2025 fantasy baseball: 10 risky picks who can make or break your drafts
You can't win a chip in fantasy baseball without taking a few risks, but knowing which risks are worth taking can be the difference between a title and a trip to the toilet bowl. Of course, that's easier said than done. Any trip down white water rapids can look like a thrilling venture, but it only winds up being so if the end result pans out.
That said, those same risky players could end up being worth every penny. If you're in a good position during your draft and willing to swing for the fences at the cost of striking out instead, then perhaps consider one of the following players.
Here are the riskiest players at each position heading into the fantasy baseball season. Make sure to check out our top sleeper picks, all breakout team, and bust selections for 2025 drafts.
Riskiest 2025 fantasy baseball picks
Diaz is not a bad catcher by any means, but for someone currently going inside the top-60 picks, Diaz's lack of power in 2024 might be too risky to consider when you can grab other solid catching options thirty or forty picks later. Not to mention, with Christian Walker joining the Astros this offseason, Diaz will likely get moved down in the lineup, providing fewer opportunities for Diaz to provide RBI numbers.
Diaz will get hits. He will get consistent play time, but seeing his ISO drop over 100 points between 2023 (.256) and 2024 (.142) is not a good sign. He's a very safe option with a very high floor, but he probably won't return top-60 pick value if you draft him there.
Naylor enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, posting career highs in home runs and RBIs. However, that type of power shouldn't be expected in 2025. Naylor is moving from Progressive Field, which ranked 5th in left-handed home run factor (116) last season, to Chase Field, which ranked 27th (77).
That said, Naylor could still have a very productive season. Before the renovations made to Progressive Field boosted home run potential ahead of the 2024 season, Naylor was still an incredible player who posted 17 home runs and 97 RBI in 2023. Sure, in terms of fantasy, he wasn't as great, but he was still a very good player. Of course, now people are drafting him assuming that he'll produce similarly to what he did in 2024, which likely won't be the case.
Matt McLain was incredible in 2023, hitting 16 home runs and driving in 50 runners in just 89 games. After shoulder surgery prevented him from seeing the field in 2024, people are anticipating a return to form for the Reds' young star.
Could he be just as good as he was in 2023? Sure, but it seems unlikely. Injuries aside, McLain's 2023 success seemed to rely heavily on luck. McLain's strikeout rate (28.5%), zone contact rate (83%), and overall contact rate (74.7%) were all below average. In fact, in 2023, the only advanced analytics that McLain excelled in was his Launch Angle Sweet Spot percentage (39.6%). However, that's a pretty middling stat to excel in with other players like Keibert Ruiz, Donovan Solano, and Charlie Blackmon all ranking right around McLain that year, but none of whom had particularly great seasons. Furthermore, both McLain's expected batting average (.256) and expected slugging percentage (.436) were significantly lower than what McLain wound up with (.290; .507) in 2023.
McLain possesses great power for a second baseman. He's also very fast. He has all the tools necessary to be a fantasy darling, but there is a chance he regresses, given the injury and his advanced stats.
Mark Vientos could be a run-producing monster in 2025. After all, he's going to hit behind three players who excel at reaching base in Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso. Still, Vientos' advanced metrics hint that he could be in for regression this year.
Vientos was actually below average in bat speed, chase rate, and whiff rate in 2024. He chases balls out of the zone, often can't make contact, and struggles to catch up to heat. That's not a good combination. Obviously, it didn't matter much a season ago, and theoretically, if the players in front of Vientos can all get on base routinely, then Vientos should see more pitches to hit, thus mitigating his chase rate. However, those issues are still there regardless of Vientos' situation, and it could create some issues for someone routinely going within the top-100 picks.
If I told you there was a player who outperformed every single expected metric he had in 2024 yet still produced lackluster numbers, would you be interested in drafting that player? Now, what if I also told you that despite those poor numbers, he was still a solid power option at shortstop?
That's what Ezequiel Tovar brings to the table. Playing in Coors, Tovar benefits from having lackluster production, as his ballpark bails him out more often than others. Regardless, he did rack up 75 extra-base hits in 2024. That's hard to find at shortstop.
Tovar possesses very good power and had a great season a year ago, but one look at his expected numbers and you'll see how bad things could've been.
Much like Tovar, Doyle benefits mightily from playing at Coors. On the road last year, Doyle put up a pitiful .211/.271/.364 triple-slash, which was only marginally worse than his entire second half where he put up a .234/.274/.407 triple-slash. For someone who could go within the top-80 or 90 picks, you're better off looking for someone with less risk attached.
Despite Jasson Dominguez being atop the Yankees' depth chart at left field, Dominguez could very easily get relegated to a platoon role if he does not improve against left-handed pitching. Even in the minors, and despite Dominguez being a switch-hitter, he posted a .185 batting average with only one home run against southpaws. In the majors, albeit only 30 plate appearances, he's posted an abysmal .120/.267/.120 triple-slash against lefties.
Considering all this information, it's astounding that he's still going around pick 150 in fantasy drafts. That said, with the Yankees bringing in Cody Bellinger and Dominguez finally set to get considerable playing time, there is a chance he excels in that lineup. Would you be willing to take that risk though?
Given Profar's incredible 2024, it's easy to forget just how bad he was beforehand. Much of that success can probably be attributed to Petco Park as well. Profar has had four seasons with an OPS+ over 100 in his career. Three have come as a member of the Padres. The only other came in 2018 as a member of the Texas Rangers (107).
Profar had excelled at Petco Park his entire career, and in 2024, his OPS dropped from .913 at home to just .772 on the road. Still solid, but not near his home split. Now, he's heading to Truist Park, where he has a career .724 OPS? That seems awfully low for someone going around pick 150.
The future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander seems dead set on reaching 300 wins, and he's heading to a very pitcher-friendly Oracle Park to get it done. That doesn't mean it's going to be pretty though.
In 2024, Verlander's strikeout rate dropped below 20% for the first time since 2014, when he posted a 4.54 ERA. His fastball velocity was also its lowest since 2015 (93.7 mph). Of course, Verlander was able to bounce back from those seasons and put together a tremendous tenure with the Houston Astros, but how likely is a similar bounce back with Verlander now 42 years old? Seems unlikely.
Ryan Walker is headed into 2025 as the Giants' primary closer. That's not a secure position though. So long as Camilo Doval is around, Walker is walking on thin ice. Doval throws harder, strikes more people out, and led the National League in saves as recently as 2023. Walker is going to be on a very short leash, and although Doval likely will be as well, given how horrendous 2024 was, he'll probably get a little more leeway as someone who has already proven himself in the closer role before and over a longer period of time.
That said, Walker is tremendous, and barring massive regression, he could very well still hold a firm grasp on the closer role in San Francisco.