Kentucky Derby forecast: Latest weather updates for Churchill Downs on Saturday
The 151st Kentucky Derby is just one day out from its running at Churchill Downs, and it looks like Mother Nature will be making an appearance.
While projected rain in the forecast will likely dampen the overall experience for travelers to Louisville, Kentucky for the Run for the Roses, the "fast two minutes in sports" will still go on.
One thing that the expected day-long downpour at Churchill Downs will have on the overall race, though, is the condition of the 1¼-mile track for the 19 horses and jockeys competing. As noted by Paste BN, there has not been a sloppy track for the Kentucky Derby since 2019, when Country House won.
The Kentucky Derby has a post time of 7:02 p.m. ET, where Journalism remains the favorite to win the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Here's what to know about the forecast for Saturday's Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, including an hour-by-hour forecast:
What is the weather forecast for the 2025 Kentucky Derby?
Below is the forecast for Saturday's 151st run of the Kentucky Derby, per the National Weather Service (as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 1):
"Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 a.m., then showers likely between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 11 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
"A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11 p.m. Chance of precipitation is 40%."
Kentucky Derby Hourly Forecast
The Weather Channel is projecting an 80% chance of rain for the overall day in Louisville on Saturday, with the rainfall being around half an inch.
Here's an hour-by-hour breakdown of Saturday's weather for the Kentucky Derby:
- 8 a.m.: 71% chance of rain
- 9 a.m.: 54% chance of rain
- 10 a.m.: 90% chance of rain
- 11 a.m.: 88% chance of rain
- Noon: 96% chance of rain
- 1 p.m.: 91% chance of rain
- 2 p.m.: 68% chance of rain
- 3 p.m.: 61% chance of rain
- 4 p.m.: 47% chance of rain
- 5 p.m.: 38% chance of rain
- 6 p.m.: 40% chance of rain
- 7 p.m.: 33% chance of rain
Kentucky Derby time today
- Date: Saturday, May 3
- Post time: 7:02 p.m. ET
- Location: Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)
The 151st Kentucky Derby has an approximate post time of 7:02 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.