Fantasy Baseball 2025: One breakout player at every position
One of the hardest things to predict in sports is a breakout. Determining whether or not a player will take that next step into superstardom is near impossible. They could get hurt. They could regress. They could wind up never being anything close to what you predicted, but every now and again, someone comes along and predicts exactly who takes that leap.
If you follow along correctly, you could be in for some of the biggest steals in fantasy baseball. While there is no individual stat we can look at to determine who exactly has the best shot of turning into a star and returning tremendous value, there are hints and trails we can follow to make an educated guess.
Here is one player at every position with a sizable chance of turning into a valuable fantasy asset.
2025 Fantasy Baseball All-Breakout Team:
C: Ivan Herrera, STL
Despite 2025 likely being a rebuilding year in St. Louis, catcher Ivan Herrera is ready to take the next step and join the catcher elites. Herrera boasts remarkable plate discipline for a catcher, ranking in the upper half of Major League Baseball in both chase and strikeout rates (meaning he doesn't strike out more than usual).
While his power numbers are not great, that isn't something you should look for in a catcher. Given that you can grab Herrera outside the top-250 picks, you'll be grateful if he replicates his .301/.372/.428 triple-slash from a season ago. That's a very real possibility too, given that his expected batting average was still .293 and his expected slugging of .453 was actually higher than his end result. Furthermore, Willson Contreras was moved to first base full time this offseason, giving Herrera a clear path to play time, assuming he can beat out Pedro Pages, which shouldn't be an issue considering Herrera outclassed Pages both at the plate and behind it, posting a 47.5% called strike rate in 2024 to Pages' 45.8%.
1B: Jake Burger, TEX
In the second half of 2024, only Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Anthony Santander, and Eugenio Suarez had more home runs than Jake Burger (19). Burger was phenomenal all around in the second half a season ago, posting a 148 OPS+. While that level of success likely won't be sustained for a whole season, it shows what Burger is capable of, especially moving to a ballpark that ranks fourth in home run factor to right-handed batters over the last three years.
We could very easily see Burger smack 35 home runs and drive in 90-plus while hitting behind Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia.
2B: Kristian Campbell, BOS
With Alex Bregman joining the Red Sox this offseason, there is a lot of competition for middle infield spots in Boston. However, Campbell might offer more offensive production than Trevor Story or Ceddanne Rafaela. In fact, MLB is already reporting that Campbell will compete for the starting second baseman spot after hitting 20 home runs in 430 at-bats in the minors a year ago.
Campbell has raked at every level and has had a meteoric rise to the top of the Red Sox prospect pipeline. He's yet to post an OPS under .800 at any level and will likely be hitting behind Tyler O'Neill, Alex Bregman, Jarren Durran, and Rafael Devers for most of the season.
3B: Jose Tena, WSH
Tena hits the ball hard, very hard. His 91.2 mph exit velocity and 49.2% hard-hit rate are both elite figures. Still, despite his incredible batted ball numbers, Tena was pretty unlucky at the plate, with only eight of his 43 hits in Washington going for extra bases. Furthermore, Tena's expected weighted on-base average was 19 points higher than his actual wOBA, implying that he should improve at the plate next season.
That is also backed up by his minor league production. With Washington in 2024, Tena only walked in 4.2% of his plate appearances, but in the minors, he was consistently walking between 7% and 9% of the time, so his on-base percentage could also improve this year.
SS: Luisangel Acuña, NYM
Mets' manager Carlos Mendoza has already made it clear that Acuña will have a "huge role" in 2025. While Acuña won't provide much in the power department, he's still a very solid contact hitter with incredible speed. Should he find his way to the top of the Mets' lineup, which seems very possible given Brandon Nimmo's struggles last year, he'll have ample opportunity for runs and stolen bases, which would be a huge help in both head-to-head and points formats. Additionally, with Lindor the obvious shortstop in town, Acuña could also provide eligibility at multiple positions.
OF: Dylan Crews, WSH
It's easy to pick a top prospect and call it a day for breakouts, but Crews has an especially good chance to break out this season. He's practically already slated into the two-hole in Washington's lineup and should be given ample opportunity to succeed even if he struggles through the first two or three months as he gets acclimated to the majors.
While Crews' short stint in the majors last year didn't go particularly well, there were a lot of metrics that pointed at better days ahead. For instance, Crews' ground ball rate in the majors was 57.1%, which is a far cry from his minor league rate (42.1%). His hard-hit rate and exit velocity also took a hit but should return to the norm sooner rather than later.
At the very least, Crews has a very solid floor for his rookie season, likely bottoming out at 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. However, if that is his floor, imagine his ceiling.
OF: Parker Meadows, DET
Everyone likes to point at Detroit's pitching staff as the biggest reason the team soared through the second half of 2024. However, Parker Meadows might have been an even bigger reason.
Meadows recorded a stellar .296/.340/.500 triple-slash in the second half, and that almost certianly wasn't a fluke. Meadows was sent back down to the minors last season and in that time, he made an adjustment to his swing, opting for more bat speed. Obviously, it worked wonders, raising his average by over 160 points between the first and second halves.
If Meadows can maintain any semblance of the success he found down the stretch last year, he'll be an awesome pick for someone you can grab outside the top-200 picks.
OF: Matt Wallner, MIN
With a consensus ADP outside the top-250, Wallner poses incredible potential. Take one look at his Baseball Savant page, and you'll see a sea of red, hinting at his remarkable batted ball skills.
The only problem with Wallner is his contact rate. His 38.4% whiff rate is abysmal, but it also isn't indicative of his plate discipline. Wallner was actually above league average in chase rate (26%), meaning he has a great eye but struggles to hit the ball when it's in the zone.
Even with that huge hole in his swing though, Wallner still posted a 149 OPS+, marking him as an elite hitter. His ADP is far too low at this point.
SP: Hunter Brown, HOU
Much like how Tarik Skubal took a massive leap in 2024 into one of the best pitchers in baseball, Brown could take a similar leap in 2025. His ability to induce weak contact is elite, ranking in the 95th percentile or better in both hard-hit percentage (30.3%) and average exit velocity (86.2).
In addition, Brown's fastball was a very unlucky pitch in 2024. Hitters posted a .249 batting average and .423 slugging percentage against it in 2024, but the expected batting average was .221, and the expected slugging was a lowly .358. With a little more luck and perhaps less reliance on his sinker and cutter, neither of which were particularly effective in 2024, Brown could take a massive leap in 2025.
RP: Hunter Bigge, TB
Pete Fairbanks is heading into 2025 as the Rays' top closer option. However, he has some injury concerns and wasn't particularly effective in 2024. His strikeout rate dropped substantially from 13.5 strikeouts per nine to just 8.7. Expected batting average against rose from .175 in 2023 to .256. Expected slugging against rose from .257 to .395 as well. And to top it off, his average fastball velocity dropped from 98.9 to 97.3 mph.
Hunter Bigge posted similar stats to Fairbanks in 2024, but seems to be more on the upswing. In particular, his fastball was hit for a .257 average but posted a .222 expected batting average against.
What really makes Bigge a great option at closer though is his putaway potential. Bigge boasted a 34% whiff rate and struck out 32.9% of batters faced in 2024, both of which are elite marks. While he did have problems with walks as well, those problems all but disappeared when he got to Tampa. His walks per nine dropped from 5.4 to 1.9 the moment he got to Florida. If he can maintain that level of control, he'll be a great fantasy asset with devastating strikeout potential.