Who has the edge in the AL wild card game, Royals or A's?
A look at the American League wild card playoff between the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics:
8:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Matchup : Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA) vs. James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA).
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This season : Royals won season series 5-2, taking three of four in Kansas City.
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Lester vs. the Royals : He's 9-3 with a 1.84 ERA – his best against any AL team – in 13 career starts. He threw a no-hitter against them in 2008. This year he beat them in all three starts, with a 2.61 ERA.
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Shields vs. the A's: Shields has a career 6-4 record with a 3.82 ERA in 15 starts against the A's, including a 1-0 mark with a 3.21 ERA in two starts this year.
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Trending up : The Royals don't provide many offensive fireworks, having hit the fewest homers in the majors this season, but they led all of baseball in steals for the second year in a row. The offense also picked up some steam when shortstop Alcides Escobar was moved to the leadoff spot on Sept. 13. He batted .375 in his last 14 games in that role as Kansas City improved its output from an average of four runs a game all season to 4.4. The A's attack, in a funk most of the second half, has gotten a recent boost from lefty-swinging outfielder Josh Reddick, who is earning some starts against left-handers. Reddick batted .485 with nine RBI in his last 10 games, including a key triple in the win that clinched a wild-card spot Sunday. The outstanding pitching that put the A's in position to reach the playoffs has continued during the offensive downturn. Oakland starters had a 2.62 ERA in their last 24 games and did not walk a batter in the final five, an Oakland record.
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Trending down : Scoring has been challenging for both teams, most of the season for Kansas City and the last two months for Oakland. The Royals did not have a single hitter reach 20 home runs or 75 RBI. Instead, they depend on speed – they're the only club with three 25-base stealers -- to manufacture runs. That approach would be much more effective if their on-base percentage were better than .314, which ranked in the middle of the pack in the AL. The Royals also lack a top-notch lefty out of the bullpen, with Francisley Bueno (4.18 ERA) being their No. 1 option. That could prove an issue against the platooning A's, although the right-handed K.C. relievers have been effective against most hitters. Oakland was leading the majors in runs scored at five a game when it traded Yoenis Cespedes on July 31. Through a combination of his absence, injuries and previously productive hitters cooling down, the A's offense struggled mightily the rest of the way. The club hit .233 after the All-Star break, lowest in the AL. At 29-38, the A's had the worst second-half record ever for a team that made the playoffs. Two major contributors to that downturn have been Brandon Moss (.173 after the ASG) and Coco Crisp, who batted .189 in his last 54 games.
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Close and late : Nobody has a better group of late-inning relievers than the Royals, who posted a 72-1 record when leading after seven innings and 79-1 when ahead after eight. Closer Greg Holland ranks second in the majors over the last two seasons with 93 saves, and first in save percentage at 94.9 (converting 93 of 98). In his last eight innings, Holland has allowed two base runners (both via walk) while striking out 14. His setup men are just as nasty. Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera combined for a 1.20 ERA, pitching 142 innings without giving up a home run. The A's feature a highly effective bullpen as well, ranking second in ERA in the AL at 2.91. Sean Doolittle took over as the closer in mid-May and finished with 22 saves in 26 chances, often overpowering hitters with his mid-90s fastball. Doolittle's 12.78 strikeouts per nine innings set an A's record (min. 60 innings). He's deftly set up by eighth-inning man Luke Gregerson (2.12 ERA) and Dan Otero (2.28), with Fernando Abad (1.57) as the lefty specialist.
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In the end : Oakland played both its series against Kansas City at a time when the Royals were enjoying their longest hot spell of the season, going 24-6 and losing consecutive games just once from July 22-Aug. 23. The only two wins the A's got out of those seven games were behind Lester, the consummate stopper. This is also a pitcher with a 2.11 ERA in 13 postseason outings, including two wins and an 0.59 ERA in last year's World Series. (How did he not win Series MVP honors? Oh yeah, there was that Big Papi guy.) In a one-game elimination, the smart money is on the team that has a hot starter with a history of postseason success. That's the definition of Lester, who went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in his 11 starts for Oakland. Shields comes in with the better nickname – Big Game James – and he did have a fine September, registering a 2.31 ERA. But his postseason credentials – 2-4, 4.98 ERA – are not nearly as impressive. The A's sputtering offense should be able to scratch out just enough runs to advance behind Lester and a solid bullpen.
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Relievers:
Athletics: LH Sean Doolittle (2-4, 2.73, 22/26 saves, 89/8 K/BB ratio), RH Luke Gregerson (5-5, 3.12, 3 saves), RH Ryan Cook (1-3, 3.42, 1 save), RH Dan Otero (8-2, 2.28, 1 save), LH Fernando Abad (2-4, 1.57), LH Eric O'Flaherty (1-0, 2.25, 1 save), LH Drew Pomeranz (5-4, 2.35).
Royals: RH Greg Holland (1-3, 1.44, 46/48 saves), RH Wade Davis (9-2, 1.00), RH Kelvin Herrera (4-3, 1.41), LH Brandon Finnegan (0-1, 1.29), RH Jason Frasor (3-0, 1.53), LH Francisley Bueno (0-0, 4.18), LH Scott Downs (0-2, 3.14), RH Aaron Crow (6-1, 4.12).