In a playoff chase? Here's how to master your fantasy football team from the midway point on
The halfway point of the NFL season is a proper stopping point to assess your fantasy team's position and its chances at a playoff position or championship while reflecting upon the soundness or craziness of our opinions.
There are effectively three scenarios team owners have landed by this time of the season: Hotly in title pursuit, in the hunt with work to do/injuries to address, or “see ya next season.”
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For those effectively eliminated, stay out of the way. The third-place owner doesn’t want you unloading primary assets like Tom Brady to a first-place team who has surprisingly landed there with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
There’s a special place in fantasy hell for the out-of-the-race owner making trades that alter the outcome of the title pursuit.
As for everyone else, it’s time to sharpen your focus on the roster, other lineups and the fantasy playoff schedule of weeks 15, 16 and/or 17.
If you own that league-leading team: Great, your team appears firmly in playoff position. But no roster is perfect. What’s your most glaring weakness? Be honest. Look to address it by leaning upon your depth.
You have a glut of running backs in a PPR league, for instance, and your third receiver is an iffy performer? Firm up your team by inspecting which squad is thin at running back and deep at receiver.
And don’t be afraid to make a slightly stronger offer than usual. You understand the importance of those valuable extra points the receiver upgrade will deliver.
Speaking as someone who won it all last year by less than 1 point, that new addition can provide all the difference.
It’s imperative here, too, to really hone in on your players’ schedules during the playoff weeks.
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For instance, Buffalo plays all three of those weeks in the Northeast quadrant – home to the Panthers in Week 15, at the Patriots in Week 16, home to the Falcons in Week 17.
Given Buffalo’s first-place standing now, it may sweep those three games.
But is a pass-muting snowstorm worth it if you can deal Bills quarterback Josh Allen in a package for Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who never ventures into the bad weather during the playoff weeks?
Here’s a rundown of those potential bad-weather games during those three weeks:
Week 15: Raiders at Browns, Panthers at Bills, Washington Football Team at Eagles, Titans at Steelers, Packers at Ravens, Cowboys at Giants, Bengals at Broncos, Vikings at Bears.
Week 16: Browns at Packers (Christmas game), Bills at Patriots, Giants at Eagles, Jaguars at Jets, Ravens at Bengals, Steelers at Chiefs.
Week 17: Giants at Bears, Jaguars at Patriots, Falcons at Bills, Chiefs at Bengals, Eagles at Washington Football Team, Rams at Ravens, Vikings at Packers, Browns at Steelers.
This weather topic generated a debate between myself and a rival owner, someone who contends football players, including protected quarterbacks, are mostly unaffected by bad weather.
We all have our stances, and it's fine if you want to toss aside weather concerns. But matchups against quality teams/defensive units are definitely worth contemplating.
The top five defenses based on yards-allowed and points-per-game at this moment are Buffalo, Arizona, Denver, New England and Carolina.
Again, let’s look at the fantasy playoff schedule:
Week 15: Panthers at Bills, Patriots at Colts, Cardinals at Lions, Bengals at Broncos
Week 16: Bills at Patriots, Buccaneers at Panthers, Colts at Cardinals, Broncos at Raiders
Week 17: Jaguars at Patriots, Panthers at Saints, Falcons at Bills, Cardinals at Cowboys, Broncos at Chargers.
As your league’s trade deadline nears, those in the comfortable playoff positions should still operate from a sell-high, buy-low philosophy. Typically, it’s those winning teams who’ve been blessed by a few unexpected performances.
You enjoyed them. Now don’t get greedy.
Here’s some buy-high offerings: James Conner, Arizona RB; Damien Harris, New England RB; DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona WR; Joe Mixon, Cincinnati RB; Matt Ryan, Atlanta QB.
Conner just produced a dream, three-touchdown game with 96 rushing yards and 77 receiving yards, but the Cardinals will shortly turn their offense back to quarterback Kyler Murray and Conner will return to being a lesser cog in the machine.
Harris embodies the clock-chewing mentality of Bill Belichick, but after two 100-yard games within the past month, Carolina targeted him and silenced him to 30 yards on 15 carries.
Hopkins is hurt right now, but his name value is profound. He’s routinely being blanketed by quality corners and hasn’t performed near the lofty 2020 standards that led some of us to fantasy trophies.
Mixon scored twice last week, but he’s only made it past 70 yards in three games, and the Bengals’ fate will more than likely rest on the arm of Joe Burrow.
Ryan has his team 4-4 and just beat the Saints. Strike now by throwing him in a deal as a sweetener by touting his steadiness, and move on.
As for buying low, the targets can include Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Lions RB D’Andre Swift, Browns WR Jarvis Landry, Washington TE Logan Thomas and Giants RB Saquon Barkley.
Productive but subdued, Diggs’ potential to erupt is there and as Allen’s reliance on his No. 1 receiver deepens toward the winter, Diggs’ games in the teens could swell greatly down the stretch.
A bad team’s surest offensive weapon, Swift has three games in the 20s, and the Lions need to lean on their pass-catching threat to have any hope of escaping their winless rut.
With Odell Beckham Jr. gone, others are thinking along these same lines. But Landry’s numbers have been so flat he remains a free agent in some leagues, so it’s doubtful any owner will put up too great of a fight to deny a solid trade offer.
Coming off injured reserve with a hamstring, Thomas might be a free agent. If he’s not, look at what he did to close last season. Quarterbacks love the tight-end security blanket, and Thomas will be there to amass dump-offs and points.
Barkley has been nothing but a thorn to owners who have invested so much in him the last two seasons.
Words of wisdom for those in the middle of the standings pack: capitalize upon the Barkley owner’s nagging disappointment by overpaying with a known commodity. Then enjoy a defining run of games that illustrates how special a talent he is.
Timing, as we’ve been told, is everything.
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