High Heat Stats: Narrowing down MVP options
With nearly two-thirds of the regular season finished, we're starting to get a good idea of the top candidates for the individual awards, and we will likely again see stars from playoff teams rewarded for big numbers in the traditional categories.
Advanced statistics just don't make an impression on the voters.
That pattern has been increasingly criticized during the last two years at length by the sabermetric crowd, a growing voice that preferred Mike Trout to Miguel Cabrera for American League MVP. Cabrera has won the award the last two season with Trout placing second.
Trout was considered the more complete player, while Cabrera had the shiny traditional marks (Triple Crown in 2012; 44 home runs, 137 RBI, .348 batting average in 2013). Cabrera's Detroit Tigers also won the American League Central both years, while Trout's Los Angeles Angels missed the playoffs with third-place finishes in the AL West.
It is unlikely an MVP will emerge from a team not well-positioned in the standings. Voters don't like rewarding good performers on bad teams. The selection of Andre Dawson of the Chicago Cubs as National League MVP in 1987 despite the Cubs finishing in last place in their division was a rare exception.
Dawson's victory is largely considered a misfire, as Tony Gwynn, Eric Davis and Dale Murphy were all more qualified that year.
Only five MVP winners have played for losing teams. Alex Rodriguez was the most recent, winning the AL honor for the 71-91 Texas Rangers in 2003. However, this could be the year that rare trend arises again.
Generally, though, we are left with two types of candidates: best overall players and best players on a division leader/wild-card team, categories that are likely to have significant overlap.
In the AL this season, the former category (according to advanced statistics) is led by Trout, Felix Hernandez, Josh Donaldson, Chris Sale and Kyle Seager, all of whom have 4.4 wins above replacement or higher.
The top players for the projected playoff teams by WAR are Steve Pearce (Baltimore Orioles), Max Scherzer (Tigers), Donaldson (Oakland Athletics), Trout (Angels) and Jose Bautista (Toronto Blue Jays).
Though 2011 AL MVP Justin Verlander is a recent exception, pitchers rarely capture the award, so we will remove them from contention. Seager is playing well, but voters are unlikely to get behind a player entering the week with just 16 homers, 67 RBI and a .279 average.
The same is true for Pearce, who has emerged from relative obscurity to post a 148 OPS+ (on-base plus slugging plus) in 63 games for the Orioles.
That leaves Trout and Donaldson. The traditional categories will be given substantial weight by voters again though, so other top candidates include Cabrera, his teammate Victor Martinez and sluggers Nelson Cruz of the Orioles and Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox. (The White Sox are a losing team, making Abreu more likely the consensus choice for rookie of the year, although he will get MVP votes.)
Let's repeat the exercise for the NL. The top five overall players by WAR are Troy Tulowitzki, Clayton Kershaw, Jason Heyward, Adam Wainwright and Giancarlo Stanton, all boasting at least 4.9 WAR.
The top players by WAR for projected playoff teams are Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals), Jonathan Lucroy (Milwaukee Brewers), Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers), Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) and Pablo Sandoval (San Francisco Giants).
The intersection of the two lists here leaves Kershaw and Heyward.
If any pitcher in baseball deserves or is likely to receive the MVP Award, it is Kershaw, who was a close second to Carlos Gomez in WAR last year and is again second this year.
Heyward is playing outstanding defense, but voters typically undervalue that facet of the game. His stats entering the week of nine homers, 42 RBI and .261 batting average don't represent a level of production voters would choose.
Here is where the voters might veer off the norm. Tulowitzki has been dominant all season, leading the NL in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while providing some of the best defense in the game. Yes, he plays for a last-place team, but he's just that good.
Tulowitzki is on the disabled list with a strained hip flexor in what has become somewhat of a trend for the talented shortstop (he has missed nearly 300 games since the start of the 2008 season). If he misses significant time, his chances of capturing the MVP are diminished.
If Tulowitzki doesn't recover, look for Kershaw to be named MVP or monster slugger Stanton to pick up the hardware if the voters show a bias against pitchers, even though Stanton's Miami Marlins are not in the playoff hunt.
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