Kentucky Derby predictions: Who are long shot picks to win at Churchill Downs?
(Editor's note: This story has been updated with news that Grande was scratched from the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Friday.)
Coined "the fastest two minutes in sports," the Kentucky Derby is one of the great American treasures on the sports calendar each season.
Much of the reason for that has to do with the unpredictability of the Run for the Roses, as 19 different 3-year-old horses go head-to-head against each other each first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.
The Kentucky Derby, in fact, has not seen a morning-line favorite go on to win the first leg of the Triple Crown season since 2018 with Justify — something Journalism looks to break this year. Mystik Dan had 20-1 odds going into the day of the sesquicentennial run of the derby last year before winning it, which was tied for sixth best among all horses.
Hall of Famer Bob Baffert's horse, Citizen Bull is considered a long-shot winner this year with morning line odds of 17-1. Saturday's Kentucky Derby is the first time that Baffert will be back at Churchill Downs after serving a three-year suspension following a failed drug test by 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit.
Former MLB outfielder and 2008 Philadelphia Phillies World Series champion Jayson Werth's horse, Flying Mohawk, had the fourth-worst odds at 35-1. As for who had the longest odds of winning Saturday's race, that would belong to Neoequos at 55-1 odds.
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby has an estimated post time of 7:02 p.m. ET on Saturday in Louisville, Kentucky.
Here are the latest odds for the Kentucky Derby and who within the Paste BN Network have picked as their long shot selection to win the Run for the Roses:
Kentucky Derby 2025: Who are long shots at winning?
Dan Wolken, Paste BN: Luxor Cafe (13-1)
"I’m going to take a bit of a different path here and pick Luxor Cafe. Watching his races from Japan, I think he is a super talent with a devastating turn of foot that many Derby winners have. Now, the quality of horses he was running against in Japan is a huge question. So is the transition to America all the external factors that come with shipping a horse halfway across the world. But Forever Young’s performance last year showed that the quality of top Japanese horses is good enough now to win a Derby at some point. Maybe this year. I also expect Sovereignty to run a huge race, so that will probably be my exacta box."
Ed DeRosa, the Louisville Courier-Journal/Horse Racing Nation: Chunk of Gold (31-1)
"No. 19 Chunk of Gold changed tactics in the Louisiana Derby when jockey Jareth Loveberry sat a little closer to the pace. They won the battle — finishing ahead of all the front-runners — but lost the war to Tiztastic, who closed on the outside to get the top prize. Still, Chunk of Gold sold a dimension that day that could serve a purpose here."
Here's who experts at the Louisville Courier-Journal, part of the Paste BN Network, picked as their long-shot picks in the derby:
- Rich Barak: Citizen Bull (16-1)
- Ryan Black: Final Gambit (16-1)
- C.L. Brown: Baeza (33-1)
- Jason Frakes: Publisher (28-1)
- Brooks Holton: Final Gambit (16-1)
- Natalie Pierre: Citizen Bull (16-1)
- Prince James Story: Coal Battle (28-1)
- Payton Titus: Coal Battle (28-1)
Kentucky Derby odds
Odds as of 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 1, according to KentuckyDerby.com
- No. 1: Citizen Bull | Odds: 16-1
- No. 2: Neoequos | Odds: 53-1
- No. 3: Final Gambit | Odds: 16-1
No. 4: Rodriguez| SCRATCHED- No. 5: American Promise | Odds: 12-1
- No. 6: Admire Daytona | Odds: 37-1
- No. 7: Luxor Cafe | Odds: 13-1
- No. 8: Journalism | Odds: 7-2
- No. 9: Burnham Square | Odds: 18-1
No. 10: Grande| SCRATCHED- No. 11: Flying Mohawk | Odds: 34-1
- No. 12: East Avenue | Odds: 31-1
- No. 13: Publisher | Odds: 28-1
- No. 14: Tiztastic | Odds: 18-1
- No. 15: Render Judgment | Odds: 12-1
- No. 16: Coal Battle | Odds: 27-1
- No. 17: Sandman | Odds: 5-1
- No. 18: Sovereignty | Odds: 10-1
- No. 19: Chunk of Gold | Odds: 31-1
- No. 20: Owen Almighty | Odds: 40-1
- No. 21: Baeza | Odds: 34-1
Watch the Kentucky Derby live with Fubo (free trial)
Kentucky Derby 2025: Time, TV, Streaming and where to watch
NBC will nationally broadcast the 151st Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 3, from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. The post time is set for 7:02 p.m. ET. Streaming options include Peacock, NBC's subscription streaming service, and Fubo, which carries NBC and offers a free trial to new subscribers.
- Date: Saturday, May 3
- Post time: 7:02 p.m. ET
- Location: Churchill Downs
- TV channel: NBC
- Streaming options: Peacock | Fubo (free trial)
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