Chet Holmgren is moving NBA Rookie of the Year odds with his Summer League play… again
Welcome to Layup Lines, our basketball newsletter where we'll prep you for the tip-off of tonight's action, from what to watch to bets to make. This is Prince J. Grimes.
Chet Holmgren made his 2023 Summer League debut Monday and his 15-point, nine-rebound, four-block effort apparently had an effect on NBA Rookie of the Year odds, which moved a little closer in his favor Wednesday.
FanDuel had Holmgren at +700 odds after the June draft, and those odds were +550 as recently as Tuesday. However, folks must've gotten a hold of some of Holmgren's awesome highlights against the Utah Jazz - or they took this guarantee from his OKC teammate Josh Giddey to heart - because his odds were on the move again Wednesday, jumping to +500.
It's not a massive leap from where they previously were - and he's still third behind Victor Wembanyama (-135) and Scoot Henderson (+330) - but even the slight movement suggests there were a few bettors who saw enough to throw some money on the 2022 first-rounder.
If this all sounds familiar, it should, because it's exactly what happened when Holmgren made his Summer League debut last year and became the rookie award favorite at FanDuel. Of course, we never got to see how those bets would've played out, because he suffered a season-ending injury before the season could even begin. But I think he would've absolutely been in the conversation come year-end, and I think he provides good value to bettors this season too.
Wembanyama is such a massive favorite that the payout for bets on Holmgren and other rookies is so much better. And while it's hard to conceive any of them actually outplaying Wembanyama, Holmgren is the one player with seemingly the best chance because of his potential impact on both offense and defense, and his one-year head start. Plus, all it takes is an injury like the one Holmgren suffered last year to catapult somebody else into the lead position.
But as I said last summer, bettors shouldn't overreact to any one Summer League game. Just as quickly as Holmgren inspired confidence on Monday, Wembanyama can erase it all when he makes his Summer League debut Friday.
The Tip-Off
Some NBA goodness from around the Paste BN Sports network.
As we continue to await word on what will happen with the Damian Lillard and Portland Trail Blazers saga, Paste BN Sports' Jeff Zillgitt explored an interesting angle of Lillard's trade request: what exactly do the Blazers owe their franchise cornerstone.
We know Lillard wants out, and he reportedly prefers a trade to Miami, but does Portland have to give him what he wants?
"While technically the Blazers don't owe him anything other than what the contract stipulates, it's not that simple in the NBA. The Blazers and Cronin have reputations at stake, and it makes sense to maintain a strong relationship with one of the greatest players in franchise history, a person who can someday be a great ambassador for the team when his playing career is over.
While Lillard doesn't have the same leverage as Bradley Beal, who had a no-trade clause in his contract, he has some. Why would a team give up valuable draft picks and players for a player who doesn't want to be there? That team could be in the same position as Portland one year from now.
There is a lasting impact in how a team treats a franchise player, and no team wants to have a negative perception from players, agents and fans. Look no further than Vince Carter and the Toronto Raptors. It took years for the fractured relationship to begin healing. It's a business, but not one without real emotions."
That dynamic described by Zillgitt illustrates the power players have in today's NBA, and it's exactly why Lillard will get what he wants in the end. It's just a matter of when. For everything he's given to the Blazers over the last decade, it's hard to say he doesn't deserve it.
Shootaround
- Kalbrosky: Lillard's sobering lesson on the NBA's continuity problem
- The 7 best NBA free agents remaining
- The oldest players in 2023 Summer League