Opinion: Pitchers shine brightest in fantasy tour of spring training
SARASOTA, Fla. – One of the most enjoyable things I get to do every year is spend a week at spring training, catching baseball games and taking notes. The opportunity to combine in-person observations with statistical information helps me feel more prepared going into the upcoming season.
So what stood out on this year’s fantasy tour of the Grapefruit League?
Change is good: In some respects, Aaron Nola’s 2019 season was a disappointment, especially after he emerged as a Cy Young contender the year before. He’s tweaking his pitch mix this spring to incorporate his changeup more often.
“I think (throwing) something other than just a fastball, curveball is important, especially for a starting pitcher,” Nola said. “It’s a pitch I’m working on still, trying to be consistent with it.”
In this game I saw, the Phillies right-hander struck out six batters in two innings – with a couple of them coming on the changeup. Nola credits being able to throw the change for strikes as one of the keys to his success two seasons ago.
Change is good, part 2: For two months last season, Detroit’s Matthew Boyd was one of the AL’s best pitchers. At the beginning of June, he had a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, while striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings.
Then he started giving up home runs in bunches – 32 of them in 112 2/3 innings – which led to a 5.67 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over his final 20 starts. Boyd’s home-run rate of 1.89 per nine innings was the highest in the majors among qualified starters.
Going up against Gerrit Cole and a lineup featuring many Yankees regulars, Boyd more than held his own. Making effective use of his revamped changeup, the lefty tossed three scoreless innings and struck out four.
If he can find a solution to his acute gopheritis (or the baseball doesn’t have as much juice as it did last season), Boyd’s value could take a huge leap forward.
Options in the outfield: Due to a shoulder injury, the Yankees’ Miguel Andujar served mostly as a designated hitter in 2019 – making him less valuable in fantasy drafts due to his lack of position eligibility. But with both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton unlikely to be ready for opening day, Andujar is seeing time in left field. He could qualify there fairly quickly, so consider him an intriguing sleeper.
Comeback trail: After a pair of sub-.200 seasons and a record-breaking hitless streak at the beginning of last year, Orioles first baseman Chris Davis considered retiring before ultimately deciding to “give myself a chance to right the ship.”
He added 25 pounds over the winter and instantly felt much more comfortable in the batter’s box, hitting three homers in his first four games. At 33, he’s no longer the slugger who led the majors in homers in 2013 and 2015. But power is valuable in today’s game and Davis will cost fantasy owners next to nothing.
The most interesting news out of Orioles camp came two days after I visited, when manager Brandon Hyde hinted that hard-throwing youngster Hunter Harvey could be in the mix for saves.
Braves’ new world: Battling for a spot in the Atlanta rotation, left-hander Sean Newcomb tossed three shutout innings, allowing only two hits and fanning three. In his next start, he blanked the Yankees over four innings to lower his spring ERA to 2.00.
With Cole Hamels out a month or more with shoulder issues, there’s also an opening for two-time AL Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez (2.08 ERA in 8 2/3 spring innings) to crack the rotation. Although I still have Hamels ahead of Newcomb and Hernandez in my rankings, it would be great to see King Felix make the most of a second chance.
The eye-opener for me in Braves camp was outfield prospect Cristian Pache, who went 3-for-3 and stole two bases. With 10 strikeouts and one walk this spring, he may need a few more than 26 games at the Class AAA level before his bat is as ready for the majors as his glove.
Lighting it up: The most impressive pitching performance I saw all spring was from Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow. The 6-8 right-hander looked dominant, pounding the strike zone and consistently hitting 97, 98 and 99 mph the scoreboard radar – which hadn’t been working to that point all spring.
“What’s the point of pitching if there’s no radar gun?” he joked before making an important point.
“It’s not like velo is really the most important thing. But in determining the effort I’m putting in and how it’s coming out of my hands, if it feels good and smooth and it’s up there, I’m like … hey, it’s good.”
Glasnow was limited to 60 ⅔ innings last season due to forearm issues. But when he was healthy, he was one of the best pitchers in the game. Although it’s foolish to project last year’s 1.78 ERA over a full season, Glasnow’s upside is tremendous. He could be a top-15 pitcher, with a Cy Young-caliber ceiling.
Yoshi and Bo: It’s always difficult to figure out how the Rays will distribute playing time, but there’s an interesting path to more of it for Yoshi Tsutsugo. Although he played primarily outfield in Japan last season and figured to slot as a platoon partner for Jose Martinez at DH, Tsutsugo (whose walk-up song is Phil Collins’ “Sussudio”) is playing some third base this spring.
The only time he touched the ball on defense was on a slow roller that the Jays’ Bo Bichette easily beat out in the first inning.
Speaking of Bichette, his speed is incredibly fun to watch. He stole second off Glasnow and later tripled into the right field corner. If the Jays turn him loose this season, he could lead the AL in steals.
Waiting for Sale: Nearing the end of his prescribed 10-day rest period, Red Sox ace Chris Sale is hoping the pain in his elbow doesn’t return when he tries to throw again. But there was a great deal of frustration in his words and his body language when he discussed the results of his recent MRI.
“It’s a gut punch. It’s a tough realization,” he said. "I don't think I've ever let anybody down this hard ... ever. That sucks."
Doctors say he has a flexor strain, which could mean Tommy John surgery if things don’t improve. Right now, it’s hard to see anything other than the worst-case scenario for the veteran lefty.
Drive by Tucker: The Astros’ most interesting position battle is in right field, where incumbent Josh Reddick hasn’t hit well this spring. Kyle Tucker started off hitless in his first 16 at-bats, but went 3-for-3 against the Red Sox with a homer and a double.
Even though Dusty Baker has a reputation for preferring veterans over youngsters, it sure looks like Tucker’s time has finally come.
The ball: Finally, I asked as many players as I could over the course of seven games in seven days about whether or not they could tell any difference in the baseball from last season.
The consensus is … it’s too early to tell anything. Most players were too focused on their own adjustments to think about outside factors. But after witnessing several impressive early pitching performances, I’m leaning toward the pendulum swinging back their way in 2020.
Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner