Who will win Kentucky Derby? Latest expert picks for 2025 race

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(This story has been updated with news that Rodriguez and Grande were scratched from the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Thursday and Friday, respectively).

The 19 horses competing at the 151st Kentucky Derby will have a little bit more room to maneuver after two entries were scratched before the race.

The latest odds from KentuckyDerby.com haven't wavered much during race week, still installing Journalism as the odds-on favorite to conquer the 1¹⁄₄ mile track, and things may change, especially if the weather doesn't cooperate by the time the race starts.

The consensus from the experts from the Paste BN Network seems to agree with the oddsmakers, with most going with Journalism, coming off a victory at the Santa Anita Derby last month, who is ridden by Umberto Rispoli and trained by Michael W. McCarthy.

Who will win the Kentucky Derby? Expert predictions

Here are our expert predictions for winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby:

• Dan Wolken, Paste BN: "I’m going to take a bit of a different path here and pick Luxor Cafe. Watching his races from Japan, I think he is a super talent with a devastating turn of foot that many Derby winners have. Now, the quality of horses he was running against in Japan is a huge question. So is the transition to America all the external factors that come with shipping a horse halfway across the world. But Forever Young’s performance last year showed that the quality of top Japanese horses is good enough now to win a Derby at some point. Maybe this year. I also expect Sovereignty to run a huge race, so that will probably be my exacta box."
• Ryan Black, Louisville Courier-Journal: Burnham Square
• C.L Brown, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
• Alexis Cubit, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
• Jason Frakes, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
• Brooks Holton, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
• Natalie Pierre, Louisville Courier-Journal: Luxor Cafe
• Prince James Story, Louisville Courier-Journal: Sovereignty
• Payton Titus, Louisville Courier-Journal: Journalism
• Ed De Rosa, Louisville Courier Journal: Chunk of Gold

Kentucky Derby 2025 odds

Odds as of 6 p.m. ET on Friday, May 2, according to KentuckyDerby.com

• No. 1: Citizen Bull | Odds: 14-1
• No. 2: Neoequos | Odds: 50-1
• No. 3: Final Gambit | Odds: 15-1
• No. 4: Rodriguez | SCRATCHED
• No. 5: American Promise | Odds: 12-1
• No. 6: Admire Daytona | Odds: 42-1
• No. 7: Luxor Cafe | Odds: 11-1
• No. 8: Journalism | Odds: 7-2
• No. 9: Burnham Square | Odds: 15-1
• No. 10: Grande | SCRATCHED
• No. 11: Flying Mohawk | Odds: 33-1
• No. 12: East Avenue | Odds: 37-1
• No. 13: Publisher | Odds: 28-1
• No. 14: Tiztastic | Odds: 19-1
• No. 15: Render Judgment | Odds: 14-1
• No. 16: Coal Battle | Odds: 27-1
• No. 17: Sandman | Odds: 9-2
• No. 18: Sovereignty | Odds: 9-1
• No. 19: Chunk of Gold | Odds: 29-1
• No. 20: Owen Almighty | Odds: 40-1
• No. 21: Baeza | Odds: 18-1