It's one thing to postpone the Kentucky Derby. Finding a new date is much harder
Postponing the Kentucky Derby is a no-brainer. Rescheduling it, however, takes some thought.
In recommending that no gatherings of more than 50 people be held for the next eight weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have likely forced the hand of the fence-straddlers at Churchill Downs.
Though corporate confirmation is not expected until a 9 a.m. teleconference on Tuesday, America’s longest-running sports event will surely not be staged on the first Saturday in May this year. That operators have yet to publicly concede that inevitability, or to acknowledge signs the new date is Sept. 5, reflects the difficulty of moving an enormous event under sub-optimal conditions.
As big a deal as it is, the Derby does not exist in a vacuum. As the first leg of thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown, the Run for the Roses has a symbiotic relationship with the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Moreover, its contractual obligation to NBC Sports runs through 2025.
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Beyond the Himalayan hurdles of a four-month shift in Derby logistics, preserving the continuity of a rescheduled Triple Crown on a timetable agreeable to its network partner would be a tremendous challenge under ordinary circumstances. Doing so amid the coronavirus pandemic is an act of optimism, one that is arguably unwarranted.
Who knows when the virus can be contained? Who knows if race dates penciled in in March will be erased by events down the road? With Keeneland canceling its spring meet Monday, certainties are growing scarce.
This much is known — Churchill Downs currently controls three sets of 2020 racing dates: April 25-June 27; Sept. 16-27 and Oct. 28-Nov. 29. Additional dates could be made available on an emergency basis by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, though those dates would likely conflict with those previously awarded to other tracks.
Considering Churchill Downs’ clout, that’s certainly not an insurmountable obstacle. Though the KHRC strives to provide exclusivity during the meets of its thoroughbred and standardbred tracks, there is nothing in state licensing regulations to prohibit overlapping dates. Meanwhile, those regulations contain a clear mandate to “maximize revenues to the state.”
Few events maximize revenues like the Kentucky Derby. Marc Guilfoil, executive director of the KHRC, was asked recently if the Derby was racing's proverbial 1,000-pound gorilla.
“It’s bigger than that,” he said.
The only relevant limitation in Chapter 230 of the Kentucky Revised Statutes is that a track granted overlapping dates within a 50-mile radius of another track is not permitted to have post times after 5:30 p.m. from July 1 through Sept. 15 unless agreed to in writing by the tracks affected.
Given Churchill Downs’ distance from other Kentucky tracks, that provision would not apply here. Given Ellis Park’s June 28-Sept. 6 race meet, Churchill Downs’ interest in encroaching on another track’s racing calendar could be overwhelming.
NBC’s contractual commitment to Notre Dame leaves only two Saturdays between late August and early December when the network is not broadcasting Fighting Irish football: Sept. 5 and Oct. 24. Because the latter date falls only two weeks before the Breeders’ Cup is scheduled to be conducted at Keeneland, a tough turnaround for top 3-year-olds, the Sept. 5 date is more logical and, by all indications, much more likely.
“I can say with certainty that we cannot confirm that date yet, and anyone who has is completely preliminary,” said Churchill Downs spokeswoman Tonya Abeln.
“I can’t confirm or deny that,” said Karen Williams, president and CEO of Louisville Tourism. “I will say that (Churchill Downs president) Kevin (Flanery) and I have been in contact the last three weeks. All that I’ve told my hotels — and they’re very aware of our conversations — is that the hopeful silver lining is that the Derby would not be canceled. It would be postponed.”
Whether the Derby will retain its traditional place as the first of the Triple Crown races is unclear. Craig Fravel, who presides over racing operations for the Stronach Group, which operates the Preakness and Pimlico, said talks on that topic, “are all internal, so I really can’t discuss them publicly at this point.
“... Everyone is moving at lightning speed, adjusting to different rules and protocols. So at this point we don’t have anything to discuss publicly.”
The New York Racing Association, which oversees the Belmont Stakes, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Skip Sayre, chief of sales and marketing for Laguna Development, said late Sunday that Ellis Park had not been approached about sharing a race date with Churchill Downs. He was reluctant to speculate on possible scenarios.
“What we’re really doing is dealing with conditions on the ground,” Sayre said. “What comes next, I don’t think a lot of us have a great idea yet.”
Tim Sullivan: 502-582-4650, tsullivan@courier-journal.com; Twitter: @TimSullivan714. Support strong local journalism by subscribing today: courier-journal.com/tims