Stat watch: RBI totals often are misleading

Each week, HighHeatStats.com will focus on an advanced statistic and explain its significance. This week: High-leverage RBI.

In 2009, Theo Epstein, then the general manager of the Boston Red Sox, famously said his front office ignored raw RBI totals in evaluating players.

Here's an example of why. In 2012, these were the top players in Major League Baseball in RBI:

The second column shows each player's RBI total in high-leverage situations. These are plate appearances upon which the game outcome swung heavily — for example, with a tie score, a late-inning at-bat with runners in scoring position.

The third column is the percentage of each player's raw RBI total that came in high-leverage situations. Josh Hamilton had one of the lowest percentages in all of baseball last year, with fewer than a quarter of his RBI coming in crunchtime. Adrian Gonzalez had a much lower raw RBI total, but nearly half of them really meant something in terms of helping his team win.

Prince Fielder had 31 fewer RBI than teammate Miguel Cabrera, thanks in large part to batting behind him in the lineup. Cabrera often cleared the bases with a homer, but Fielder outclassed him in HLRBI 49 to 44.

HLRBI isn't all down to the player. Really good and really bad teams present fewer HLRBI opportunities, as the team is more likely to be well ahead or behind. Nevertheless, there's something to be said for those players who drive 'em home when the game's on the line.

Among the 72 players with at least 75 RBI in 2012, here are the top and bottom five in HLRBI%:

For the 2012 Texas Rangers, Nelson Cruz (40 HLRBI) and Adrian Beltre (32) had more meaningful RBI than Hamilton. For the 2012 Los Angeles Angels, four players (Mark Trumbo, 35; Mike Trout 33; Torii Hunter 31; and Kendrys Morales 31) had more HLRBI than Pujols. This could be bad news for the Angels in 2013, because both their sluggers had significantly padded RBI totals in 2012.

By Andrew Kamholz, HighHeatStats .com, an affiliate of Paste BN Sports Digital Properties