Why Caleb Williams' dad should absolutely terrify the NFL
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No American sports league sells hope quite like the NFL. In fact, the NFL's entire business model is constructed around telling every fanbase of a lousy team that their squad can turn its fortunes around with one productive offseason. At the center of selling that snake oil - most awful teams have been consistently horrible for decades - is the annual draft.
An important decision from presumed 2024 No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams could throw this whole plan for a loop.
In a new GQ profile, Williams and his father, Carl, discussed the uncertainty of the next phase of the USC star quarterback's career. Because of the nature of the NFL draft, Williams won't get the opportunity to pick where he wants to play at the next level. He will, in all likelihood, play for the NFL's worst team. And for as gifted as the USC superstar is, Williams' father asserted that nothing is guaranteed in the pros. Even the best quarterbacks can be ruined by terrible team situations.
As such, Williams - a player many are already labeling a generational, franchise-changing prospect - might return to USC instead of entering the 2024 draft. That's great news for Williams and his family if they dislike the team with the top pick. That's bad news for the NFL, which loves selling parity and hope and pawning off talents like Williams to squads ( hello, Arizona Cardinals!) that would readily throw him into the football meat grinder.
"I mean, I've [Williams' dad] talked to Archie Manning-his career was shot because he went to a horrible organization. I've talked to Lincoln [Riley], and Kyler [Murray] struggled because of where he was drafted. Baker [Mayfield] struggled mightily because of where he was drafted. The organizations matter." And there's a break-in-case-of-emergency option that Carl is keeping in mind. "He's got two shots at the apple," he says. "So if there's not a good situation, the truth is, he can come back to school."
Carl Williams isn't wrong, and such a set-up wouldn't be ideal for his son. Sure, the standard line is that Williams would elevate his teammates and make the league's worst team better by playing for it, blah, blah, blah. Young quarterbacks need time to develop. They need patience. They need support and talent and quality coaching to reach their ceiling. And they can't be rushed. Once you develop poor habits, it becomes that much harder to shake them later on.
It's easy to forget now, but Patrick Mahomes sat for most of his NFL rookie season in 2017. By the time he played full-time, he was a starter at the helm of a loaded Kansas City Chiefs squad on offense with Andy Reid as his coach - perhaps the best offensive mind in the sport's history.
If Caleb Williams were to go somewhere barren, like the Cardinals or the Las Vegas Raiders, for example, he wouldn't get the same luxury. He'd have to do much of the heavy lifting by himself, and the intense microscope on his success or failure would remain the same. He'd mostly have to learn on the fly, and it's no guarantee he'd reach his tantalizing potential. We might see a shell of the player we saw in college.
And Williams would be far from the first prodigy talent to fall short under these kinds of circumstances.
More from Carl Williams and GQ:
"The funky thing about the NFL draft process is, he'd almost be better off not being drafted than being drafted first. The system is completely backwards," he says. "The way the system is constructed, you go to the worst possible situation. The worst possible team, the worst organization in the league-because of their desire for parity-gets the first pick. So it's the gift and the curse."
I should stress that the thoughts Williams' dad shares aren't original. The NFL draft has never been player-first. It is team-first, fan-first, in a way. But that doesn't make it right that super-talents like Williams can have their careers potentially ruined before they even step onto a professional football field.
So, I understand the apprehension coming from Carl Williams. And I would get why Williams could return to USC. He's already one of the biggest sports stars in Southern California, playing for a National Championship contender. He's profiting well off NILs and gets to enjoy beautiful weather year-round. Why ruin that if a Division II football team masquerading as an NFL squad is what's waiting for him in the big leagues?
The NFL should take heed of these kinds of threats. If a talent like Williams and his family don't appreciate the draft set-up, what the college game has to offer star players could start to put a blemish on those sales of hope. There would have to be more generational talents joining Williams - if he does, indeed, return to USC - either in this draft or the future. But it's still enough to take notice of a process that seldom gives top players a genuine chance to succeed.
Williams' dad's threat is a canary in the coal mine for the NFL's flawed draft "business" model. We'll see if the league actually pays attention.
Five burning questions for NFL opening night
After so many long months of waiting, the NFL's opening night is finally here, Michael Sykes writes.
The march to the Super Bowl begins with an opening night matchup between the NFL's champion, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the upstart Detroit Lions. The casual fan is probably expecting a blowout here because, well, it's the Lions. And their long history isn't necessarily a kind one.
But I think this game should be pretty good! The Chiefs are great and they have the best player in the league, obviously. The Lions should be a good team this year, too, though.
With that in mind, here are five questions I have on this opening night matchup.
- How do the Chiefs look if Travis Kelce doesn't play? Travis Kelce is showing up on the Chiefs' injury report as questionable ahead of tonight's action with a bone bruise. The chances of him playing don't seem to be the greatest. Of course, this is probably the best-case scenario after the initial speculation that he may have torn his ACL. Kelce hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2014. Losing him would be a huge hit to Mahomes and the Kansas City Offense.
- How bad will the Chiefs' defense be without Chris Jones? Chris Jones is currently in a contract dispute with Kansas City. My guy says he's just looking for a raise. The Chiefs haven't budged yet. Jones is still without a contract but, until he gets one, he's not playing. The problem is he's the best player on a middling Chiefs defense by far. So, without him, where does that leave Kansas City? We'll find out on Thursday night.
- Are the Lions legit? The Lions have been the popular pick to win the NFC North this season and for good reason. The squad was solid last year — Detroit nearly made the playoffs. But they may have been the most Jekyll and Hyde team in the NFL last year. The Lions started the year 1-6 but won eight of their last 10 games to finish at 9-8. Which one of those Detroit teams was the real one? We'll find out soon.
- What's up with Jared Goff? Part of the reason the Lions found so much success in 2022 was because Jared Goff was really, really good. He posted a career-low interception percentage of 1.2 percent while throwing 29 touchdowns on the year. He had good protection behind a stout Lions offensive line and was able to make plays. Let's hope Detroit can restore the feeling again. We need that. Y'all remember what happened the last time Mahomes and Goff faced off, right?
- Are we biting kneecaps tonight? DAN CAMPBELL FOREVER. Sorry, Lions fans. But I'm never letting this go.
While you were sleeping...
LSU women's basketball head coach Kim Mulkey just coached LSU to its first ring in women's college hoops. And you know what that means. Usually, with rings, comes money. Mulkey just got the money. A lot of it.
She got the biggest payday women's college hoops has ever seen, to be exact. Mulkey signed a 10-year, $32 million contract extension to stay at LSU, according to ESPN's M.A. Voepel.
"Mulkey's compensation will keep her right at the top of the highest-paid women's basketball coaches in the country in terms of average annual salary, along with the UConn Huskies' Geno Auriemma and the South Carolina Gamecocks' Dawn Staley."
I think it's safe to say that she's not going anywhere else anytime soon.
Quick Hits: NFL teams as "The Office" clips ... Survivor Pool picks ... and more
— Our Cory Woodruff compared all 32 NFL teams to clips from "The Office" and, well, do I really need to say more? Read this.
— Prince Grimes has five survivor pool picks for the NFL in week one that you should really consider. Let my boy win you some cash.
— Charles Curtis put together an explainer on the NFL's new controversial fair catch rules. Check this out before watching tonight's action.
— Madison Keys just moved into my inner circle of favorite tennis players with this one.
That's a wrap, folks! Happy Friday Jr. Enjoy your day.