2025 Kentucky Derby Day: Expert picks, tips from Horse Racing Nation's Ed DeRosa

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May 3 is Kentucky Derby Day. Wherever you are and however you bet, this is the day you set aside some time and dollars to make up for all the other days. Christmas morning and Easter Sunday all rolled into the first Saturday in May.

The 14-race Kentucky Derby card features some of the best horses on the planet as well as some unique and potentially lucrative wagering opportunities to go with it. Let’s find some winners and winning tickets!

RACE 1

If trainer Michael McCarthy were to win any race on this day, the lid lifter would probably not be his choice, but he does have a big chance with first-time starter No. 1 Knicks Code, who has taken a while to make it to the races but has been patiently prepared for this by his trainer, who will also saddle Derby favorite Journalism later in the program.

Of those who have run, No. 11 Coffee Talk has the best race, a narrow defeat last out after making the lead late but getting caught. Outside post and lack of other speed could give Luis Saez an opportunity to control things early.

PICKS: 1-11

RACE 2

No. 10 Generous Lover realized her potential last year after trainer Joe Sharp claimed her for $50,000 and found a honeypot in the Ohio stakes scene, winning three of four stakes among her fellow Buckeye natives. This is a class test, but she has early speed, and it’s her race to lose if ready off the layoff.

Staying to the outside with our underneath play, as No. 11 Barbratina probably deserves a mulligan off that return performance. She was bet down to about 9-5 odds and faded badly after pressing a fast pace. That return will likely scare some people away, and she might be worth a bet to run back to her best.

PICKS: 10-11

RACE 3

Not too often you see a well-regarded Bob Baffert-trained debut runner stalking and pouncing, but that is how No. 5 Goal Oriented won his debut when 11-10 against six others four weeks ago at Santa Anita Park. He rallied wide into contention before blowing the doors off the field and winning big by 3 ¼ lengths. Baffert is back in the Derby; is his beer money horse back, too?

No. 3 Valentinian has been pace compromised in both his starts, but his talent was enough to overcome the maiden ranks before being a fast-closing third next out. There is a lot of speed drawn to his outside, so maybe that helps him get it done here, but hard to envision a scenario in which our top pick doesn’t get the jump on him. Baffert’s other runner in here, No. 9 Tiz Secure, tried turf last out for some reason.

PICKS: 5-3-9

RACE 4

Stakes action begins here with a one-turn mile for older males. It also starts the all-dirt Pick-5 that ends with the Kentucky Derby.

No. 6 Kupuna ended up pressing a fast pace last out in the Evangeline Mile, and I’m not sure that’s really his best game. Brian Hernandez Jr. gets aboard here, and a midpack journey seems more beneficial with all the speed signed on here.

No. 12 Patriot Spirit can run horses off their hooves when he’s at his best, and the outside post will force him to be aggressive, and I like jockey Junior Alvarado as a fit for him. No. 9 Liberal Arts could get the right pace to crash the party at a big price.

PICKS: 6-12-9

RACE 5

The Sand Springs Stakes looks like a key provider of contenders for the Distaff Turf Mile Stakes here, as Sand Springs one-two finishers Movin’ On Up and Five Towns both fit here. The former picks up jockey Jose Ortiz and should be prominent throughout. The latter can improve second off the layoff, and trainer Graham Motion is so deadly on these big raceday undercards.

I liked No. 6 Sacred Wish too much last time in the Jenny Wiley to dismiss her here. She didn’t do anything wrong that day, just had a wide trip dull her closing kick behind a few really good female turf types.

PICKS: 2-5-6

RACE 6

While this race is not THE one we’re waiting for, it will be worth whatever wait there is because it is a barn burner of a one-turn mile for 3-year-old males.

No. 1 Madaket Road and No. 2 Built might take more money than they should based on their celebrity surrounding almost going to the Kentucky Derby. They’re fine 3-year-olds and are among the win contenders here, but there is no way either offers fair value to win.

Two obvious underlays means opportunity somewhere, though, so let’s see if we can find it with No. 3 California Burrito, who looked like a Jeff Ruby Steaks winner before taking an awkward step and fading to seventh. No. 7 Macho Music has so much speed early (and better speed than Innovator); I can’t dismiss him. No. 5 Gate To Wire is the closer to fear.

PICKS: 3-7-5

RACE 7

For a turf sprint, there are not a lot of need-the-lead types. One of them is No. 1 Coppola, who is buried on the rail with his past performances suggesting he does not like to start inside. The other speed is No. 8 Rogue Lightning, who figures to get a better trip than the rail and should improve second time out.

No. 7 Think Big is undefeated in three starts turf sprinting and retains Ben Curtis, who I think is underrated in Kentucky.

PICKS: 8-7-6

RACE 8

It’s Grade 1 racing time. The Churchill Downs Stakes is the first leg of the all-Grade 1 Pick 5 that ends with the Kentucky Derby and features some real heavy hitters, though perhaps none so heavy than the return of Nysos, who is undefeated in three starts by a combined 26 ¼ lengths.

No. 10 Nysos won the Bob Hope and Robert and Beverly Lewis Stakes last year before being sidelined. He has been working steadily for Baffert since late January, and it’s too late in the day to worry about whether this is a beer money horse.

No. 11 Mullikin has some extremely impressive races but none that are out of reach of Nysos if he has improved at all as a 4-year-old. No. 2 Banishing and No. 4 Giant Mischief are both capable of some early zip. No. 7 Mindframe I’ll let beat me off that lackluster return at 1-10.

PICKS: 10-11-2-4

RACE 9

The American Turf is for 3-year-olds on the turf and is the newest Grade 1 of the stakes (and Derby Week) calendar. 

Not that Irad Ortiz Jr. riding for Brendan Walsh lacks any kind of star power, but it’s not exactly Flavien Prat for Chad Brown on the turf, either. The former pair up with No. 3 New Century, and he is the play over the latter’s No. 7 Zulu Kingdom.

New Century ran awesome here last year, taking the Grade 1 Summer Stakes before a good fourth behind Henri Matisse in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Three-year-old return at Newmarket was fine for a comeback but anticipate he will like things better here. 

Zulu Kingdom went faster in that Breeders’ Cup than ever before, and that concerns me because this is a much better group than he saw in the Columbia Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, so what if he’s keyed up and goes again? No. 10 Iron Man Cal just missed in the Breeders’ Cup last out, so gives some seasoning to our top two tabs.

PICKS: 3-7-10

RACE 10

Seven furlongs against graded-stakes competition can be a tricky distance, which is why it’s noteworthy that No. 2 Kopion is undefeated in three starts at it. The most recent two of those were the La Brea and Santa Monica Stakes by a combined 7 ¼ lengths, and she beat the likes of next-out graded-stakes winner Richi last out.

Both No. 7 Vahva and No. 8 Ways and Means are returning from the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, and I have some concern that they both might need this race. Kopion is a single.

PICK: 2

RACE 11

Ah … the classic lead-in to the Kentucky Derby! The Old Forrester Turf Classic has had several names throughout the years, but regardless: You know if a whiskey is sponsoring a turf race on Derby Day then the Derby itself can’t be far behind.

No. 10 Spirit of St Louis I thought was formidable in the Muniz last out but just ended up with a murky path behind a long-shot winner. I’m expecting a better effort here, and maybe that last race will help our price.

No. 3 Highway Robber started his season in Dubai and should improve back stateside. No. 2 Gold Phoenix is always so convenient at generous prices.

PICKS: 10-3-2

RACE 12

This is it! The Kentucky Derby. 1 ¼ miles between someone that I used to know and immortality.

No. 8 Journalism is a worthy favorite here off his three-race win streak and titillating performances this year in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. The San Felipe, in particular, was the best prep race of 2025. Post is fine, as he is one of the few stalker/midpack types. His ability to overcome trouble balanced with a solid trip being projected makes him dangerous.

No. 19 Chunk of Gold changed tactics in the Louisiana Derby when jockey Jareth Loveberry sat a little closer to the pace. They won the battle — finishing ahead of all the front-runners — but lost the war to Tiztastic, who closed on the outside to get the top prize. Still, Chunk of Gold sold a dimension that day that could serve a purpose here.

No. 4 Rodriguez is the biggest threat of the speed horses, almost all of which (save Owen Almighty) have drawn inside. Mike Smith already has a Kentucky Derby in gate-to-wire fashion (aboard eventual Triple Crown champion Justify), and it would not surprise me to see it done again here.

PICKS: 8-19-4

RACE 13

No gimmes in this double that closes out the card, as this entry-level allowance for 3-year-olds with No. 11 Patch Adams looking to get his mojo back after some flops on the Triple Crown trail. His maiden win at Churchill one of the best 2-year-old performances last year. Can he run back to it here?

No. 14 Big Truzz ran off the screen on debut, beating his closest rival by four lengths and the fourth-place finisher by 15 ¾ lengths. No. 9 Romanesque took a step back last time in a stakes, but he is likely better than that.

PICKS: 11-14-9

RACE 14

No. 12 Pursuitneversleeps has an interesting name but more importantly a lot of talent as well. Chased the winner around the track on his debut, and it was another 10 lengths back to third.

No. 5 Advanced Spirit improved enough second time out that further improvement here puts him in the conversation of our top play. That was a turf-to-dirt play along with a little added distance, and now he stays on dirt but gets out to 7 furlongs.

PICKS: 12-5

This story was updated to add a gallery and video.