Fantasy baseball: 10 fast starters who could fade
With a little over two months in the books, we can seriously begin to evaluate in-season performances. Granted, the sample sizes we’ll be working with are still small, but that’s also kind of the point here.
These are players who have had unexpectedly good starts to their seasons, but in each case there are reasons to believe they’ll fall back the rest of the way. Their successes in a small sample so far might not hold up.
Hitters
Jonathan Villar of the Milwaukee Brewers has enjoyed a bounce-back season, with a .276 batting average, six home runs and nine stolen bases. While his stolen base attempts continue to decline, he’s doing enough elsewhere to earn $19 of value in mixed leagues. However, he’s been very lucky with his home run rate; even his paltry six homers is an inflated figure. (He’s hit more home runs than doubles.)
In addition, his 31% strikeout rate is horrible and his batting average is being supported by an unsustainable .384 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Combine that with a 6% walk rate, and all sources of his value are at risk.
Mitch Haniger of the Seattle Mariners is among the league leaders in home runs, but he’s been very fortunate in that department. His home run percentage has jumped by 1.5 percentage points, without an appreciable increase in slugging percentage or extra-base hits. (He’s another hitter with more home runs than doubles.).
Haniger was hot in April (9 HRs) and cold in May (1 HR). So far, June has brought another bout of homers, but all five of his extra-base hits this month have been home runs. Sure, his luck could continue for another three months, but that’s not something you want to bet on.
With Miguel Cabrera out for the season, John Hicks of the Detroit Tigers has been a popular free agent pickup. And why not? He is catcher-eligible in most leagues, should get a significant bump in playing time and sports a .288 batting average with six homers in 170 at-bats.
However, his batting average is 50-60 points higher than he deserves, with a .381 BABIP pushing it up. Hicks does hit the ball hard, but his strikeout rate isn’t compatible with a .300 average. He might provide you with some power, but he’s likely to be a batting average liability the rest of the way.
Perennial replacement player Gorkys Hernandez of the San Francisco Giants has gifted his owners with a .283 average and seven home runs, along with his usual smattering of stolen bases. That has been good for $14 of value in mixed leagues. However, it’s all smoke and mirrors. His .374 BABIP is driving his batting average, and his seven home runs have come with only three doubles. He caught fire for two weeks in May and has done little else otherwise. The ride is over.
Jean Segura of the Seattle Mariners has enjoyed a resurgence in speed, but his .340 average is being driven by a .376 BABIP, and that’s not likely to last. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he lost 40-50 points in batting average the rest of the way, more in line with his .300 mark in 2017. While that’s still very good, Segura’s value is currently at its peak.
So far, Jorge Alfaro of the Philadelphia Phillies has looked like a smart endgame catcher pickup, generating $5 in mixed-league value. Neither his .241 batting average nor his five home runs stand out as spectacular, but they are both much better than he deserves. His .385 BABIP can’t be sustained; combined with his nearly 40% strikeout rate, he should be struggling to hit .200 at this point. That moves him from a nice No. 2 catcher to a batting average anchor.
Pitchers
Jon Lester of the Chicago Cubs has enjoyed a resurgent season with a 2.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, when you dig into the numbers, this is his worst season in quite a while. The veteran left-hander’s strikeout rate has fallen to 7.5 K/9, even as major league strikeout rates are at an all-time high. That’s left him with a run-of-the-mill 2.5 strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio. He’s survived so far with a low BABIP and by stranding runners at an unsustainable rate. Given his skills, Lester’s ERA should be north of the 4.00 mark.
Reynaldo Lopez of the Chicago White Sox has a tidy 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. While his two wins have held his value down some, he certainly looks like a guy who could help the rest of the way. Don’t be deceived.
Despite averaging 95 MPH, he rarely misses bats, evidenced by his 6.2 K/9 rate (strikeouts per nine innings). He walks a fair share as well, leaving him with a dreadful 1.7 K/BB. He’s a young guy who could get better, but there’s zero evidence of that happening now.
Add Michael Wacha of the St. Louis Cardinals to the list of pitchers whose surface stats are unsupported by underlying skills. His 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are pretty enticing, as are his eight wins, but they’re not likely to continue.
Wacha’s 7.7 K/9 and 2.0 K/BB are both mediocre at best; he deserves an ERA almost a run higher. He’s been awful in his last two starts (9.31 ERA), so perhaps you’ve already jumped ship. It’s not too late.
Sean Manaea of the Oakland Athletics had a 1.03 ERA in his first six starts. In the rest of his 23 starts since July 1, 2017, he sports a 5.76 ERA. This is in keeping with his short history of strong months interspersed with disasters. What will you get from him the rest of the way? It’s a gamble, but his disasters (9.17 ERA in August 2017, 7.18 ERA in May 2018) are enough to justify staying away.
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