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Possible power breakouts for 2015


With the baseball season winding down, a lot of leagues have been wrapped up, leaving those out of contention with little to do but dream about next year. And why not? It's not too early to scout potential category leaders for next season.

This week, we'll focus on power. Specifically, we'll look at players whose power could take a step up in 2015. There are players who maybe don't appear to be great power bets on the surface — or at least have much greater potential than they've shown. It might be too late to acquire any of these guys right now, but there's a whole offseason waiting for you, and nothing keeps away the winter frost like fantasy baseball trade talk.

Third baseman-second baseman Luis Valbuena of the Chicago Cubs is a perfect example of a player whose power has gone below the radar. Valbuena had 11 home runs in 154 at-bats in the second half entering the week. His .447 slugging percentage is a big step up from previous seasons, and he has maintained it over the full season. Nearly half of his hits in the second half had gone for extra bases, further supporting his power outburst. We're not promising 30-plus home runs in 2015, but don't be shocked if he's among the top15-20 in that category.

Third baseman Nolan Arenado of the Colorado Rockies likely will finish with fewer than 20 home runs this season after missing more than a month with a broken finger. As such, other owners in your league might not notice his breakout season. His .505 slugging percentage put him ninth among major league hitters with more than 300 at-bats, so he was already among the power elite. Over a full season, he could approach 30 home runs, which could put him in the top 10-15 of all sluggers. Of all the names on this list, he's the most complete player, and he also plays in a hitter's paradise. He's clearly a guy worth chasing.

Outfielder Oswaldo Arcia of the Minnesota Twins had 10 homers in 143 at-bats in the second half, which projects to about 30 home runs over a full season, as well as a .497 slugging percentage. He's known for his bat speed and plate coverage, though his .234 career batting average shows his power is maturing faster than his batting eye. He has struck out in about a third of his at-bats, so he has work to do there. His .314 career minor league batting average shows that he can put the bat on the ball, and cutting down on his strikeouts would further boost his power potential. He's a risk, but the reward makes him worth an investment as a power source.

Outfielder George Springer of the Houston Astros being on this list is probably not a surprise. But his potential might be overlooked when taking in his season totals, as he has missed almost two months. His home run production to date amounts to a 35-plus-home run season playing full time, and his youth and .468 slugging percentage give us reason to think it will happen sooner rather than later. He's another young hitter who strikes out at a staggering rate, and any improvement there should add to his power numbers.

St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong is a guy you probably didn't expect to see on this list. Without a doubt, he's not in the same class as the other players on this list, but with 10 home runs in 200 at-bats since July 1, along with a .480 slugging percentage, he has earned our attention. Yes, he's probably been a bit fortunate with a few more balls going over the fence, but consider that 36% of his hits have gone for extra bases in the second half, which is not far off from undisputed slugger Jose Abreu's rate of 42%. While Wong isn't likely to hit much more than 20 home runs next season, he should hit more than most will expect. Add in his 30-stolen base potential, and you'd have a significant asset on your roster.

Corner infielder Mike Olt of the Chicago Cubs put up scary numbers while in the majors this year, and none was scarier than his .138 batting average on Sept. 5. This is what happens when you strike out in almost half of your at-bats. But when he puts the ball in play, good things happen, as nearly half of his hits have gone for home runs. Is there hope that he'll be a productive major leaguer next year? Yes, though we'd like to see more. Since being demoted to Class AAA, he has hit at a .302 clip in 106at-bats. Yes, it's the Pacific Coast League, but he also had the best batting average of his career. For 2015, the best we can probably hope for is Adam Dunn Light, but Dunn was a 40-home run hitter in his prime. Olt is high risk, but he has as much power as anyone on this list.

Outfielder Dayan Viciedo of the Chicago White Sox hit 25 home runs in 2012 and could come close to that figure in 2014, so he's perhaps not much of a surprise. However, he had hit 11 home runs in only 178 at-bats after July 1, which would be a 35-home run pace. He's also not the liability he used to be against right-handed pitchers, which could allow him to slot into a full-time role. In terms of power, he has a fairly high floor, while maintaining upside. Any breakout would be minor, but a guy with 30-plus-home run potential shouldn't be ignored.

Cleveland Indians infielder-outfielder Zach Walters is somewhat of a long shot, but he deserves your attention. His .183 batting average is bad news, yes, but it's partly because of a paltry .167 batting average on balls is play. His power is for real, though, as you can see in his .250-plus isolated slugging mark, which is a measure usually achieved only by elite sluggers. He struck out a lot in the minors and has struck out even more in the majors. It's a common theme here by now, but cutting down on strikeouts would help improve his power numbers, which are quite impressive. His season-long pace translates to 40-plus home runs; if he can get even two-thirds of the way there, it would be a bona fide breakout.

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