Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Expert predictions for 2025 race at Churchill Downs
(This story has been updated with news that Rodriguez and Grande were scratched from the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Thursday and Friday, respectively).
The 2025 Kentucky Derby is just about here, with 20 horses racing for glory at Churchill Downs.
Journalism is viewed as the favorite, with other contenders such as Sovereignty and Sandman also in the mix. Fans will find out who takes the crown on May 3.
Legendary horse trainer Bob Baffert is back for the 2025 race, and his horse, Citizen Bull, could find themselves atop the box come Sunday. It would be quite the return for Baffert after serving a three-year suspension, although his other horse, Rodriguez, was pulled from the race.
Which horse will take the garland of roses at the 151st Kentucky Derby? Here are our expert predictions from the Paste BN Network:
Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Expert predictions
Here are our expert predictions for winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby:
- Dan Wolken, Paste BN: "I’m going to take a bit of a different path here and pick Luxor Cafe. Watching his races from Japan, I think he is a super talent with a devastating turn of foot that many Derby winners have. Now, the quality of horses he was running against in Japan is a huge question. So is the transition to America all the external factors that come with shipping a horse halfway across the world. But Forever Young’s performance last year showed that the quality of top Japanese horses is good enough now to win a Derby at some point. Maybe this year. I also expect Sovereignty to run a huge race, so that will probably be my exacta box."
- Ryan Black, Louisville Courier-Journal: Burnham Square
- C.L Brown, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
- Alexis Cubit, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
- Jason Frakes, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
- Brooks Holton, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
- Natalie Pierre, Louisville Courier-Journal: Luxor Cafe
- Prince James Story, Louisville Courier-Journal: Sovereignty
- Payton Titus, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
Kentucky Derby 2025 odds
Odds as of 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 1, according to KentuckyDerby.com
- No. 1: Citizen Bull | Odds: 16-1
- No. 2: Neoequos | Odds: 53-1
- No. 3: Final Gambit | Odds: 16-1
No. 4: Rodriguez| SCRATCHED- No. 5: American Promise | Odds: 12-1
- No. 6: Admire Daytona | Odds: 37-1
- No. 7: Luxor Cafe | Odds: 13-1
- No. 8: Journalism | Odds: 7-2
- No. 9: Burnham Square | Odds: 18-1
No. 10: Grande| SCRATCHED- No. 11: Flying Mohawk | Odds: 34-1
- No. 12: East Avenue | Odds: 31-1
- No. 13: Publisher | Odds: 28-1
- No. 14: Tiztastic | Odds: 18-1
- No. 15: Render Judgment | Odds: 12-1
- No. 16: Coal Battle | Odds: 27-1
- No. 17: Sandman | Odds: 5-1
- No. 18: Sovereignty | Odds: 10-1
- No. 19: Chunk of Gold | Odds: 31-1
- No. 20: Owen Almighty | Odds: 40-1
- No. 21: Baeza | Odds: 34-1