Searching for worthy closers-in-waiting
Relief pitchers have tiny data sets early in the season. Relievers’ stats are volatile as they gather their mechanics and are used unevenly and on cold days. In addition, roles are often in flux as managers try to figure out who is reliable and who is inconsistent. In the bullpen, last year’s star might be this year’s clunker.
As a result, a few closers — even some established ones — will lose their roles at some point in 2018. Some changes will be because of injury, some because of trade, some because of ineffectiveness and some will just give way to another reliever who is better. This column looks at all those groups based on their tiny data sets from April but also is informed by projections based on historical data.
We start with five good bets to be closers by July 1. These are players who are stash-worthy if you have roster space:
1) A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves: Current closer Arodys Vizcaino has had shaky command in the early going, but so has left-handed Minter. Minter has had a top-notch strikeout rate in his professional career (112 whiffs in 84 1/3 career innings). That rate of 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) would put him among MLB’s top closers.
Minter will eclipse Vizcaino soon enough just by his K/9 rate. Think Billy Wagner and you are on the right track — which is very high praise indeed.
2) Drew Steckenrider, Miami Marlins: Brad Ziegler has been horrible in the early going (seven earned runs in 82/3 innings), and it seems just a matter of time until either Steckenrider or Kyle Barraclough replaces him.
Barraclough has been strong early with a massive 15.6 K/9, but his propensity to allow home runs makes Steckenrider’s skill set the more consistent one over the long run. Steckenrider had 14 strikeouts against three walks in his first 102/3 innings.
3) Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers: So far, Shane Greene has been fine, if just a tad hittable (nine hits allowed in 82/3 innings; the best closers allow far less). Jimenez has seemingly conquered the command issues he had in short stints with the Tigers last season and projects to take over eventually.
4) Addison Reed, Minnesota Twins: Fernando Rodney has made a living off some terrific first halves but often declines rapidly as the season progresses. So far in 2018, Rodney has allowed too many baserunners (1.80 WHIP), and the rest of the Twins bullpen has struggled, too — except Reed. The veteran is a quietly consistent performer (3.19 ERA; 1.15 WHIP for career) who is more than capable of closing and will likely take the role sooner rather than later.
5) Carl Edwards Jr., Chicago Cubs: The Cubs paid Brandon Morrow top dollar to close. And so far, so good. Morrow is solid when healthy, but health has eluded him most years. He’s not pitched 50 innings in any one season since 2013.
Combine that with Edwards’ vastly superior strikeout rate (20 strikeouts vs. four walks in 102/3 innings) and improving command, and the odds favor a midseason change as the Cubs make another run toward the playoffs.
Beyond these five are several other developing situations on the closer market:
Shaky jobs
Alex Colome of the Tampa Bay Rays is off to a horrendous start and could be replaced quickly if he cannot turn it around. In-house candidates are not great, but Sergio Romo looks to be the best bet in the current bullpen.
Greg Holland has not been good since signing with the St. Louis Cardinals, and Luke Gregerson has only just returned from injury. Bud Norris (18 strikeouts, two walks in 111/3 innings) has filled in nicely over Dominic Leone (11 strikeouts, no walks in eight innings) in the first couple of weeks, but this could be fluid over the next two months.
Keone Kela of the Texas Rangers has had command issues early, with four walks in 62/3 innings. If Kela’s problems continue, Chris Martin could get into the mix.
Injury issues
•Corey Knebel should return from a hamstring injury for the Milwaukee Brewers in late May and replace the committee currently ending games.
•Zach Britton is expected back for the Baltimore Orioles in early June to replace Brad Brach.
•Mark Melancon has already gone down for the San Francisco Giants, but he might find his way back by July to replace fill-in Hunter Strickland.
•Don’t get too comfortable with Washington Nationals closer Sean Doolittle. He has been piling up strikeouts (19 in 10 innings), but he has a checkered injury history. Ryan Madson would likely plug in if needed.
•Colorado Rockies closer Wade Davis has had terrific stuff and a history of results, but he has been on the shelf from time to time also. The Rockies have Adam Ottavino wrecking lineups (24 strikeouts, two walks in 122/3 innings) in the early going.
Trade candidates
Cincinnati Reds closer Raisel Iglesias is a luxury on a below-average team in the midst of a rebuild. If a midseason trade happens, a myriad of candidates would have a shot at replacing him, including Wandy Peralta, Jared Hughes and, if healthy, David Hernandez.
The Kansas City Royals’ Kelvin Herrera could also be moved in July. The next reliever in line is tough to project as this bullpen has been putrid in the early going. Look for the hot hand at the time — be it Justin Grimm, Burch Smith, Brandon Mauer or someone else.
Elite lefty closer Brad Hand of the San Diego Padres might also be on the move. Kirby Yates and Phil Maton are two to consider stashing on your reserve list just in case.
Best skills so far
Some of the best numbers in the bullpen (strikeouts, especially) don’t always come from the closers. Right-handed setup man Dan Otero lives a bit in Andrew Miller’s shadow for the Cleveland Indians, but he’s off to a hot start with eight strikeouts against one walk in 71/3 innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Tony Cingrani has been lights out early in 2018 (15 strikeouts, no walks in 81/3 innings) and was strong late in 2017 too.
The Brewers are using a committee to close during Knebel’s absence, but the skills maven is multiple-inning pitcher Josh Hader. Hader is wiping out opponents (29 strikeouts, four walks in 142/3 innings).
Chad Green is the main setup for Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees and has logged 16 strikeouts against one walk in 10 innings). Also in New York, Dellin Betances has been terrific with 15 strikeouts and three walks in 82/3 innings.
Whether just for saves or strikeouts, too, knowing your bullpens gets you one step ahead of your fantasy competition.
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