefits.
A better way to handle things is to have him eligible at both pitcher and utility, but not both at the same time. (That’s how we’ll be doing it in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality.) Ohtani will almost certainly be more valuable as a pitcher, but this at least gives his owners the flexibility to use him as a hitter if needed. (May 8-9 at Colorado, perhaps?)
Starters losing influence?
Over the past decade or so, we’ve seen a significant number of innings previously thrown by starting pitchers transferred to the bullpen. Managers are more aware of how much less effective starters are in their third time through the batting order. So only a select few pitchers are even getting the opportunity to go deep into games.
Last season, Chris Sale led the majors with 214 1/3 innings, the lowest total for a non-strike season in baseball history.
Additionally, 58 pitchers qualified for the ERA title (one inning per team game) — another all-time low. Fantasy owners used to be able to count on several starters to give them at least 200 innings. That’s no longer the case as teams are using their bullpens (and the disabled list) to ease the burden on starters’ arms.
The Angels, to match Ohtani’s schedule in Japan, are considering going to a six-man starting rotation.
As a result, pitching expectations might need to be lowered. Yes, there won’t be any change in the total number of wins in a season, but those wins are less likely to go to a starter.
No pitcher had 19 or more wins in 2017 — the first time that’s happened in a non-strike season.
On the other hand, the value of top-tier starters might be even higher than ever because of the advantage they give their fantasy owners over a replacement-level starter.
Sale led the majors with 308 strikeouts, more than twice as many as No. 40 (a mid-tier No. 3 in a 15-team mixed league) Jhoulys Chacin. Look for this year’s drafts to have an early run on the top 20 or so starters, with owners waiting until much later to fill out their staffs.
High-skilled middle relievers will also have more value, especially in AL- or NL-only Roto formats, because of their superior ratios and increased opportunities for wins.
Environmental factors in play?
As we’re seeing with the tepid free agent market, MLB teams are much less willing to give veteran players long-term contracts due to the likelihood of disaster in the final years. Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols are among the most prominent examples.
The door is now open for younger players to contribute sooner and to a greater degree. We’re seeing evidence that players are peaking earlier in their careers, so there’s more incentive for MLB teams to extract value from a player’s controllable years on the front end of the six-year window, rather than on the back end.
Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins and Rafael Devers were among the youngsters who were called up and contributed more than expected last season. Don’t be surprised if this year’s talented prospects have immediate success when they get the call to the majors.
And finally, what about the actual environment?
The Arizona Diamondbacks are moving forward on plans to become the second MLB team to store their game balls in a humidor. The dry desert air, even with the roof closed, makes the ball fly further. The Diamondbacks have always enjoyed that offensive boost at home -- and last season was no different. Chase Field ranked third in the majors in promoting scoring (20% above average) and fourth in home runs (+22%) in 2017.
However, the humidor could dramatically reduce those effects. Physics professor Alan Nathan has estimated a softer, denser baseball would lead to a 25% to 50% reduction in home runs. For fantasy owners, that kind of an impact could be enough to alter draft strategy.
Paul Goldschmidt hit 20 homers at Chase last season. Jake Lamb had 16. Their fantasy values would take a hit if the conditions are that different.
Conversely, Diamondbacks pitchers who struggled at home, such as left-hander Robbie Ray, could be worth targeting earlier. Ray allowed 13 homers and had a 4.08 ERA in his own park last year, but gave up 10 home runs (in 12 more innings) and had a 1.86 ERA on the road.
News of the humidor is only starting to be reflected in players' current average draft positions. Being aware of possible changes before they happen can give fantasy owners an extra edge.
Sometimes that extra edge can be all that's needed to win a championship.
Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner