High Heat Stats: Fans miss mark with starters

With fan voting determining the starting lineups for the All-Star Game, popularity and sentiment often take precedence over true performance.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been among the most proactive in getting their players to the Midsummer Classic with a get-out-the-vote effort that has garnered results. All eight of their starting position players had more than a million votes. No other team had more than six.

Because the game has real postseason implications (the winning league's World Series representative enjoys home-field advantage), some critics say fans should not be the ones deciding which players start. The current system offers a bit of a compromise — the managers, rather than the fans, choose the pitchers and reserve players, most of whom are guaranteed a bit of playing time in the game.

In theory, it behooves the fans to vote for whichever player they think is best because it could potentially help their favorite team come October.

Let's look at whom the fans have voted for and where those players stand if only numbers were taken into consideration:

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American League

The fans did well with the outfield, with the two best players ranked by wins above replacement — Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels and AL leading votegetter Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays — earning starting nods. They also picked the best third baseman in the Oakland Athletics' Josh Donaldson, whose 4.6 WAR is first at his position and second in the AL overall.

However, the public failed to choose the best players at the bulk of the other positions. Blue Jays first baseman Edwin Encarnacion and Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez are the most valuable players at their position, but neither ranked in the top four in voting at their spot.

New York Yankees captain Derek Jeter led AL shortstops in voting, a move based on tradition, respect and sentimentality, much in the way Cal Ripken Jr. and his .240/.270/.324 slash line made the All-Star team in his final season.

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National League

Despite the onslaught of Milwaukee support, the fans fared better at picking representatives in the NL.

The outfield is largely correct, with Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Carlos Gomez of the Brewers. The inclusion of the Los Angeles Dodgers' Yasiel Puig is where popularity trumps numbers.

The infield is nearly perfect with WAR leaders, too: Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and Colorado Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki topped their position in votes.

The one egregious issue is the support for Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez. A reliable player with a strong offensive career, he was named the starter despite ranking 13th in the NL at his position with 0.8 WAR, while the Cincinnati Reds' Todd Frazier (3.5 WAR) came in third. This is likely due to Reds fans not showing up much, as only two of their players (Frazier and Devin Mesoraco) came in the top five at any position.

Despite the team's efforts, Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy was not the top vote-getting backstop. According to WAR, he is the best catcher in the NL. Instead, St.Louis Cardinals star Yadier Molina will make his fourth All-Star start.

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Winning WAR, losing battle

If wins above replacement determined which players start in the All-Star Game, these five non-starters in the American League and five in the National League would be in the lineup:

Source: Baseball-Reference.com; through games of July 5

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Deserving arms of WAR

The All-Star managers select the pitching staff for each league. Based solely on wins above replacement, these are the six most deserving pitchers in each league for inclusion:

Note: Jason Hammel had a 3.1 WAR with the Chicago Cubs but was traded to the AL with the Oakland Athletics.

Source: Baseball-Reference.com; through games of July 5

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